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Projections of Education Statistics to 2011
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Table A4.1.-Equations for public elementary and secondary teachers
Dependent Variable Equation R2 Durbin-Watson statistic1 Estimation technique2 Rho Time period
Elementary ELTCH = 94.0 + 1.8SGRANT + 0.03ELENR 0.99 1.7 AR1 0.98 1960 to
            (5.9)   (3.6)       (43.2) 1998
Secondary SCTCH = 74.1 + 1.5SGRANT3 + 0.03SCENR 0.95 1.5 AR1 0.72 1965 to
            (10.4)   (5.8)       (5.3) 1998

1For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1972, pages 251-252.
2AR1 indicates an estimation procedure for correcting the problem of first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pages 315- 318.
ELTCH = Number of public elementary classroom teachers, in thousands
SCTCH = Number of public secondary classroom teachers, in thousands
SGRANT = Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita SGRANT3 = Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita lagged 3 years
ELENR = Number of students enrolled in public elementary schools, in thousands
SCENR = Number of students enrolled in public secondary schools, in thousands

NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Elementary and Secondary Teacher Model. (This table was prepared June 2001.)

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