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Education Statistics Quarterly
Vol 2, Issue 4, Topic: Elementary and Secondary Education
Dropout Rates in the United States: 1999
By: Phillip Kaufman, Jim Y. Kwon, Steve Klein, and Christopher D. Chapman
 
This article was originally published as the Executive Summary of the Statistical Analysis Report of the same name. The sample survey data come primarily from the U.S. Census Bureau's October Current Population Survey (CPS), and the universe data primarily from the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD).
 

This report is the 12th in a series of National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reports on high school dropout and completion rates. It presents data on rates in 1999, the most recent year for which data are available, and includes time series data on high school dropout and completion rates for the period 1972 through 1999. In addition to extending time series data reported in earlier years, this report examines the characteristics of high school dropouts and high school completers in 1999.

Event Dropout Rates

Event dropout rates for 1999 describe the proportion of youth ages 15-24 who dropped out of grades 10-12 in the 12 months preceding October 1999. Demographic data collected in the Current Population Survey (CPS) permit event dropout rates to be calculated across various individual characteristics, including race/ethnicity, sex, region of residence, and income level.

  • Five out of every 100 young adults enrolled in high school in October 1998 left school before October 1999 without successfully completing a high school program (tables A and B). This estimate was similar to the estimates reported over the last 10 years, but lower than those reported in the early 1970s (figure A).
  • Hispanic students were more likely than white students to leave school before completing a high school program: in 1999, 7.8 percent of Hispanic students were event dropouts, compared with 4.0 percent of white students. However, the event dropout rate of white students was not significantly different from those of black students (6.5 percent) or Asian students (5.0 percent).
  • In 1999, young adults living in families with incomes in the lowest 20 percent of all family incomes were five times as likely as their peers from families in the top 20 percent of the income distribution to drop out of high school.
  • Although dropout rates were highest among students age 19 or older, about two-thirds (67.3 percent) of the current-year dropouts were ages 15 through 18; moreover, about two-fifths (43.2 percent) of the 1999 dropouts were ages 15 through 17.
Table A.-Percentage of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12 in the past year, percentage of 16-through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and percentage of 18- through 24-year-olds who completed high school, by race/ethnicity: October 1999

Table A.-Percentage of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12 in the past year, percentage of 16-through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and percentage of 18- through 24-year-olds who completed high school, by race/ethnicity: October 1999

1Due to relatively small sample sizes, American Indians/Alaska Natives are included in the total but are not shown separately.
cludes those still enrolled in high school.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey (CPS), October 1999.

Table B.-Event dropout rates and number and distribution of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12, by background characteristics: October 1999

Table B.-Event dropout rates and number and distribution of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12, by background characteristics: October 1999

1Due to relatively small sample sizes, American Indians/Alaska Natives are included in the total but are not shown separately.

2Low income is defined as the bottom 20 percent of all family incomes for 1999; middle income is between 20 and 80 percent of all family incomes; and high income is the top 20 percent of all family incomes.

3Age when a person dropped out may be 1 year younger, because the dropout event could occur at any time over a 12-month period.

NOTE: Because of rounding, detail may not add to totals.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey (CPS), October 1999. (Originally published as table 1 on p. 4 of the complete report from which this article is excerpted.)

Figure A.-Percentage of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12 in the past year, percentage of 16- through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and percentage of 18- through 24-year-olds who completed high school: October 1972 through October 1999

Figure A.-Percentage of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12 in the past year, percentage of 16- through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and percentage of 18- through 24-year-olds who completed high school: October 1972 through October 1999

Figure A.-Percentage of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12 in the past year, percentage of 16- through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and percentage of 18- through 24-year-olds who completed high school: October 1972 through October 1999

Figure A.-Percentage of 15- through 24-year-olds who dropped out of grades 10-12 in the past year, percentage of 16- through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and percentage of 18- through 24-year-olds who completed high school: October 1972 through October 1999

*Excludes those still enrolled in high school.

NOTE: Data for 1987 through 1999 reflect new editing procedures instituted by the Bureau of the Census for cases with missing data on school enrollment items. Data for 1992 through 1999 reflect new wording of the educational attainment item in the CPS beginning in 1992. Data for 1994 through 1999 reflect changes in the CPS due to newly instituted computer-assisted interviewing and the change in population controls used in the 1990 census-based estimates, with adjustment for undercounting in the 1990 census.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey (CPS), October 1972-99.

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Status Dropout Rates

Over the last decade, between 347,000 and 544,000 10th- through 12th-grade students left school each year without successfully completing a high school program. Status dropout rates represent the proportion of young adults ages 16 through 24 who are out of school and who have not earned a high school credential. Status rates are higher than event rates because they include all dropouts in this age range, regardless of when they last attended school.

