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Issue Brief:

The Impact of the Baby Boom Echo on U.S. Public School Enrollments

October 1997

(NCES 98-039) Ordering information

 

The children of the Baby Boom generation have set off a population explosion in the nation's public schools. This dramatic enrollment growth, known as the Baby Boom echo, began in the nation's elementary schools in 1984, and elementary enrollment has increased annually since then. At the secondary level, annual enrollment increases began in 1991 and are expected to continue through the year 2007. Combined public and private high school enrollment is expected to reach 16.4 million by the year 2007, a 13 percent increase from 1997.

National Enrollment Trends

After reaching a peak of 51.3 million students in the fall of 1971, total enrollment in elementary and secondary public and private schools in the United States declined annually through the 1984-85 school year. The current enrollment upturn began in fall 1985 and is expected to continue through the year 2006. Total enrollment in elementary and secondary public and private schools is projected to reach 52.2 million in the 1997 school year, the highest in U.S. history.

By the year 2006, total enrollment is expected to swell to 54.4 million (enrollment in the year 2007 is projected to decline slightly, to 54.3 million). However, enrollment growth in the next 10 years is not projected to be as fast as the 1987-97 rate. Whereas high school enrollment is expected to increase steadily from fall 1997 to fall 2007, elementary enrollment over that time period is expected to rise slightly and then return to 1997 levels.

The primary reason for the timing and rate of the enrollment increase is the rising number of annual births since 1977, which is referred to as the Baby Boom echo. Other key reasons include: a higher birth rate among Hispanics and other minorities; increases in immigration, particularly in point-of-entry cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Miami; a greater number of children enrolled in pre-K and kindergarten; and a larger share of young people remaining in high school to receive their diplomas. Since 1984, these factors have combined to produce large enrollment increases in some of the fastest-growing areas of the country. For example, table 1 shows individual school districts that experienced the greatest increases in enrollment from 1984 to 1994.

Table 1. Ten public districts with the largest enrollment increases: Fall 1984 to fall 1994

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                                                                              Enrollment       Percent
                                                         Enrollment           increase          change
                                                     -------------------      ----------      ---------
District                              State            1984       1994         1984–94         1984–94
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New York City                           NY            923,100  1,022,534        99,434            10.8
Dade County School District             FL            231,277    321,615        90,338            39.1
Los Angeles Unified                     CA            546,990    632,973        85,983            15.7
Broward County School District          FL            127,474    199,255        71,781            56.3
Clark County School District            NV             89,627    156,348        66,721            74.4
Palm Beach County School District       FL             78,374    127,519        49,145            62.7
Orange County School District           FL             78,624    118,666        40,042            50.9
Gwinnett County School District         GA             41,096     80,220        39,124            95.2
Montgomery County Public Schools        MD             88,811    117,082        28,271            31.8
Mesa Unified School District            AZ             41,746     69,160        27,414            65.7
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NOTE: Some changes may be affected by school district boundary changes.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data surveys; and Projections of Education Statistics to 2006.

Impact on Regions, States, and Districts

The increases in U.S. enrollment are not spread equally across all areas of the country, and there is a distinct regional pattern to the effects of the Baby Boom echo. From 1997 to 2007, enrollments are expected to increase in all but one Western state and in most states in the South, but enrollments are expected to decrease in five of nine Northeastern states and in 10 of 12 Midwest states (table 2). In all, enrollments are expected to hold steady or increase in 30 states and decline in 20 states and the District of Columbia.

Table 2. Enrollment in grades K-12 in public and private elementary and secondary schools, by region and state: Fall 1987, 1997, 2002, and 2007

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                                                Projected                 Percent change
                                       -----------------------   ---------------------------------------
Region and state              1987      1997    2002      2007   1987 to 1997 1997 to 2000 1987 to 2007
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

       Total enrollment      45,488     52,2   53,962   54,324       14.8        4.0           19.4

Private                       5,479     5,86    6,051    6,061        7.0        3.4           10.6

Public                       40,008     46,3   47,911   48,262       15.9        4.1           20.6

  Northeast                   7,252     8,15    8,283    8,143       12.4       -0.1           12.3
    Connecticut                 465      537      531      511       15.5       -4.8            9.9
    Maine                       212      214      203      197        0.9       -7.9           -7.1
    Massachusetts               825      947      987      974       14.8        2.9           18.1
    New Hampshire               166      201      203      199       21.1       -1.0           19.9
    New Jersey                1,093     1,24    1,290    1,280       14.2        2.6           17.1
    New York                  2,594     2,90    2,985    2,965       11.9        2.2           14.3
    Pennsylvania              1,669     1,83    1,817    1,754       10.1       -4.6            5.1
    Rhode Island                135      156      159      158       15.6        1.3           17.0
    Vermont                      93      108      108      106       16.1       -1.9           14.0

