Expenditures for Public Elementary and Secondary Education

Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. Current Expenditures
3. Current Expenditures Per Pupil

Introduction

Current expenditures (e.g., instruction and support services) for public elementary and secondary education are projected to increase 13 percent in constant dollars (adjusted for inflation) between school years 2015–16, the last year of actual data, and 2028–29 (table 12).

Factors affecting the projections

The projections of current expenditures are related to projections of economic growth as measured by disposable income per capita and assistance by state governments to local governments. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.4.

Factors that were not considered

Many factors that may affect future school expenditures were not considered in the production of these projections. Such factors include policy initiatives as well as potential changes in the age distribution of elementary and secondary teachers as older teachers retire and are replaced by younger teachers, or as older teachers put off retirement for various reasons.

About constant dollars and current dollars

Throughout this section, projections of current expenditures are presented in constant 2017–18 dollars. The reference tables, later in this report, present these data both in constant 2017–18 dollars and in current dollars. The projections were developed in constant dollars and then placed in current dollars using projections for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (table B-5 in appendix B).

Accuracy of Projections

An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in the past 28 editions of Projections of Education Statistics that contained expenditure projections indicates that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for total current expenditures in constant dollars were 1.7 percent for 1 year out, 2.6 percent for 2 years out, 3.1 percent for 5 years out, and 7.2 percent for 10 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.7 percent of the actual value, on average. MAPEs for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in constant dollars were 1.7 percent for 1 year out, 2.6 percent for 2 years out, 3.3 percent for 5 years out, and 7.5 percent for 10 years out. See appendix A for further discussion of the accuracy of recent projections of current expenditures, and see table A-2 in appendix A for the MAPEs of these projections.

Current Expenditures

Figure 13. Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2017–18 dollars): School years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: Numbers were placed in constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. For more detail about CPI, see table B-5 in appendix B. Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food services, and enterprise operations. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “National Public Education Financial Survey,” 2003–04 through 2015–16; Public Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Projection Model, 1969–70 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Current expenditures

Current expenditures in constant 2017–18 dollars

▲ increased 15 percent from 2003–04 to 2015–16 ($538 billion versus $621 billion); and

▲ are projected to increase 13 percent, to $701 billion, from 2015–16 to 2028–29.

For more information: Table 12

Current Expenditures Per Pupil

Figure 14. Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2017–18 dollars): School years 2003–04 through 2028–29

NOTE: Numbers were placed in constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. For more detail about CPI, see table B-5 in appendix B. Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food services, and enterprise operations. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2003–04 through 2016–17; “National Public Education Financial Survey,” 2003–04 through 2015–16; National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, 1972 through 2028; and Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Projection Model, 1969–70 through 2028–29. (This figure was prepared April 2019.)

Current expenditures per pupil

Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in constant 2017– 18 dollars

▲ increased 11 percent from 2003–04 to 2015–16 ($11,100 versus $12,300); and

▲ are projected to increase 12 percent, to $13,800, from 2015–16 to 2028–29.

For more information: Table 12