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Education Statistics Quarterly
Vol 1, Issue 3, Topic: Featured Topic: Life After College
Invited Commentary: Baccalaureate and Beyond: Tracking Long-Term Outcomes for Bachelor's Degree Recipients
By: Dawn Geronimo Terkla, Executive Director, Institutional Research, Tufts University
 
This commentary represents the opinions of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of the National Center for Education Statistics.
 

For several decades, the question of the value of a postsecondary education has been debated. Numerous studies have been conducted to establish measures that reflect the worth of a college degree. The featured report, Life After College: A Descriptive Summary of 1992-93 Bachelor's Degree Recipients in 1997, does not attempt to estimate the value of a bachelor's degree but rather provides another chapter in describing the story of individuals who achieve at least a bachelor's degree. The report includes extensive data on these individuals' enrollment and employment experiences. Four years after completing their baccalaureate degrees, for example, 30 percent of the 1992-93 bachelor's degree recipients had enrolled in graduate or professional school, 21 percent had either attained a degree or were currently enrolled, and 89 percent were employed. Only a very small percentage of individuals were neither employed nor enrolled in graduate or professional school. In fact, the unemployment rate for these bachelor's degree recipients was 2.9 percent, somewhat below that of the overall U.S. unemployment rate for adults ages 25 and older.

The value of the 1993 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study, Second Follow-up (B&B:93/97), is that it provides another milepost in our examination and understanding of life after college. Initial mileposts were provided with B&B's predecessors, the National Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972 (NLS:72/86) and High School and Beyond (HS&B:80/92). It will prove to be a valuable exercise to examine whether and how the experiences of bachelor's degree recipients have changed or remained similar over the past 2 decades. In addition, B&B is the first longitudinal study specifically intended to track bachelor's degree recipients. B&B includes a larger number of bachelor's degree recipients than its predecessors and will follow them for a greater number of years after college graduation.

One of the major advantages of a national longitudinal study of this type is that it provides an accurate description that is based on a nationally representative sample rather than on anecdotal information. Furthermore, the value of a baccalaureate degree transcends time: not all individuals march to the same drummer and pursue advanced training or careers in a lock-step pattern. Because individuals' paths vary substantially, it is extremely useful to examine behaviors (both career histories and postbaccalaureate pursuits) at various points after initial receipt of the baccalaureate degree.

If the choice is made not to view outcomes at various points in time, the conclusions one draws may in fact be quite flawed. When 1992-93 bachelor's degree recipients were interviewed in 1993, for example, a higher percentage of women than of men intended to pursue advanced degrees; 4 years later, however, the percentage of men and women who had actually enrolled was comparable. Will this situation remain constant, or will the proportions change again? Among those who had actually enrolled in advanced degree programs by 1997, men were more likely than women to be pursuing an MBA, doctoral, or first-professional degree. It is interesting to contemplate whether the next 10 years will find a larger share of enrolled women pursuing MBA, doctoral, and first-professional degrees. Will there eventually be a homeostasis, with equal proportions of men and women obtaining comparable advanced degrees in similar programs? The B&B study has the potential to address such unanswered questions.

B&B:93/97 data lend themselves to a description of student degree aspirations at the time of graduation, changes in these aspirations after 4 years, and steps taken to prepare for advanced training. However, it is unfortunate that the data do not lend themselves to answering the question of why individuals decided to pursue graduate and first-professional degrees. While there appears to be a relationship between type of institution attended, undergraduate academic performance, the pursuit of training beyond the baccalaureate level, and retention within the graduate program, one wonders if there are also relationships between initial motivations for pursuing an advanced degree, actual pursuit of that degree, and ultimate attainment of the degree.

What is somewhat perplexing is that 85 percent of 1992-93 bachelor's degree recipients indicated at the time of graduation that they intended to complete a graduate or professional degree, but 4 years later only 21 percent had either attained an advanced degree or were currently enrolled in a program. In all likelihood, additional 1992-93 bachelor's degree recipients will reenter higher education. Thus, it seems critical, if not imperative, that the longitudinal aspect of this study be continued in order to determine the proportion of bachelor's degree recipients who ultimately achieve their educational aspirations. It would be most worthwhile to carry through with plans to survey these individuals again in 2002 and perhaps also in 2005.

While the data are somewhat deficient in providing critical information regarding individuals' reasons for pursuing graduate training, B&B:93/97 does provide valuable information from which one is able to gain insights about why individuals selected their current jobs and how they obtained these jobs, as well as how satisfied they are with their current employment situations. In addition, this second follow-up of B&B provides a wealth of information for researchers who are interested in examining the relationships between undergraduate major and employability, field of employment, and average earnings. While some work has been done, using data from the first B&B follow-up (B&B:93/94), to examine the relationships among undergraduate majors, career choices, and average salaries, it will be interesting to determine whether similar relationships continue to exist over time. The B&B:93/97 data seem to support the notion that one's undergraduate major does have an impact on average salary 4 years after graduation and that arts and science majors earn less than those with degrees in professional fields. However, it will be important to determine whether the long-term earning potential of individuals will vary according to their choice of undergraduate major or whether other intervening variables will have a stronger long-term impact on earnings.

Given that this cohort was part of the 1993 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:93), the level of detail regarding the financing of these individuals' undergraduate education is extensive. B&B:93/97 provides an opportunity to examine the impact of loans on both postbaccalaureate and career choices. While it appears that the amount of money borrowed to finance undergraduate education is not related to employment choices, it will be very interesting to explore whether any relationships exist between borrowing, amount of borrowing, career choices, and satisfaction with one's career. We may also learn that over time loan indebtedness will have less of an impact on further educational pursuits, putting to rest the conventional wisdom that loans have a major impact on the pursuit of advanced training. Although borrowers were slightly less likely than nonborrowers to have applied to graduate and professional schools as of 1997, perhaps more borrowers will apply after they have been repaying their loans for several years and have reduced their undergraduate debt. As of 1997, borrowing did not seem to be related to enrollment rates among those individuals who had applied. Analyzing relationships among these and other variables will provide a greater understanding of the impact of undergraduate borrowing on major life choices.

The higher education community is indeed fortunate to have a data set that will afford innumerable opportunities to examine a host of questions regarding the outcomes of bachelor's degree recipients over an extended period of time. This rich source of information not only provides data that are useful to inform public policy decisions, but also provides comparative data for individual institutions. There is no doubt that B&B:93/97 will be mined extensively and will yield volumes describing life after the baccalaureate.

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