  Midwest                     9,870     10,6   10,588   10,397        7.8       -2.3            5.3
    Illinois                  1,811     1,98    2,022    2,010        9.8        1.1           11.0
    Indiana                     964      989    1,020    1,023        2.6        3.4            6.1
    Iowa                        481      501      480      467        4.2       -6.8           -2.9
    Kansas                      421      476      473      470       13.1       -1.3           11.6
    Michigan                  1,589     1,65    1,637    1,596        4.2       -3.6            0.4
    Minnesota                   721      847      827      798       17.5       -5.8           10.7
    Missouri                    802      902      905      893       12.5       -1.0           11.3
    Nebraska                    268      290      288      286        8.2       -1.4            6.7
    North Dakota                119      117      113      111       -1.7       -5.1           -6.7
    Ohio                      1,793     1,84    1,817    1,772        2.6       -3.7           -1.2
    South Dakota                127      147      143      140       15.7       -4.8           10.2
    Wisconsin                   772      890      864      831       15.3       -6.6            7.6

  South                      14,419     16,6   17,393   17,543       15.5        5.4           21.7
    Alabama                     729      748      779      789        2.6        5.5            8.2
    Arkansas                    437      458      464      458        4.8        0.0            4.8
    Delaware                     96      114      121      120       18.8        5.3           25.0
    District of Columbia         86       82       78       76       -4.7       -7.3          -11.6
    Florida                   1,665     2,30    2,396    2,372       38.1        3.1           42.5
    Georgia                   1,111     1,35    1,471    1,502       22.2       10.6           35.2
    Kentucky                    643      661      660      648        2.8       -2.0            0.8
    Louisiana                   793      810      791      783        2.1       -3.3           -1.3
    Maryland                    684      840      868      867       22.8        3.2           26.8
    Mississippi                 506      512      525      527        1.2        2.9            4.2
    North Carolina            1,086     1,24    1,341    1,332       14.2        7.4           22.7
    Oklahoma                    584      621      603      593        6.3       -4.5            1.5
    South Carolina              615      665      688      694        8.1        4.4           12.8
    Tennessee                   824      923      978      984       12.0        6.6           19.4
    Texas                     3,237     3,90    4,156    4,314       20.5       10.6           33.3
    Virginia                    979     1,11    1,182    1,198       13.9        7.4           22.4
    West Virginia               344      302      291      285      -12.2       -5.6          -17.2

  West                        8,468     10,9   11,646   12,179       28.8       11.6           43.8
    Alaska                      106      133      138      145       25.5        9.0           36.8
    Arizona                     572      832      914      922       45.5       10.8           61.2
    California                4,489     5,86    6,337    6,780       30.5       15.7           51.0
    Colorado                    560      684      722      727       22.1        6.3           29.8
    Hawaii                      166      204      214      228       22.9       11.8           37.3
    Idaho                       212      255      275      283       20.3       11.0           33.5
    Montana                     152      169      167      165       11.2       -2.4            8.6
    Nevada                      168      295      330      321       75.6        8.8           91.1
    New Mexico                  287      352      372      393       22.6       11.6           36.9
    Oregon                      456      544      550      549       19.3        0.9           20.4
    Utah                        423      488      519      543       15.4       11.3           28.4
    Washington                  776      993    1,009    1,019       28.0        2.6           31.3
    Wyoming                      98      100      100      105        2.0        5.0            7.1
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SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data surveys; and Projections of Education Statistics to 2007.

Over the next decade, student enrollment is expected to increase by 16 percent in California, making it the fastest-growing state. States that will experience a decline in overall student population include the District of Columbia (by 7 percent), Wisconsin (by 7 percent), Iowa (by 7 percent) and Maine (by 8 percent).

Within states, the rate and timing of the enrollment changes also differ across school districts. In Nevada, overall enrollment is expected to grow by about 15 percent from 1996 to 2001. However, the number of students in Nevada's Clark County School District is projected to increase by about 28 percent from 1996-97 to 2000-01 (179,000 students to 223,000 students). This kind of rapid and uneven growth places additional burdens on state and local education agencies.

How Will the Schools Keep Up?

The number of classroom teachers is expected to increase from 3.1 million in fall 1997 to 3.3 million by the fall of 2007. Overall, total yearly current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools are projected to increase 22 percent from 1996-97 to 2006-07, from $257 billion to $314 billion (1994-95 dollars).

 

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For more information about the content of this report, contact Tom Snyder at Tom.Snyder@ed.gov.