High School Graduates

Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. National
3. State and Regional (Public School Data): High School Graduates by State
4. State and Regional (Public School Data): High School Graduates by Region
5. Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Introduction

The number of high school graduates increased nationally by 14 percent between 2003–04 and 2012–13, the last year of actual data for public schools (table 9). The number of high school graduates is projected to be 7 percent higher in 2028–29 than in 2012–13. The numbers of both public and private high school graduates are projected to be higher in 2028–29 than in 2012–13. The numbers of public high school graduates are projected to be higher in 2028–29 than in 2012–13 in the South and West and lower in the Midwest and Northeast (table 10).

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of high school graduates are related to projections of 12th-graders and the historical relationship between the number of 12th-graders and the number of high school graduates. The methodology implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, transfers to and from public schools, and state-level migration. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.3.

Factors that were not considered

The projections do not assume changes or attitudes that may affect the high school graduate levels. For example, they do not account for changes in policies influencing graduation requirements.

About high school graduates

A high school graduate is defined as an individual who has received formal recognition from school authorities, by the granting of a diploma, for completing a prescribed course of study. This definition does not include other high school completers or high school equivalency recipients.

High school graduates of Two or more races

This is the sixth edition of Projections of Education Statistics to include actual and projected numbers for high school graduates of Two or more races. Collection of high school graduate data for this racial/ethnic group began in 2008–09. The actual values from 2008–09 through 2012–13 and all the projected values for high school graduates of the other racial/ethnic groups, except Hispanics, are lower than they would have been if this racial/ethnic category had not been added.

Accuracy of Projections

For National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projections of public high school graduates produced over the last 28 editions, the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 1.0, 1.1, 2.5, and 5.1, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.0 percent of the actual value, on average. For NCES projections of private high school graduates produced over the last 17 editions, the MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 3.0, 2.5, 4.9, and 7.7 percent, respectively. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.

National

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: The private school data for 2014–15 are an actual number. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years and the numbers collected for high school graduates are for the preceding year, private school numbers for odd years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs, when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2004–05 through 2005–06; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2005–06 through 2012–13; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2004–05 through 2015–16; and National High School Graduates Projection Model, 1972–73 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

The total number of high school graduates

▲ increased 14 percent between 2003–04 and 2012–13 (3.1 million versus 3.5 million); and

▲ is projected to increase 7 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 to 3.7 million.

The number of public high school graduates

▲ increased 15 percent between 2003–04 and 2012–13 (2.8 million versus 3.2 million); and

▲ is projected to increase 6 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 to 3.4 million.

The number of private high school graduates

▲ was 3 percent higher in 2012–13 than in 2003–04 (309,000 versus 301,000); and

▲ is projected to increase 17 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 to 360,000.

For more information: Table 9

State and Regional (Public School Data): High School Graduates by State

Figure 10. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2012–13 and 2028–29

NOTE: Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs, when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-14, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2012–13; and State Public High School Graduates Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

High school graduates by state

The number of public high school graduates is projected to be higher in 2028–29 than in 2012–13. This plays out differently among the states.

▼ High school graduates are projected to be lower in 2028–29 than in 2012–13 for 17 states, with projected high school graduates

● less than 5 percent lower in 7 states; and

● 5 percent or more lower in 10 states.

▲ High school graduates are projected to be higher in 2028–29 than in 2012–13 for 33 states and the District of Columbia, with projected high school graduates

● 5 percent or more higher in 26 states and the District of Columbia; and

● less than 5 percent higher in 7 states.

For more information: Table 10

State and Regional (Public School Data): High School Graduates by Region

Figure 11. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2009–10, 2012–13, and 2028–29

NOTE: Includes graduates of regular day school programs. Excludes graduates of other programs, when separately reported, and recipients of high school equivalency certificates. See the glossary for a list of states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-14, appendix A. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2009–10; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2012–13; and State Public High School Graduates Projection Model, 1980–81 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

High school graduates by region

The number of public high school graduates is projected to

▼ be 4 percent lower in 2028–29 than in 2012–13 in the Northeast;

▼ be 1 percent lower in 2028–29 than in 2012–13 in the Midwest;

▲ increase 15 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 in the South; and

▲ increase 7 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 in the West.

For more information: Table 10

Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Figure 12. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by race/ethnicity: School years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Data on students of Two or more races were not collected separately prior to 2007–08, and data on students of Two or more races from 2007–08 through 2009–10 were not reported by all states. Therefore, the data are not comparable to figures for 2010–11 and later years. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2009–10; “State Dropout and Completion Data File,” 2010–11 through 2012–13; and National Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1995–96 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

High school graduates by race/ethnicity

The number of public high school graduates is projected to

▼ decrease 15 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 (1,791,000 versus 1,514,000) for students who are White;

▼ be 3 percent lower in 2028–29 than in 2012–13 (448,000 versus 462,000) for students who are Black;

▲ increase 49 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 (640,000 versus 955,000) for students who are Hispanic;

▲ increase 23 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 (179,000 versus 221,000) for students who are Asian/Pacific Islander;

▼ decrease 11 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 (31,000 versus 28,000) for students who are American Indian/ Alaska Native; and

▲ increase 199 percent between 2012–13 and 2028–29 (66,000 versus 196,000) for students who are of Two or more races.

For more information: Table 11