Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Associate’s Degrees
3. Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Bachelor’s Degrees
4. Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Master’s Degrees
5. Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Doctor’s Degrees

Introduction

Long-term growth in enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions has been reflected by increases in the numbers of associate’s, bachelor’s, master’s, and doctor’s degrees conferred (tables 13 and 21). Increases in the number of degrees conferred are expected to continue between academic year 2016–17, the last year of actual data, and academic year 2028–29. During that period, the number of associate’s degrees is projected to increase 1 percent, the number of bachelor’s degrees is projected to increase 3 percent, and the numbers of master’s degrees and doctor’s degrees are each projected to increase 4 percent.

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of the number of degrees conferred are related to projections of the college-age populations developed by the Census Bureau and college enrollments from this report. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.6.

Factors that were not considered

Some factors that may affect future numbers of degrees, such as choice of degree and labor force requirements, were not included in the projection models.

Changes in degree classifications

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) no longer uses the first-professional degree classification. Beginning with academic year 2009–10, most degrees formerly classified as first-professional—such as M.D., D.D.S., and law degrees—are classified as doctor’s degrees. However, master’s of divinity degrees are now classified as master’s degrees. This is the eighth edition of Projections of Education Statistics to use these new classifications. With this change, the actual numbers of master’s and doctor’s degrees conferred are higher than the actual numbers in Projections of Education Statistics to 2020 and earlier editions of this report. The revisions of actual numbers are reflected in the projections.

Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Associate’s Degrees

Figure 25. Actual and projected numbers for associate’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall 2004 through Fall 2017, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Bachelor’s Degrees

Figure 26. Actual and projected numbers for bachelor’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Fall 2004 through Fall 2017, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Master’s Degrees

Figure 27. Actual and projected numbers for master’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: Includes some degrees formerly classified as first-professional, such as divinity degrees (M.Div. and M.H.L./Rav). Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Fall 2004 through Fall 2017, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Degrees, by Level of Degree and Sex of Recipient: Doctor’s Degrees

Figure 28. Actual and projected numbers for doctor’s degrees conferred by degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex of recipient: Academic years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: Doctor’s degrees include Ph.D., Ed.D., and comparable degrees at the doctoral level. Includes most degrees formerly classified as first-professional, such as M.D., D.D.S., and law degrees. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Fall 2004 through Fall 2017, Completions component; and Degrees Conferred Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

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