Section Contents

1. Introduction
2. National
3. State and Regional (Public School Data)
4. Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Introduction

Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment was 56 million in fall 2019, representing a 3 percent increase since fall 2010 (Digest 2021 table 105.30). Between fall 2019, the last year of actual private school data, and fall 2030, a decrease of 8 percent is expected. This includes a 2 percent drop in total public and private enrollment from fall 2019 to the first fall of the coronavirus pandemic in fall 2020, which includes actual public school data. From fall 2020 to fall 2030, enrollments are expected to decrease another 6 percent. Both public and private school enrollments are projected to be lower in 2030 than in 2019.

Public school enrollments are projected to be higher in 2030 than in 2020 for Asian students, Hispanic students, and students of Two or more races (Digest 2021 table 203.50). Enrollment is projected to be lower for American Indians/Alaska Native, Black, Pacific Islander, and White students. Public school enrollments are projected to be lower in 2030 than in 2020 for all regions of the country (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) (Digest 2021 table 203.20).

Factors affecting the projections

The grade progression rate method was used to project school enrollments. This method assumes that future trends in factors affecting enrollments will be consistent with past patterns. It implicitly includes the net effect of factors such as dropouts, deaths, nonpromotion, transfers to and from public schools, and state-level migration. Progression rates were calculated using historical data through 2019, since pandemic-related changes in enrollments from fall 2019 to fall 2020 are not expected to persist throughout the 10-year forecast period. See appendixes A.0 and A.1 for more details.

Factors that were not considered

The projections do not assume changes in policies or attitudes that may affect enrollment levels. For example, they do not account for changing state and local policies on prekindergarten (preK) and kindergarten programs. Continued expansion of these programs could lead to higher enrollments at the elementary school level. Projections exclude the number of students who are homeschooled

National

Figure 1. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by grade level: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. PreK = prekindergarten. Enrollment numbers for prekindergarten through 12th grade and prekindergarten through 8th grade include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Public school enrollments include actual data for 2020; however, private school enrollments are projected, so total enrollments are shown as projected. Includes imputations for nonreported public prekindergarten enrollment in California and Oregon for fall 2020. Includes imputations for nonreported public enrollment for all grades in Illinois for fall 2020. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 through 2020–21; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2009–10 through 2019–20; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared May 2022.)

Figure 2. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in elementary and secondary schools, by control of school: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Projected data for public school enrollment begin in 2021, while projected data for private enrollment begin in 2020. Includes imputations for nonreported public prekindergarten enrollment in California and Oregon for fall 2020. Includes imputations for nonreported public enrollment for all grades in Illinois for fall 2020. Private school numbers include private nursery and prekindergarten enrollment in schools that offer kindergarten or higher grades. Since the biennial Private School Universe Survey (PSS) is collected in the fall of odd-numbered years, private school numbers for alternate years are estimated based on data from the PSS. Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 through 2020–21; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), selected years 2009–10 through 2019–20; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared May 2022.)

State and Regional (Public School Data)

Figure 3. Projected percentage change in enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by state: Fall 2020 to fall 2030

NOTE: Includes imputations for nonreported prekindergarten enrollment in California and Oregon for fall 2020. Includes imputations for nonreported enrollment for all grades in Illinois for fall 2020. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2020–21; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Figure 4. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by region: Fall 2010, fall 2020, and fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. See the glossary for a list of the states in each region. Includes imputations for nonreported prekindergarten enrollment in California and Oregon for fall 2020. Includes imputations for nonreported enrollment for all grades in Illinois for fall 2020. Mean absolute percentage errors of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools by state and region can be found in table A-7, appendix A. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 and 2020–21; and State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

Race/Ethnicity (Public School Data)

Figure 5. Actual and projected numbers for enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools, by race/ethnicity: Fall 2010 through fall 2030

NOTE: Data represent the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Race categories exclude persons of Hispanic ethnicity. Enrollment data for students not reported by race/ethnicity were prorated based on the known racial/ethnic composition of a state by grade to match state totals. Includes imputations for nonreported prekindergarten enrollment in California for fall 2019 and 2020 and in Oregon for fall 2020. Includes imputations for nonreported enrollment for all grades in Illinois for fall 2020. Mean absolute percentage errors of selected education statistics can be found in table A-2, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education,” 2010–11 through 2020–21; and National Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Projection Model, through 2030. (This figure was prepared March 2022.)

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