Chapter 3
High School Graduates
National
The number of high school graduates is projected to increase 11
percent over the projection period. Increases in the number of
graduates are expected for both public and private schools. The
significant rise in the number of graduates reflects the increase
in the 18-year-old population over the projection period, rather
than changes in the graduation rates of 12th graders (figure
34).
However, projections of graduates could be impacted by changes
in policies affecting graduation requirements. Projections of
public high school graduates that have been produced over the
past 18 years are less accurate than projections of public elementary
and secondary enrollment, but more accurate than projections of
earned degrees by level. For more information, see table
A2.
Total High School Graduates
A high school graduate is defined as an individual who has received
formal recognition from school authorities, by the granting of
a diploma, for completing a prescribed course of studies at the
secondary school level. This definition does not include other
high school completers, high school equivalency recipients, or
other diploma recipients.
The number of high school graduates from public and private
schools increased from 2.6 million in 1985-86 to 2.8 million in
1987-88 (table 23 and figure
35). Then, it decreased to 2.5 million in 1993-94, before
increasing to 2.8 million in 1998-99. The total number of high
school graduates is projected to rise to 3.1 million by 2010-11,
an increase of 11 percent from 1998-99.
High School Graduates, by Control
of Institution
The number of graduates of public high schools increased from
2.4 million in 1985-86 to 2.5 million in 1987-88 (table
23 and figure 36). Then,
it decreased to 2.2 million in 1993-94, before rising to 2.5 million
in 1998-99. Over the projection period, public high school graduates
are projected to increase to 2.8 million by 2010-11, an increase
of 11 percent from 1998-99.
The number of graduates of private high schools is projected
to increase from an estimated 273,000 in 1998-99 to 298,000 by
2010-11, an increase of 9 percent.
State
The expected 11 percent increase in public high school graduates
will be reflected in many states, with 28 states showing increases
(table 25 and figure
38). Projected trends in the number of public high school
graduates by state could be impacted by changes in policies affecting
graduation requirements.
The number of public high school graduates in the Northeast
is expected to increase 11 percent between 1998-99 and 2010-11
(table 25 and figure
39). Large increases are expected in Connecticut (25 percent),
Massachusetts (18 percent), New Hampshire (12 percent), and New
Jersey (24 percent). Smaller increases are expected in New York
(8 percent), Pennsylvania (3 percent), and Rhode Island (10 percent).
Decreases are projected for Maine (9 percent) and Vermont (9 percent).
The number of public high school graduates in the Midwest is
expected to increase by 2 percent between 1998-99 and 2010-11.
Increases are expected in Illinois (18 percent), Indiana (3 percent),
Michigan (3 percent), and Missouri (4 percent). Decreases are
expected in Iowa (4 percent), Kansas (3 percent), Minnesota (0.9
percent), Nebraska (10 percent), North Dakota (22 percent), Ohio
(2 percent), South Dakota (23 percent), and Wisconsin (3 percent).
Between 1998-99 and 2010-11, the number of public high school
graduates in the South will increase by 12 percent. Increases
are expected in Delaware (7 percent), District of Columbia (18
percent), Florida (28 percent), Georgia (28 percent), Maryland
(17 percent), North Carolina (28 percent), Tennessee (16 percent),
Texas (15 percent), and Virginia (17 percent). Decreases are expected
in Alabama (3 percent), Arkansas (5 percent), Kentucky (6 percent),
Louisiana (9 percent), Mississippi (2 percent), Oklahoma (8 percent),
South Carolina (0.7 percent), and West Virginia (18 percent).
The number of high school graduates in the West is expected
to increase, rising by 20 percent. The largest increases are expected
in Arizona (40 percent), California (26 percent), Colorado (21
percent), and Nevada (75 percent). Other increases are projected
in Alaska (8 percent), Idaho (2 percent), Oregon (6 percent),
and Washington (8 percent). Decreases are projected for Hawaii
(4 percent), Montana (16 percent), New Mexico (4 percent), Utah
(5 percent), and Wyoming (27 percent).
back to top
|
