Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. National
3. State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by State
4. State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by Region
5. Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Introduction

Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment was 56 million in fall 2016, representing a 3 percent increase since fall 2003 (table 1). Between fall 2016, the last year of actual public school data, and fall 2028, a further increase of 2 percent is expected. Both public and private school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016. Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016 for Blacks, Hispanics, Asians/Pacific Islanders, and students of Two or more races (table 6). Enrollment is projected to be lower for Whites and American Indians/Alaska Natives. Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016 for the South and West, and to be lower for the Northeast and Midwest (table 3).

Factors affecting the projections

The grade progression rate method was used to project school enrollments. This method assumes that future trends in factors affecting enrollments will be consistent with past patterns. It implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, transfers to and from public schools, and state-level migration. See appendixes A.0 and A.1 for more details.

Factors that were not considered

The projections do not assume changes in policies or attitudes that may affect enrollment levels. For example, they do not account for changing state and local policies on prekindergarten (preK) and kindergarten programs. Continued expansion of these programs could lead to higher enrollments at the elementary school level. Projections exclude the number of students who are homeschooled.

Students of Two or more races

This is the eighth edition of Projections of Education Statistics to include actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools for students of Two or more races. Collection of enrollment data for this racial/ethnic group began in 2008. The actual values from 2008 through 2016 and all the projected values for enrollments of the other racial/ethnic groups are lower than they would have been if this racial/ethnic category had not been added.

National

Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: PreK = prekindergarten. Enrollment numbers for prekindergarten through 12th grade and prekindergarten through 8th grade include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2003–04 through 2015–16; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Private school numbers include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2003–04 through 2015–16; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by State

Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2016 and fall 2028

NOTE: Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2016–17; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1980 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by Region

Figure 4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2010, fall 2016, and fall 2028

NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. See the glossary for a list of the states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Although rounded numbers are displayed, the figures are based on unrounded estimates. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 and 2016–17; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1980 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2003 through fall 2028

NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Enrollment data for students not reported by race/ethnicity were prorated by state and grade to match state totals. Data on students of Two or more races were not collected separately prior to 2008 and data on students of Two or more races from 2008 and 2009 were not reported by all states. Only in 2010 and later years were those data available for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Total counts of ungraded students were prorated to prekindergarten through grade 8 and grades 9 through 12 based on prior reports. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; and National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1994 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

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