Projections of Education Statistics to 2028
Section Contents
1. Introduction
2. National
3. State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by State
4. State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by Region
5. Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)
Introduction
Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment was 56 million in fall 2016, representing a 3 percent increase since fall 2003 (table 1). Between fall 2016, the last year of actual public school data, and fall 2028, a further increase of 2 percent is expected. Both public and private school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016. Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016 for Blacks, Hispanics, Asians/Pacific Islanders, and students of Two or more races (table 6). Enrollment is projected to be lower for Whites and American Indians/Alaska Natives. Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016 for the South and West, and to be lower for the Northeast and Midwest (table 3).
Factors affecting the projections
The grade progression rate method was used to project school enrollments. This method assumes that future trends in factors affecting enrollments will be consistent with past patterns. It implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, transfers to and from public schools, and state-level migration. See appendixes A.0 and A.1 for more details.
Factors that were not considered
The projections do not assume changes in policies or attitudes that may affect enrollment levels. For example, they do not account for changing state and local policies on prekindergarten (preK) and kindergarten programs. Continued expansion of these programs could lead to higher enrollments at the elementary school level. Projections exclude the number of students who are homeschooled.
Students of Two or more races
This is the eighth edition of Projections of Education Statistics to include actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools for students of Two or more races. Collection of enrollment data for this racial/ethnic group began in 2008. The actual values from 2008 through 2016 and all the projected values for enrollments of the other racial/ethnic groups are lower than they would have been if this racial/ethnic category had not been added.
Accuracy of Projections
An analysis of projection errors from the past 35 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out for projections of public school enrollment in grades prekindergarten–12 were 0.3, 0.5, 1.2, and 2.6 percent, respectively. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that the methodology used by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) has produced projections that have, on average, deviated from actual observed values by 0.3 percent. For projections of public school enrollment in grades prekindergarten–8, the MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 0.3, 0.6, 1.4, and 3.3 percent, respectively, while the MAPEs for projections of public school enrollment in grades 9–12 were 0.4, 0.7, 1.3, and 2.3 percent, respectively, for the same lead times. An analysis of projection errors from the past 17 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that the MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out for projections of private school enrollment in grades prekindergarten–12 were 2.8, 5.5, 7.3, and 17.3 percent, respectively. For projections of private school enrollment in grades prekindergarten–8, the MAPEs for lead times of 1, 2, 5, and 10 years out were 3.1, 5.8, 8.3, and 21.5 percent, respectively, while the MAPEs for projections of private school enrollment in grades 9–12 were 2.9, 4.2, 4.1, and 6.8 percent, respectively, for the same lead times. For more information, see table A-2 in appendix A.
National
Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2003 through fall 2028
NOTE: PreK = prekindergarten. Enrollment numbers for prekindergarten through 12th grade and prekindergarten through 8th grade include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2003–04 through 2015–16; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)
Total elementary and secondary enrollment
▲ increased 3 percent between 2003 and 2016 (54.6 million versus 56.4 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 2 percent between 2016 and 2028 to 57.4 million.
Enrollment in prekindergarten through grade 8
▲ increased 2 percent between 2003 and 2016 (39.0 million versus 39.8 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 2 percent between 2016 and 2028 to 40.5 million.
Enrollment in grades 9–12
▲ was 6 percent higher in 2016 than in 2003 (16.6 million versus 15.7 million); and
▲ is projected to be 1 percent higher in 2028 (16.9 million) than in 2016.
For more information: Tables 1 and 2
Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2003 through fall 2028
NOTE: Private school numbers include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2003–04 through 2015–16; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)
Enrollment by control of school
Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools
▲ increased 4 percent between 2003 and 2016 (48.5 million versus 50.6 million); and
▲ is projected to increase 2 percent between 2016 and 2028 to 51.4 million.
Enrollment in private elementary and secondary schools
▼ decreased 5 percent between 2003 and 2016 (6.1 million versus 5.8 million); and
▲ is projected to increase by 3 percent between 2016 and 2028 to 6.0 million.
For more information: Table 1
State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by State
Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2016 and fall 2028

NOTE: Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2016–17; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1980 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)
Enrollment by state
The expected 2 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2016 and 2028 plays out differently among the states.
▲ Enrollments are projected to be lower in 2028 than in 2016 for 22 states, with projected enrollments
● 5 percent or more lower in 9 states; and
● less than 5 percent lower in 13 states.
▲ Enrollments are projected to be higher in 2028 than in 2016 for 28 states and the District of Columbia, with projected enrollments
● less than 5 percent higher in 13 states; and
● 5 percent or more higher in 15 states and the District of Columbia.
For more information: Tables 3 through 5
State and Regional (Public School Data): Enrollment by Region
Figure 4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2010, fall 2016, and fall 2028
NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. See the glossary for a list of the states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Although rounded numbers are displayed, the figures are based on unrounded estimates. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 and 2016–17; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1980 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)
Enrollment by region
Public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to
▼ decrease 4 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students in the Northeast;
▼ decrease 2 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students in the Midwest;
▲ increase 5 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students in the South; and
▲ increase 2 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students in the West.
For more information: Tables 3 through 5
Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)
Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2003 through fall 2028
NOTE: Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Enrollment data for students not reported by race/ethnicity were prorated by state and grade to match state totals. Data on students of Two or more races were not collected separately prior to 2008 and data on students of Two or more races from 2008 and 2009 were not reported by all states. Only in 2010 and later years were those data available for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Total counts of ungraded students were prorated to prekindergarten through grade 8 and grades 9 through 12 based on prior reports. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; and National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, 1994 through 2028. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)
Enrollment by race/ethnicity
Enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is projected to
▼ decrease 7 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students who are White;
▲ increase 1 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students who are Black;
▲ increase 8 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students who are Hispanic;
▲ increase 20 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students who are Asian/Pacific Islander;
▼ decrease 7 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students who are American Indian/Alaska Native; and
▲ increase 51 percent between 2016 and 2028 for students who are of Two or more races. (The line for this racial/ethnic group in figure 5 begins in 2010 when data for that group became available for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.)
For more information: Tables 6 and 7