Identifying North Carolina Students at Risk of Scoring below Proficient in Reading at the End of Grade 3

Title:	Identifying North Carolina Students at Risk of Scoring below Proficient in Reading at the End of Grade 3
Description:	This study examines how students’ performance on North Carolina’s assessments taken from kindergarten to the beginning of grade 3 predicts reading proficiency at the end of grade 3. The study used longitudinal student-level achievement data for 2014/15–2017/18. The sample consisted of students in grade 3 who took the 2017/18 grade 3 end-of grade assessment in reading for the first time and had reading assessment data when they were in kindergarten in 2014/15. The analyses modeled associations between student performance on grade-level interim assessment measures and proficiency on the grade 3 end-of-grade assessment in reading using classification and regression tree analyses. The results indicated that less than 80 percent of students who failed the grade 3 state assessment were correctly identified as being at risk. The only exception to this finding was when a test better aligned to the end-of-grade state assessment was used as a predictor. These results suggest that more information is needed to use test score data from grades K–2 to reliably identify who is at risk of not being proficient on the grade 3 end-of-grade assessment. Educators may want to consider supplementing screening and progress monitoring assessments with informal, curriculum-based assessments that measure student vocabulary, syntax, and listening comprehension skills because research has identified these skills as important predictors of reading comprehension.
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Cover Date:	August 2020
Web Release:	August 24, 2020
Print Release:	August 24, 2020
Publication #:	REL 2020030 General Ordering Information
Center/Program:	REL
Associated Centers:	NCEE
Authors:	Sharon Koon, Barbara Foorman, and Tara Galloway
Type of Product:	Descriptive Study
Keywords:	Assessment Elementary Education Reading Students • reading and writing • student evaluation
Questions:	For questions about the content of this Descriptive Study, please contact: Amy Johnson.