Chapter 8: Multivariate Analyses of Immediate Postsecondary Enrollment and Degree Attainment

Immediate Postsecondary Enrollment

Tables ELS-1a and ELS-1b compare the distributions of on-time10 high school graduates in 2004 who did and did not immediately enroll in postsecondary education after high school. Immediate enrollees had higher levels of socioeconomic status compared with students with no immediate postsecondary enrollment (0.20 standard deviations above the mean vs. 0.27 standard deviations below the mean), a higher mean 9th-grade grade point average (GPA) (3.02 vs. 2.38), and a higher mean 10th-grade mathematics achievement test score (53.7 vs. 46.5). In addition, higher percentages of immediate enrollees (than those who did not immediately enroll) were from two-parent/guardian households (80 percent vs. 72 percent), participated in sports (61 percent vs. 44 percent), participated in two or more extracurricular activities (31 percent vs. 16 percent), and often discussed coursework with their parents (35 percent vs. 22 percent). Lower percentages of immediate enrollees (than those who did not immediately enroll) were ever retained in 10th grade or earlier (19 percent vs. 36 percent), were absent from school seven or more times in the first semester (11 percent vs. 19 percent), had cut or skipped classes seven or more times (3 percent vs. 7 percent), were employed and working more than 30 hours a week (6 percent vs. 9 percent), or had at least one close friend who dropped out of school (14 percent vs. 29 percent).

Associations between student characteristics and immediate postsecondary enrollment were examined for 2004 on-time high school graduates overall, as well as separately for males and females; separately for Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics (table ELS-2); and separately for males and females within each of these racial/ethnic groups (table ELS-3). Multivariate analyses were not conducted for Asians, Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders, or American Indians/Alaska Natives due to small sample sizes. Also, for the Black male and female and Hispanic male and female subgroup models, some of the results that appear to be substantive in magnitude are not statistically significant due to small subgroup sample sizes.

Results from the first logistic model indicate that the odds of a male immediately enrolling in postsecondary education were 35 percent lower than the odds for a female, after accounting for all other student and family characteristics that were included as independent variables in the model (table ELS-2). In terms of race/ethnicity, the odds of an Asian student immediately enrolling in postsecondary education after high school were 2.57 times the odds for a White student. While the unadjusted bivariate results indicate that lower percentages of Black than White high school graduates immediately enrolled in postsecondary education, the logistic regression models indicate that Black students had 50 percent higher odds than White students of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education, after accounting for other student, family, and school factors. On-time high school graduates more likely to immediately enroll in a postsecondary institution also included those with higher socioeconomic status, higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement, and a higher 9th-grade GPA. Additional results from the first logistic model are as follows:

  • Had been retained : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for students who had been held back in 10th grade or earlier were 30 percent lower than the odds for those who had never been retained
  • High school sports : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for students who participated in high school sports were 57 percent higher than the odds for those who did not participate in sports.
  • High school extracurricular activities : Students who participated in one extracurricular activity had 20 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who participated in no activities. Students who participated in two or more activities had 43 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment than those who participated in no activities.
  • High school absenteeism : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for students who missed 7 or more days of school in the first semester or term of the school year were 29 percent lower than the odds for those who missed 0 to 2 days.
  • Cut or skipped class : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for students who skipped class at least once in the first semester or term of the school year were 18 percent lower than the odds for those who had never skipped class.
  • Parental engagement : Students who often discussed school courses with their parents had 44 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who never had these discussions with their parents.
  • High school student employment: The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for students who worked more than 20 hours per week were 29 percent lower than the odds for those who were not employed.
  • Close friends who dropped out: The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for students who had one or more friends who dropped out of school were 19 percent lower than the odds for those who had no close friends who dropped out.

Males and Females: Examining these variables separately for males and females (controlling for race/ ethnicity), the following factors were related to a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment for each sex: higher socioeconomic status, higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement, and higher 9th-grade GPA (table ELS-2). Other findings include the following:

  • High school sports : Males who participated in high school sports had 58 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who did not participate in sports. Females who participated in high school sports had 56 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who did not participate in sports.
  • High school extracurricular activities : Males participating in two or more activities had 54 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who participated in no activities. Females participating in two or more activities had 33 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who participated in no activities.
  • High school absenteeism : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for females who missed 7 or more days of school in the first school term were 32 percent lower than the odds for those who missed 0 to 2 days.
  • Parental engagement : Males who often discussed school courses with their parents had 40 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who never had these discussions with their parents. Females who often discussed school courses with their parents had 49 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who never had these discussions with their parents.
  • High school student employment: The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for males who worked more than 20 hours per week were 28 percent lower than the odds for those who were unemployed. The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for females who worked more than 20 hours per week were 33 percent lower than the odds for those who were unemployed.

