5. COMPARISONS OF EACH NAEP STATE AND JURISDICTION WITH THE TIMSS NATIONS FOR GRADE 8 SCIENCE

This chapter presents one-page profiles for each state and jurisdiction participating in grade 8 science in alphabetical order. Each profile contains two tables.

• The first table displays how the state or jurisdiction would perform in comparison to the 41 nations that took TIMSS science at grade 8. Each table indicates whether the actual scores of the participating TIMSS nations are significantly higher than, not significantly different from, or significantly lower than the estimated average performance of the public school students in the state or jurisdiction.

• The second table displays the range of possible values for the estimated percentage of public school students in the state or jurisdiction that would perform above the TIMSS Top Ten Percent marker level and the TIMSS Top Ten Half marker level for science at grade 8. The TIMSS Top Ten Percent marker level represents the score achieved by the top ten percent of all eighth grade students in the 41 TIMSS countries combined. The TIMSS Top Half marker level represents the score achieved by the top fifty percent of all eighth grade students in the 41 TIMSS countries combined. Each table presents the estimated percentage of public school students in the state that are expected to perform above the two TIMSS marker levels. The lower and upper bounds represent the range of possible values around the estimated percentages (95% confidence intervals).

A second profile is presented for the state of Minnesota. Similar tables to those described above are included. However, in this profile, the actual TIMSS results for Minnesota's public school students are compared with the results of the 41 nations who participated in TIMSS for grade 8 science.

Readers of these profiles are reminded that the state's or jurisdiction's TIMSS performance in grade 8 science is estimated from its NAEP score, using the linking function, and must therefore be interpreted with caution. Furthermore, the calculations for the 1996 NAEP scores and 1995 TIMSS scores for the participating states, jurisdictions and nations are based on samples of the student populations, not entire student populations. Hence, estimates are imprecise.

The SOLE purpose of these profiles is to allow the comparison of predicted TIMSS performances for individual states with the actual TIMSS performances of individual countries. It is NOT appropriate to use these profiles to compare performances between states or between countries. Accordingly, the profiles for the states and jurisdictions participating in NAEP grade 8 science are arranged in alphabetical order. The proper between state comparisons are provided in the NAEP reports (O'Sullivan, Reese and Mazzeo 1997; Reese et al. 1997), while the proper between country comparisons are provided in the TIMSS reports (Beaton, Mullis, et al. 1997; Beaton, Martin, et al. 1997).

Comparisons of Estimated TIMSS Scores from Public School NAEP Data for States and Jurisdictions with Actual TIMSS Scores for Nations: Grade 8 Science States (1996), Nations (1995)

State/Jurisdiction: Alabama

If the public school students in Alabama participated in TIMSS, how would their average performance in science compare to that of students in the 41 nations that took TIMSS at grade 8?

(Jurisdiction) indicates that the nation, state, or jurisdiction did not satisfy one or more of the sample participation guidelines. Latvia-LSS: Latvian-speaking schools only

Comparisons of averages tell how typical students perform, but they do not describe how well the best students perform. What is the estimated percentage of students in Alabama that would perform above the TIMSS Top Ten Percent marker level? What is the estimated percentage that would perform above the Top Half marker level? (Below are estimates of the percentage of students expected to perform above the Top Ten Percent and Top Fifty Percent international marker levels. Each estimate is accompanied by a "Lower bound" and an "Upper bound" that reflect the range of possible values around the estimated percentage.)

SOURCE: Johnson, E.G. (1998) Linking the National Assessment of Educational Progress with the Third International Mathematics and Science Study for Eighth Grade: A Research Report. (Publication No. NCES 98-499). Washington, DC: GPO.

Comparisons of Estimated TIMSS Scores from Public School NAEP Data for States and Jurisdictions with Actual TIMSS Scores for Nations: Grade 8 Science States (1996), Nations (1995)

State/Jurisdiction: (Alaska)

If the public school students in Alaska participated in TIMSS, how would their average performance in science compare to that of students in the 41 nations that took TIMSS at grade 8?

(Jurisdiction) indicates that the nation, state, or jurisdiction did not satisfy one or more of the sample participation guidelines. Latvia-LSS: Latvian-speaking schools only

Comparisons of averages tell how typical students perform, but they do not describe how well the best students perform. What is the estimated percentage of students in Alaska that would perform above the TIMSS Top Ten Percent marker level? What is the estimated percentage that would perform above the Top Half marker level? (Below are estimates of the percentage of students expected to perform above the Top Ten Percent and Top Fifty Percent international marker levels. Each estimate is accompanied by a "Lower bound" and an "Upper bound" that reflect the range of possible values around the estimated percentage.)

SOURCE: Johnson, E.G. (1998) Linking the National Assessment of Educational Progress with the Third International Mathematics and Science Study for Eighth Grade: A Research Report. (Publication No. NCES 98-499). Washington, DC: GPO.

Comparisons of Estimated TIMSS Scores from Public School NAEP Data for States and Jurisdictions with Actual TIMSS Scores for Nations: Grade 8 Science States (1996), Nations (1995)

State/Jurisdiction: Arizona

If the public school students in Arizona participated in TIMSS, how would their average performance in science compare to that of students in the 41 nations that took TIMSS at grade 8?

(Jurisdiction) indicates that the nation, state, or jurisdiction did not satisfy one or more of the sample participation guidelines. Latvia-LSS: Latvian-speaking schools only

Comparisons of averages tell how typical students perform, but they do not describe how well the best students perform. What is the estimated percentage of students in Arizona that would perform above the TIMSS Top Ten Percent marker level? What is the estimated percentage that would perform above the Top Half marker level? (Below are estimates of the percentage of students expected to perform above the Top Ten Percent and Top Fifty Percent international marker levels. Each estimate is accompanied by a "Lower bound" and an "Upper bound" that reflect the range of possible values around the estimated percentage.)

SOURCE: Johnson, E.G. (1998) Linking the National Assessment of Educational Progress with the Third International Mathematics and Science Study for Eighth Grade: A Research Report. (Publication No. NCES 98-499). Washington, DC: GPO.