Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. Total Enrollment
3. Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Age of Student
4. Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Sex of Student
5. Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Attendance Status
6. Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Level of Student
7. Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Race/Ethnicity
8. Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Public and Private Institutions
9. First-Time Freshmen Enrollment
10. Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment, by Control of Institution

Introduction

Total enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is expected to increase 3 percent between fall 2017, the last year of actual data, and fall 2028 (table 13). Degree-granting institutions are postsecondary institutions that provide study beyond secondary school and offer programs terminating in an associate’s, baccalaureate, or higher degree and participate in federal financial aid programs. Differential growth is expected by student characteristics such as age, sex, and attendance status (part-time or full-time). Enrollment is expected to increase in both public and private degree-granting postsecondary institutions.

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of enrollment levels are related to projections of college-age populations, disposable income, and unemployment rates. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.5. An important factor in the enrollment projections is the expected change in the population of 18- to 29-year-olds from 2003 through 2028 (table B-3 in appendix B).

Factors that were not considered

The enrollment projections do not take into account such factors as the cost of a college education, the economic value of an education, and the impact of distance learning due to technological changes. These factors may produce changes in enrollment levels. The racial/ethnic backgrounds of nonresident aliens are not known.

Figure 15. Actual and projected population numbers for 18- to 24-year-olds and 25- to 29-year-olds: 2003 through 2028

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Projections are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2017 National Population Projections, ratio-adjusted to line up with the most recent historical estimate.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Population Estimates, July 19, 2018 from https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/datasets/2010-2017/; and Population Projections, retrieved October 10, 2018, from https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2017/demo/popproj/2017-popproj.html. (This figure was prepared May 2019.)

Total Enrollment

Figure 16. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Age of Student

Figure 17. Actual and projected numbers for total enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by age group: Fall 2000, fall 2017, and fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Distributions by age are estimates based on samples of the civilian noninstitutional population from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) Spring 2001 and Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2028; and U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, “Social and Economic Characteristics of Students,” 2000 and 2017. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Sex of Student

Figure 18. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Attendance Status

Figure 19. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by attendance status: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Level of Student

Figure 20. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by level of enrollment: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Race/Ethnicity

Figure 21. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment of U.S. residents in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1980 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Enrollment by Selected Characteristics and Control of Institution: Public and Private Institutions

Figure 22. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by control of institution: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

First-Time Freshmen Enrollment

Figure 23. Actual and projected numbers for total first-time degree/certificate-seeking students in degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and First-Time Freshmen Projection Model, 1980 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment, by Control of Institution

Figure 24. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in all degree-granting postsecondary institutions, by sex: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Full-time-equivalent fall enrollment is the full-time enrollment, plus the full-time-equivalent of the part-time students. Degree-granting institutions grant associate’s or higher degrees and participate in Title IV federal financial aid programs. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), Spring 2004 through Spring 2018, Fall Enrollment component; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Projection Model, 2000 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

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