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NAEP Technical DocumentationLong-Term Trend Age Distribution Fractions for the Age 17 Sample
Estimates from the October 2000 Current Population Survey (CPS) School Supplement were utilized to provide the percentages of sixteen-year-olds within each of ninth, tenth, eleventh, and twelfth grades. Sixteen-year-olds are used rather than seventeen-year-olds because of the special difficulties of adult education students being added in to twelfth grade in the CPS (which affects the twelfth grade age distributions, which then affects seventeen- and eighteen-year-olds' grade distributions).
| Grade | Total |
|---|---|
| Ninth grade | 177,000 |
| Tenth grade | 922,000 |
| Eleventh grade | 2,391,000 |
| Twelfth grade | 191,000 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | |
These enrollment data were allocated across the NAEP regions, using the weighted percentages for each NAEP region from the NAEP 2002 reading operational study1. The four NAEP region percentages for ninth grade (two years younger than the target grade) were derived from the October 1981 through September 1982 student group of the NAEP 2002 twelfth grade student sample (these are students who were two years older than the modal year for NAEP 2002 twelfth grade students, which is October 1983 through September 1984). These NAEP 2002 percentages as well as the Census region estimates are given in the following table.
| NAEP region | NAEP 2002 aggregated weights of 9-81 through 10-82 reading operational students | Weighted percent of birth-year group from NAEP 2002 | Estimated grade-NAEP region total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 45,000 | 100.0 | 177,000 |
| Northeast | 8,000 | 17.7 | 31,000 |
| Southeast | 13,000 | 27.9 | 49,000 |
| Central | 8,000 | 18.1 | 32,000 |
| West | 16,000 | 36.3 | 64,000 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | |||
Similarly, the tenth grade estimates (one year younger than the target grade) were derived from the October 1982 through September 1983 subgroup of the NAEP 2002 twelfth grade student sample (these are students who are one year older than the modal year for NAEP 2002 twelfth grade students, which is October 1983 through September 1984). These NAEP 2002 percentages as well as the NAEP region estimates are given in the table below.
| NAEP region | NAEP 2002 aggregated weights of 9-81 through 10-82 reading operational students | Weighted percent of birth-year group from NAEP 2002 | Estimated grade-NAEP region total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 559,000 | 100.0 | 922,000 |
| Northeast | 109,000 | 19.5 | 180,000 |
| Southeast | 124,000 | 22.1 | 204,000 |
| Central | 160,000 | 28.7 | 264,000 |
| West | 166,000 | 29.7 | 274,000 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | |||
The NAEP region percentages for eleventh grade and twelfth grade (the target grade and one year older than the target grade) were obtained from the October 1983 through September 1984 and October 1984 through September 1985 subgroups from the NAEP 2002 twelfth grade student sample. These are students who were the same age as the modal year (one year younger than the modal year) for NAEP 2002 twelfth grade students, which is October 1983 through September 1984. These NAEP 2002 percentages as well as the NAEP region estimates are given in the tables below.
| NAEP region | NAEP 2002 aggregated weights of 9-81 through 10-82 reading operational students | Weighted percent of birth-year group from NAEP 2002 | Estimated grade-NAEP region total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,984,000 | 100.0 | 2,391,000 |
| Northeast | 432,000 | 21.8 | 520,000 |
| Southeast | 461,000 | 23.2 | 555,000 |
| Central | 457,000 | 23.0 | 551,000 |
| West | 635,000 | 32.0 | 765,000 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | |||
| NAEP region | NAEP 2002 aggregated weights of 9-81 through 10-82 reading operational students | Weighted percent of birth-year group from NAEP 2002 | Estimated grade-NAEP region total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 147,000 | 100.0 | 191,000 |
| Northeast | 49,000 | 33.2 | 63,000 |
| Southeast | 24,000 | 16.1 | 31,000 |
| Central | 13,000 | 9.0 | 17,000 |
| West | 61,000 | 41.7 | 80,000 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | |||
The last step in the process re-ordered the 16 grade-NAEP region totals by NAEP region, generating percentages for each grade within each NAEP region, as given in the tables below.
| Grade | Estimated NAEP region by grade totals | Percentage within NAEP region |
|---|---|---|
| Total Northeast | 795,000 | 100.0 |
| Ninth | 31,000 | 4.0 |
| Tenth | 180,000 | 22.7 |
| Eleventh | 520,000 | 65.4 |
| Twelfth | 63,000 | 8.0 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | ||
| Grade | Estimated NAEP region by grade totals | Percentage within NAEP region |
|---|---|---|
| Total Southeast | 839,000 | 100.0 |
| Ninth | 49,000 | 5.9 |
| Tenth | 204,000 | 24.3 |
| Eleventh | 555,000 | 66.2 |
| Twelfth | 31,000 | 3.7 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | ||
| Grade | Estimated NAEP region by grade totals | Percentage within NAEP region |
|---|---|---|
| Total Central | 865,000 | 100.0 |
| Ninth | 32,000 | 3.7 |
| Tenth | 264,000 | 30.6 |
| Eleventh | 551,000 | 63.7 |
| Twelfth | 17,000 | 2.0 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | ||
| Grade | Estimated NAEP region by grade totals | Percentage within NAEP region |
|---|---|---|
| Total West | 1,182,000 | 100.0 |
| Ninth | 64,000 | 5.4 |
| Tenth | 274,000 | 23.1 |
| Eleventh | 765,000 | 64.7 |
| Twelfth | 80,000 | 6.7 |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2004. | ||
1 Note that the process was simplified by only using the reading operational students, not reading and writing operational students as in Age 9 and Age 13.
Last updated 15 April 2009 (RF)