  • In October 1999, some 3.8 million young adults were not enrolled in a high school program and had not completed high school. These youths accounted for 11.2 percent of the 34.2 million 16- through 24-year-olds in the United States in 1999 (tables A and C). As noted with event rates, this estimate is consistent with the estimates reported over the last 10 years, but lower than those reported in the early 1970s (figure A).
  • The status dropout rate of whites remains lower than that of blacks, but over the past quarter of a century, the difference between the rates of whites and blacks has narrowed. In addition, Hispanic young adults in the United States continue to have a higher status dropout rate than whites or blacks.
  • In 1999, the status dropout rate for Asian/Pacific Islander young adults was 4.3 percent compared with 28.6 percent for Hispanics, 12.6 percent for blacks, and 7.3 percent for whites.
  • In 1999, about 44.2 percent of Hispanic young adults born outside of the United States were high school dropouts. Hispanic young adults born inside the United States were much less likely to be dropouts. However, when looking at just those young adults born in the United States, Hispanic youths were still more likely to be dropouts than other young adults.
Table C.-Status dropout rates and number and distribution of 16- through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, by background characteristics: October 1999

Table C.-Status dropout rates and number and distribution of 16- through 24-year-olds who were dropouts, by background characteristics: October 1999

1Due to relatively small sample sizes, American Indians/Alaska Natives are included in the total but are not shown separately.

2Individuals defined as "first generation" were born in the 50 states or the District of Columbia, and one or both of their parents were born outside the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

3Individuals defined as "second generation or more" were born in the 50 states or the District of Columbia, as were both of their parents.

NOTE: Because of rounding, detail may not add to totals.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey (CPS), October 1999. (Originally published as table 3 on p. 12 of the complete report from which this article is excerpted.)

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High School Completion Rates

The high school completion rate represents the proportion of 18- through 24-year-olds who have completed a high school diploma or an equivalent credential, including a General Educational Development (GED) credential.

  • In 1999, about 85.9 percent of all 18- through 24-year-olds not enrolled in high school had completed high school (tables A and D), a slight increase since the early 1970s (figure A).
  • High school completion rates have increased for white and black young adults since the early 1970s, with rates of 91.2 percent for whites and 83.5 percent for blacks in 1999. Analysis revealed no consistent upward trend during this period with rates variably increasing or decreasing depending on the time period under study. In addition, white and Asian/Pacific Islander young adults in 1999 were more likely than their black and Hispanic peers to have completed high school.
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Method of High School Completion

Most young adults earn a regular diploma and graduate from high school; others complete high school by an alternative route, such as passing the GED test.

  • In 1999, about 76.8 percent of the 18- through 24-year-olds who were not still enrolled in high school held regular diplomas, which represented the high school graduation rate (as opposed to the high school completion rate) (table D). An additional 9.2 percent had completed high school by taking a high school equivalency test such as the GED. This represents about 1.9 million young adults.
Table D.-High school completion rates and number and distribution of 18- through 24-year-old completers not currently enrolled in high school or below, by background characteristics: October 1999

Table D.-High school completion rates and number and distribution of 18- through 24-year-old completers not currently enrolled in high school or below, by background characteristics: October 1999

1Completed high school by means of an equivalency test, such as a GED exam.

2Due to relatively small sample sizes, American Indians/Alaska Natives are included in the total but are not shown separately.

NOTE: Because of rounding, detail may not add to totals.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey (CPS), October 1999. (Originally published as table 4 on p. 19 of the complete report from which this article is excerpted.)

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Data sources:

NCES: The Common Core of Data (CCD), "Local Education Agency Universe Survey," 1992-93 through 1998-99; the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 Eighth-Graders (NELS:1988/1994); and the High School and Beyond Longitudinal Study of 1980 Sophomores (HS&B-So:1980/1982).

Other: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey (CPS), October 1972-99; and American Council on Education, GED Testing Service, GED Statistical Report (1990-99).

For technical information, see the complete report:

Kaufman, P., Kwon, J.Y., Klein, S., and Chapman, C.D. (2000). Dropout Rates in the United States: 1999 (NCES 2001-022).

Author affiliations: P. Kaufman, J.Y. Kwon, S. Klein, MPR Associates; C.D. Chapman, NCES.

For questions about content, contact Christopher D. Chapman (chris.chapman@ed.gov).

To obtain the complete report (NCES 2001-022), call the toll-free ED Pubs number (877-433-7827), visit the NCES Web Site (http://nces.ed.gov), or contact GPO (202-512-1800).

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