Projections of Education Statistics to 2030
Section Contents
1. Introduction
2. Current Expenditures
3. Current Expenditures Per Pupil
Introduction
Current expenditures (e.g., instruction and support services) for public elementary and secondary education are projected to be 1 percent higher in constant 2020–21 dollars (adjusted for inflation) in school year 2030–31, compared to 2018–19, the last year of actual data (Digest 2021 table 236.15).
Factors affecting the projections
The projections of current expenditures are related to projections of economic growth as measured by disposable income per capita and assistance by state governments to local governments. For more details, see appendixes A.0 and A.4.
Factors that were not considered
Many factors that may affect future school expenditures were not considered in the production of these projections. Such factors include policy initiatives as well as potential changes in the age distribution of elementary and secondary teachers as older teachers retire and are replaced by younger teachers, or as older teachers put off retirement for various reasons.
About constant dollars and current dollars
Throughout this section, projections of current expenditures are presented in constant 2020–21 dollars. The reference tables, later in this report, present these data both in constant 2020–21 dollars and in current dollars. The projections were developed in constant dollars and then placed in current dollars using projections for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (table B-5 in appendix B).
Accuracy of Projections
An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in the past 29 editions of Projections of Education Statistics that contained expenditure projections indicates that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for total current expenditures in constant dollars were 1.6 percent for 1 year out, 2.4 percent for 2 years out, 3.1 percent for 5 years out, and 6.9 percent for 10 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 1.6 percent of the actual value, on average. MAPEs for current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in constant dollars were 1.6 percent for 1 year out, 2.4 percent for 2 years out, 3.3 percent for 5 years out, and 7.0 percent for 10 years out. See appendix A for further discussion of the accuracy of recent projections of current expenditures, and see table A-2 in appendix A for the MAPEs of these projections.
Current Expenditures
Figure 13. Actual and projected current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2020–21 dollars): School years 2010–11 through 2030–31
1 Projected expenditures do not account for relief funding administered during the coronavirus pandemic, such as the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act or the American Rescue Plan (ARP).
NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Excludes prekindergarten expenditures for California in 2018–19. Numbers were placed in constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. For more detail about CPI, see table B-5 in appendix B. Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food services, and enterprise operations. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “National Public Education Financial Survey,” 2010–11 through 2018–19; Public Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Projection Model, through 2030–31. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)
Current expenditures
Current expenditures in constant 2020–21 dollars
▲ increased 10 percent from 2010–11 to 2018–19 ($628 billion vs. $693 billion); and
▲ are projected to be 1 percent higher in 2030–31 ($698 billion) compared to 2018–19
For more information: Digest 2021 table 236.15
Current Expenditures Per Pupil
Figure 14. Actual and projected current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools (in constant 2020–21 dollars): School years 2010–11 through 2030–31
1 Projected expenditures do not account for relief funding administered during the coronavirus pandemic, such as the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act or the American Rescue Plan (ARP).
NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Excludes prekindergarten expenditures and prekindergarten enrollment for California in 2018–19. Numbers were placed in constant dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. For more detail about CPI, see table B-5 in appendix B. Current expenditures include instruction, support services, food services, and enterprise operations. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 through 2018–19; “National Public Education Financial Survey,” 2010–11 through 2018–19; Public Elementary and Secondary School Current Expenditures Projection Model, through 2030–31. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)
Current expenditures per pupil
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment in constant 2020–21 dollars
▲ increased 8 percent from 2010–11 to 2018–19 ($12,700 vs. $13,700); and
▲ are projected to increase 8 percent, to $14,800, from 2018–19 to 2030–31.
For more information: Digest 2021 table 236.15
