Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools: Number of Teachers
3. Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools: Pupil/Teacher Ratios
4. Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools: New Teacher Hires

Introduction

Between fall 2016, the last year of actual public school data, and fall 2028, the number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to increase 7 percent (table 8). The increase is projected to occur in both public and private schools. Both public and private schools are projected to experience a decline in pupil/teacher ratios. The annual number of new teacher hires is projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016 in both public and private schools.

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of the number of elementary and secondary teachers are related to projected levels of enrollments and education revenue receipts from state sources per capita. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.2.

Factors that were not considered

The projections do not take into account possible changes in the number of teachers due to the effects of government policies.

About pupil/teacher ratios

The overall elementary and secondary pupil/teacher ratio and pupil/teacher ratios for public and private schools were computed based on elementary and secondary enrollment and the number of classroom teachers by control of school.

About new teacher hires

A teacher is considered to be a new teacher hire for a certain control of school (public or private) for a given year if the teacher teaches in that control that year but had not taught in that control in the previous year. A teacher who moves from teaching in one control of school to the other control is considered a new teacher hire, but a teacher who moves from one school to another school in the same control is not considered a new teacher hire.

Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools: Number of Teachers

Figure 6. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary teachers, by control of school: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd- numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). Counts of private school teachers include prekindergarten through grade 12 in schools offering kindergarten or higher grades. Counts of public school teachers include prekindergarten through grade 12. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2003–04 through 2015–16; Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1973 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools: Pupil/Teacher Ratios

Figure 7. Actual and projected numbers for the pupil/teacher ratios in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd- numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). Counts of private school teachers and enrollment include prekindergarten through grade 12 in schools offering kindergarten or higher grades. Counts of public school teachers and enrollment include prekindergarten through grade 12. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years, 2003–04 through 2015–16; National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2028; and Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1973 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Teachers in Elementary and Secondary Schools: New Teacher Hires

Figure 8. Actual and projected numbers for elementary and secondary new teacher hires, by control of school: Fall 2003, fall 2016, and fall 2028

NOTE: Data for teachers are expressed in full-time equivalents (FTE). A teacher is considered to be a new hire for a public or private school if the teacher had not taught in that control of school in the previous year. A teacher who moves from a public to private or a private to public school is considered a new teacher hire, but a teacher who moves from one public school to another public school or one private school to another private school is not considered a new teacher hire. For more information about the New Teacher Hires Model, see appendix A.2. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 and 2015–16; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), 2003–04 and 2015–16; Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS), “Public School Teacher Data File,” 2003–04; “Private School Teacher Data File,” 2003–04; National Teacher Principal Survey (NTPS) 2015–16; Elementary and Secondary Teacher Projection Model, 1973 through 2028, and New Teacher Hires Projection Model, 1988 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

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