Whites: Examining these variables separately for Whites, the following factors were related to a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment: higher socioeconomic status, higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement, and higher 9th-grade GPA (table ELS-2). Other findings include the following:

  • Sex : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for White males were 36 percent lower than the odds for White females.
  • High school sports : White students who participated in high school sports had 60 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who did not participate in sports.
  • High school extracurricular activities : White students participating in two or more extracurricular activities had 54 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who participated in no activities.
  • High school absenteeism : White students who missed 7 or more days of school in the first school term had 29 percent lower odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who missed 0 to 2 days.
  • Cut or skipped class : White students who skipped class at least once had 23 percent lower odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who had never skipped class.
  • Parental engagement : White students who often discussed school courses with their parents had 38 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who never had these discussions with their parents.
  • High school student employment: The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for White students who worked more than 20 hours per week were 28 percent lower than the odds for those who were unemployed.
  • Close friends who dropped out: The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for White students who had one or more friends who dropped out of school were 31 percent lower than the odds of immediately enrolling for those students who had no close friends who dropped out.

White Males and Females: Examining these factors separately for White males and White females, the following factors were related to a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment for both groups: higher socioeconomic status, higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement, and a higher 9th-grade GPA (table ELS-3). Other findings include the following:

  • Had been retained : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for White males who had been held back in 10th grade or earlier were 34 percent lower than the odds for those who had never been retained.
  • High school sports : White males who participated in high school sports had 64 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who did not participate in sports. White females who participated in high school sports had 55 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who did not participate in sports.
  • High school extracurricular activities : White females participating in two or more extracurricular activities had 66 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who participated in no activities.
  • Parental engagement : White males who often discussed school courses with their parents had 49 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who never had these discussions with their parents.
  • High school student employment: The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for White females who worked more than 20 hours per week were 36 percent lower than the odds for those who were unemployed.
  • Close friends who dropped out: The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for White males who had one or more friends who dropped out of school were 31 percent lower than the odds for those students who had no close friends who dropped out. White females who had at least one close friend who dropped out of school also had 31 percent lower odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those students who had no close friends who dropped out.

Blacks: Examining these factors separately for Blacks, the following factors were related to a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment: higher socioeconomic status, higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement, and a higher 9th-grade GPA (table ELS-2). Other findings include the following:

  • Had been retained : Black students who had been held back in 10th grade or earlier had 46 percent lower odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who had never been retained.

Black Males and Females: Examining these factors separately for Black males and Black females, higher socioeconomic status and higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement were associated with a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment for Black males, while a higher 9th-grade GPA was associated with a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment for Black females (table ELS-3).

Hispanics: Examining these factors separately for Hispanics, the following factors were related to a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment: higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement and a higher 9th-grade GPA (table ELS-2). Other findings include the following:

  • Sex : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for Hispanic males were 41 percent lower than the odds for Hispanic females.
  • Had been retained : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for Hispanic students who had been held back in 10th grade or earlier were 45 percent lower than the odds for those who had never been retained.
  • High school sports : Hispanic students who participated in high school sports had 73 percent higher odds of immediate enrollment in postsecondary education than those who did not participate in sports.

Hispanic Males and Females: Examining these factors separately for Hispanic males and Hispanic females, higher 10th-grade mathematics achievement and a higher 9th-grade GPA were associated with a higher likelihood of immediate postsecondary enrollment for both groups (table ELS-3). Additional findings include the following:

  • Had been retained : The odds of immediately enrolling in postsecondary education for Hispanic females who had been held back in 10th grade or earlier were 59 percent lower than the odds for those who had never been retained.

Top

Table E-ELS-1a Percentage distribution of immediate postsecondary enrollment status of on-time high school graduates, by sex, race, and other selected characteristics: 2006

Table E-ELS-1b Mean socioeconomic status score, 10th-grade mathematics score, and 9th-grade GPA for on-time high school graduates, overall and by immediate postsecondary enrollment status: 2006

Table E-ELS-2 Summary of logistic regression analyses for variables predicting immediate enrollment in a postsecondary institution after completing high school, overall and by race/ethnicity and sex: 2006

Table E-ELS-3 Summary of logistic regression analyses for variables predicting immediate enrollment in a postsecondary institution after completing high school, within race/ethnicity by sex subgroups: 2006

10Students who graduated from high school by August 2004 or earlier.