Event and Status Dropout Rates

Event Dropout Rates

Event rates calculated using the October 2000 CPS data measure the proportion of students who dropped out between October 1999 and October 2000⁶. These dropouts are 15- through 24-year-olds who were enrolled in high school in October 1999, but had not completed high school and were not enrolled in grades 10-12 a year later. According to this definition, a young person could complete high school by either earning a high school diploma or receiving an alternative credential such as a GED. In October 2000, 5 out of every 100 young adults (4.8 percent) who were enrolled in high school in October 1999 were no longer in school and had not successfully completed a high school program (table 1)⁷.

Over the past three decades, annual estimates of the event dropout rate have fluctuated between 4.0 and 6.7 percent (figure 1 and table B3). However, overall there has been a downward trend in event dropout rates, from 6.1 percent in 1972 to 4.8 percent in 2000⁸. The percentage of young adults who left school each year without successfully completing a high school program decreased from 1972 through 1987. Despite year-to-year fluctuations, the percentage of students dropping out of school each year has stayed relatively unchanged since 1987. Changes in data collection and estimation procedures coincided with an increase in the rates from 1991 through 1995 (see appendix D). Nevertheless, over the period from 1991 through 2000, there was no consistent upward or downward trend in event rates.