Trends in High School Dropout and Completion Rates in the United States
The event dropout rate is the percentage of 15- to 24-year-olds in grades 10 through 12 who leave high school between the beginning of one school year and the beginning of the next without earning a high school diploma or an alternative credential such as a GED. The event dropout rate provides information about the rate at which U.S. high school students are leaving school without receiving a high school credential. The measure can be used to study student experiences in the U.S. secondary school system in a given year. The status dropout rates presented in Indicator 2, on the other hand, focus on the educational attainment of the overall 16- to 24-year-old population in the United States, regardless of when or where they attended school.
The event dropout rates presented in this indicator are based on data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). CPS data have been collected annually for decades, allowing for the analysis of longterm trends. Many of the event dropout rate estimates are based on responses from a relatively small number of survey respondents. As a result, some differences that seem substantial are not statistically significant.
Total event dropout rates
Between October 2016 and October 2017, the number of 15- to 24-year-olds who left school without obtaining a high school credential was approximately 523,000. These event dropouts accounted for 4.7 percent of the 11.1 million 15- to 24-year-olds enrolled in grades 10 through 12 in 2016 (figure 1.1 and table 1.1). The event dropout rate in 2017 was lower than the rate in 1977 (when it was 6.5 percent)1; however, the 2017 rate was higher than the rate in 2007 (when it was 3.5 percent; figure 1.2 and table 1.2)
Figure 1.1. Percentage of grade 10–12 dropouts among persons 15 to 24 years old (event dropout rate), by selected characteristics: October 2017
! Interpret data with caution. The coefficient of variation (CV) for this estimate is between 30 and 50 percent.
‡ Reporting standards not met. Either there are too few cases for a reliable estimate or the coefficient of variation (CV) is 50 percent or greater.
NOTE: The event dropout rate is the percentage of youth ages 15 to 24 who dropped out of grades 10–12 between one October and the next (e.g., October
2016 to October 2017). Dropping out is defined as leaving school without a high school diploma or an alternative credential such as a GED. Race categories
exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Individuals identified as having a disability reported difficulty with at least one of the following: hearing, seeing even
when wearing glasses, walking or climbing stairs, dressing or bathing, doing errands alone, concentrating, remembering, or making decisions. Age is at the
time of data collection. Data are based on sample surveys of the civilian noninstitutionalized population, which excludes persons in the military and persons
living in institutions (e.g., prisons or nursing facilities). Although rounded numbers are displayed, the figures are based on unrounded data.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), October 2017. See table 1.1.
Event dropout rates by race/ethnicity
In 2017, the event dropout rate for Hispanic 15- to 24-year-olds was higher than the rate for White 15- to 24-year-olds (6.5 percent vs. 3.9 percent), but not measurably different from the rate for 15- to 24-year-olds who were Black (5.5 percent), Asian (4.7 percent), and American Indian/Alaska Native (4.4 percent; figure 1.1 and table 1.1). There were no measurable differences in event dropout rates between 15- to 24-year-olds who were Black, Asian, American Indian/Alaska Native, and White.2
Figure 1.2. Percentage of grade 10–12 dropouts among persons 15 to 24 years old (event dropout rate): October 1977 through 2017
1 Includes other racial/ethnic categories not separately shown.
NOTE: The event dropout rate is the percentage of youth ages 15 to 24 who dropped out of grades 10–12 between one October and the next (e.g., October
2016 to October 2017). Dropping out is defined as leaving school without a high school diploma or an alternative credential such as a GED. Race categories
exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. White and Black exclude persons of Two or more races after 2002. Because of changes in data collection procedures,
data for 1992 and later years may not be comparable with figures for prior years. Some estimates differ from those in previously published reports because of
data updates. Data are based on sample surveys of the civilian noninstitutionalized population, which excludes persons in the military and persons living in
institutions (e.g., prisons or nursing facilities).
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), October, 1977 through 2017. See table 1.2.
The event dropout rate for White 15- to 24-year-olds declined from 6.1 percent in 1977 to 3.9 percent in 2017 (figure 1.2 and table 1.2), but there was no measurable difference between the event dropout rates in 1977 and 2017 for either Black or Hispanic 15- to 24-year-olds. In addition, while the event dropout rate for White 15- to 24-year-olds increased from 2.2 percent in 2007 to 3.9 percent in 2017, there was no measurable difference between the rates in 2007 and 2017 for either Black or Hispanic 15- to 24-year-olds.
Event dropout rates by sex
In 2017, the event dropout rate for 15- to 24-year-old males (5.4 percent) was higher than the rate for females (3.9 percent; figure 1.1 and table 1.2); however, there generally have not been measurable differences between the event dropout rates for male and female 15- to 24-year-olds over the past 40 years (table 1.2). During this period, the only other years in which there were measurable differences between male and female event dropout rates were 1978, 2000, and 2001. As in 2017, in each of these three years the event dropout rate for males was higher than the rate for females.
Event dropout rates by disability status
The 2017 event dropout rate for 15- to 24-year-olds with disabilities (6.2 percent) was not measurably different from the rate for their peers without disabilities (4.6 percent; figure 1.1 and table 1.1).
Event dropout rates by age
Event dropout rates by age group—4.5 percent for 15- to 16-year-olds, 4.1 percent for 17-year-olds, 5.2 percent for 18-year-olds, 6.1 percent for 19-year-olds, and 5.8 percent for 20- to 24-year-olds—were not measurably different from each other in 2017 (table 1.1).
Event dropout rates by region
For the most part, the event dropout rates in the four U.S. geographic regions defined by the U.S. Census Bureau were not measurably different from each other in 2017. The only exception was that the event dropout rate for 15- to 24-year-olds in the Midwest (3.2 percent; table 1.1) was lower than that in the South (5.2 percent). Event dropout rates were 5.1 percent in the West and 4.9 percent in the Northeast in 2017.
1 Because of changes in data collection procedures, use caution when comparing data for 1992 and later years to earlier data. For more
information on the data collection changes, see Kaufman, Alt, and Chapman (2004).
2 Reliable estimates were not available for 15- to 24-year-olds who were Pacific Islander or of Two or more races in 2017.
