JUNE 1993
Projections are used by policy analysts and researchers in
business, industry, government, the media, and education whose work
requires a knowledge of projected developments and trends affecting
American education. In particular, future trends in enrollment
projections are useful to school planners who are involved in
making decisions about long-term requirements for school facilities
and teachers.
WHAT WILL BE THE FUTURE TREND IN ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT?
Influenced primarily by the rising number of annual births since
1977 (sometimes referred to as the baby-boom echo), the 5- to
17-year-old population is projected to increase by 13 percent over
the projection period (Footnote 1)(table 1). As a result, there
will also be a period of rising enrollment in public and private
elementary and secondary schools. Total elementary and secondary
enrollment is projected to increase by 13 percent from 1992 to 2003
(table 2).
TABLE 1.--PERCENT CHANGES FROM 1978 TO 1992 AND 1992 TO 2003
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VARIABLE 1978 to 1992 to
1992 2003
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5- to 17-year-old population -4.8 12.6
Enrollment in grades K-12 0.5 13.3
Enrollment in grades K-8 8.8 9.9
Enrollment in grades 9-12 -16.9 22.4
TABLE 2.--ENROLLMENT IN ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS,
BY GRADE LEVEL: 1978, 1992, and 2003
(IN MILLIONS)
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GRADE LEVEL 1978 1992 2003
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Grades K-12 47.6 47.9 54.2
Grades K-8 32.2 35.0 38.5
Grades 9-12 15.4 12.8 15.7
During the projection period, total enrollment will surpass the
level in 1971, when enrollment peaked at 51.3 million. In
PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS TO 2003, this is projected to
occur in 1996, when enrollment will be 51.6 million. This is 2
years earlier than the timing of this event reported in the 1991
edition of PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS TO 2002, when it was
projected to be in 1998.
HOW WILL ENROLLMENT DIFFER BY GRADE LEVEL?
Recently, trends in enrollments in grades K-8 and grades 9-12 have
differed greatly. Enrollment in grades K-8 reached a low in 1984
and increased steadily to the present. On the other hand,
enrollment in grades 9-12 did not reach a low until 1990. The
future trends will be alike with enrollments in grades K-8 and
grades 9-12 rising significantly. Enrollment in grades 9-12 is
projected to rise by 22 percent, while enrollment in grades K-8
is expected to increase by 10 percent (table 1).
WILL ENROLLMENT TRENDS DIFFER BY REGION AND STATE?
Most likely, enrollment trends will differ by region and state.
The Census projections used to produce the enrollment projections
presented in this report are national projections. Population
projections at the state level will be developed by the Census
Bureau in the near future, and enrollment projections by state, to
be prepared by NCES, will follow thereafter. State and local
government planners may wish to consult the forthcoming STATE
PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS, as well as their state
forecasters.
HOW DIFFERENT ARE THESE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FROM PAST ENROLLMENT
PROJECTIONS?
The 1992 edition of PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS TO 2003 is
the first report to present enrollment projections based on the
1990 census. When these enrollment projections are compared to
previous enrollment projections published in the 1990 edition of
PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS TO 2001: AN UPDATE and the
1991 edition of PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS TO 2002,
differences emerge. Enrollment projections shown in the 1990 and
1991 editions were based on two alternative sets of population
projections derived from the 1980 census.
Changes in assumptions for the future fertility rate (i.e. births
per woman) and net immigration account for the differences among
the three sets of enrollment projections. The alternative
assumptions for the fertility rate and net immigration can be found
in table 3.
TABLE 3.--COMPARISON OF SELECTED ASSUMPTIONS FROM THREE EDITIONS OF
PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS AND K-12 ENROLLMENT IN THE
YEAR 2001
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1992 1991 1990
edition edition edition
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Ultimate complete
cohort fertility
rate per woman
by the year 2050 2.1 2.2 1.8
Net migration
per year 880,000 800,000 500,000
K-12 enrollment
in 2001 (millions) 53.8 52.6 49.8
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SOURCE: Bureau of the Census and National Center for Education
Statistics.
The enrollment projections presented in the 1992 edition are higher
than those in earlier editions. (See table 3 for a comparison of
the enrollment projections for 2001.) For the year 2001, the 1992
edition enrollment projection is 8.1 percent larger than the
projection in the 1990 edition and 2.1 percent larger than the
projection in the 1991 edition.
(Footnote 1) The population projections used to develop the
enrollment projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle
series, which assumes an ultimate complete cohort fertility rate of
2.1 births per woman by the year 2050, a net immigration of 880,000
per year, and a further reduction of the mortality rate. The
enrollment projections were determined using a technique called the
grade retention rate method. A greater explanation of the data and
the projection techniques used to produce these projections can be
found in the publication PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATION STATISTICS TO
2003.
FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEE THE FOLLOWING REPORTS:
U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education
Statistics. PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATIONS STATISTICS TO 2003 (NCES
92-218), by D.E. Gerald and W.J. Hussar, Washington D.C.: 1992.
U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education
Statistics. POCKET PROJECTIONS: 1980-81 TO 2002-2003 (NCES
93-194), by W.J. Hussar, Washington D.C.: 1993.
SOURCE: All data in this ISSUE BRIEF are from PROJECTIONS OF
EDUCATIONS STATISTICS TO 2003. National Center for Education
Statistics, NCES 92-218.
ISSUE BRIEFS present information on education topics of current
interest. For methodological details on the assumptions and
methods used to produce the projections presented in this ISSUE
BRIEF, see PROJECTIONS OF EDUCATIONS STATISTICS TO 2003.
This ISSUE BRIEF was prepared by Debra E. Gerald and William J.
Hussar. For further information on education projections, contact William J. Hussar.