Denver Public Schools (DPS) is committed to improving all students’ success in the transition from middle school to high school, in part by increasing the number of students who receive a passing grade in their grade 9 math course. Success in grade 9 math predicts high school achievement and graduation across the nation. In 2023 nearly one in five DPS students did not pass their grade 9 math course.
To inform efforts to support successful high school transitions, this study used administrative data from DPS to identify student characteristics and experiences (referred to as factors) strongly associated with grade 9 math success for all DPS students and whether these associations differed for student groups of interest (those who may be at higher risk for unsuccessful transitions): Black students, Hispanic students, students with an Individualized Education Program, and multilingual learner students. The study team considered an association to be strong if it was both statistically significant (unlikely to happen by chance) and if a change in the factor was associated with at least a 5 percentage point difference in the likelihood of math success.
Key findings from the study include:
- Receiving any suspension in middle school was strongly associated with being unsuccessful in grade 9 math. The strong negative association between being suspended in middle school and grade 9 math success was larger than the association for any other single factor, including prior achievement.
- Students who met or exceeded the proficiency benchmark on the CMAS ELA exam in middle school were more likely to succeed in grade 9 math than students who did not, whereas students who received any failing grade in a middle school math course were less likely to succeed than students who did not.
- Higher attendance in middle school was strongly associated with grade 9 math success.
- Attending a high school with above-average Hispanic student enrollment was strongly associated with grade 9 math success for grade 9 students overall. This association was also strong for Hispanic students, who composed more than half of the students in DPS, but not for other student groups that might be at risk of unsuccessful transitions.
To build on these findings, DPS might choose to learn more about the mechanisms behind these associations. DPS and other districts focused on successful high school transitions might consider implementing and evaluating an early warning system that identifies students for extra support using factors associated with grade 9 math success.
