Selected Findings: Averaged Freshman Graduation Rates for Public School Students

The averaged freshman graduation rate (AFGR) provides an estimate of the percentage of public high school students who graduate on time—that is, 4 years after starting 9th grade—with a regular diploma. The rate uses aggregate student enrollment data to estimate the size of an incoming freshman class and aggregate counts of the number of diplomas awarded 4 years later. The incoming freshman class size is estimated by summing the enrollment in 8th grade for 1 year, 9th grade for the next year, and 10th grade for the year after and then dividing by 3. The averaging is intended to account for higher grade retentions in the 9th grade. Although not as accurate as an on-time graduation rate computed from a cohort of students using student record data, this estimate of an on-time graduation rate can be computed with currently available data. The AFGR was selected from a number of alternative estimates that can be calculated using cross-sectional data based on a technical review and analysis of a set of alternative estimates (Seastrom et al. 2006a, 2006b). AFGR estimates are based on the Common Core of Data, State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education, with ungraded enrollments distributed proportionally to reported enrollments by grade (Seastrom et al. 2006c).²² This report presents state AFGR estimates for the 2003–04 school year.²³

• National averaged freshman graduation rate for public school students: The averaged freshman graduation rate in 2003–04 among public school students for the 48 reporting states and the District of Columbia was 75.0 percent (table 12). When an adjusted national rate is calculated using estimates for the two missing states, New York and Wisconsin, the rate is 74.3 percent.²⁴
• State averaged freshman graduation rates for public school students: For the class of 2003–04, the averaged freshman graduation rate ranged from 57.4 percent in Nevada to 87.6 percent in Nebraska (table 12). Fifteen states had rates of 80.0 percent or higher—Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, and Vermont. Eleven states and the District of Columbia had rates below 70.0 percent—Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
• Changes in rates from 2001–02 to 2003–04: Comparing the averaged freshman graduation rate among public school students for the 3 most recent years for which data are available, the rate increased from 72.6 percent in 2001–02 to 73.9 percent in 2002–03, and increased again to 74.3 percent²⁵ in 2003–04 (table 13). Of the 48 states with data for both the 2001–02 and 2003–04 school years, 43 experienced an increase in their rate over this period, with 15 increasing by 3 percentage points or more. Tennessee registered the highest increase (6.5 percentage points). Five states and the District of Columbia experienced declines, with three of these states and the District of Columbia experiencing a decline of less than 1 percentage point. The rates for Arizona and Nevada declined by 8 and 15 percentage points, respectively.

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²² Similar data are available in the CCD district level nonfiscal files. These files provide more demographic information about students, but are incomplete. NCES is studying imputation strategies for the district-level data that may result in somewhat different state-level estimates than presented in this report.

²³ These AFGR rates were reported in a previous NCES report (Seastrom et al. 2006c). They are included here in order to present a number of completion indicators together in one report.

²⁴ This 2003–04 adjusted national AFGR rate was calculated using the 2002–03 averaged freshman graduation rates for New York and Wisconsin, the two states missing diploma counts in 2003–04. Thus, this adjusted national rate assumes no change in New York and Wisconsin’s averaged freshman graduation rates between 2002–03 and 2003–04.

²⁵ For this comparison the 2003–04 adjusted national rate of 74.3 is used. This adjusted rate was calculated using the 2002–03 rates for New York and Wisconsin, two states with missing diploma counts data in 2003–04.