Chapter 2

Higher Education Enrollment

• Total Higher Education Enrollment
• Enrollment, by Sex of Student
• Enrollment, by Attendance Status
• Enrollment, by Age
• Enrollment, by Control of Institution
• Enrollment, by Type of Institution
• Enrollment, by Level
• Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment
• Alternative Projections Based on Three Economic Scenarios

Overall enrollment in institutions of higher education* is expected to rise between 1998 and the year 2010. Changes in age-specific enrollment rates and college-age populations will affect enrollment levels over the next 12 years (figures 13 and 14). The most important factor in the projected rise of college enrollment is the projected increase of 18 percent in the traditional college-age population of 18- to 24-year-olds from 1998 to 2010 (table B4). The 25- to 29-year-old population is projected to decrease by 6 percent between 1998 and 2002, and then increase by 14 percent between 2002 and 2010, for a net increase of 7 percent. The 30- to 34-year-old population will decrease by 6 percent between 1998 and 2010. The 35- to 44-year-old population will increase by 1 percent between 1998 and 2000, and then decrease by 12 percent between 2000 and 2010. The increases in the younger population are expected to offset the loss of students from the older populations, thereby contributing to the increases in college enrollment over the projection period. The enrollment projections do not take into account such factors as the cost of a college education, the economic value of an education, and the impact of long distance learning due to technological changes. These factors may produce changes in enrollment levels. Projections of higher education enrollment that have been produced over the past 13 years are more accurate than projections of master's degrees and doctor's degrees, but less accurate than projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment that NCES has published over the same time period. For more information, see appendix A1.

Total Higher Education Enrollment

College enrollment increased from 12.2 million in 1985 to 14.5 million in 1992. Then it decreased to 14.3 million in 1995, before rising to 14.6 million in 1998 (table 10 and figure 15). Under the middle alternative, college enrollment is projected to rise to 17.5 million by the year 2010, an increase of 20 percent from 1998. This will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent over the projection period. For a discussion of the various alternatives.

The following tabulation shows key enrollment statistics for the average annual rate of growth (in percent) for 1985-98 and alternative projected rates of change for 1998-2010 (Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.)

Average annual rate of change (in percent)

Under the low alternative, college enrollment is projected to increase from an estimated 14.6 million in 1998 to 17.1 million by the year 2010. This will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent, for an increase of 17 percent over the projection period.

Under the high alternative, college enrollment is expected to increase from an estimated 14.6 million in 1998 to 18.2 million by the year 2010. This will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent, for an increase of 24 percent over the projection period.

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Enrollment, by Sex of Student

Women played a major role in the increase of enrollment between 1985 and 1998. The enrollment of women in college increased from 6.4 million in 1985 to an estimated 8.3 million in 1998, representing an average annual growth rate of 2.0 percent, for a 29-percent increase over the period (figure 17). Under the middle alternative, enrollment of women is expected to increase to 10.2 million by the year 2010, an increase of 22 percent from 1998, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. As a share of total college enrollment, women were 57 percent of all college students in 1998 compared with 52 percent in 1985. Women are expected to increase their share to 58 percent of college enrollment in the year 2010.

The enrollment of men in college increased from 5.8 million in 1985 to 6.5 million in 1992, before decreasing to an estimated 6.3 million in 1998. Under the middle alternative, enrollment of men is expected to increase to 7.3 million by the year 2010, a 16-percent increase from 1998, for an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent.

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Enrollment, by Attendance Status

Full-time enrollment increased from 7.1 million in 1985 to an estimated 8.4 million in 1998 (figure 19). This is an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, for an increase of 19 percent over the period. Under the middle alternative, full-time enrollment is expected to increase another 22 percent to 10.3 million by the year 2010, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent.

Part-time enrollment increased from 5.2 million in 1985 to an estimated 6.2 million in 1998. This is an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, for an increase of 20 percent over the period. Under the middle alternative, part-time enrollment is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent and reach 7.2 million by the year 2010, for an increase of 16 percent over the projection period.

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Enrollment, by Age

The alternative projections of higher education enrollment by age, sex, and attendance status are shown in tables 13A and 13B (middle alternative), table 14 (low alternative), and table 15 (high alternative). Projections of college attendance rates appear in appendix table A1.3. These projections are based on age-specific enrollment data from the Bureau of the Census and enrollment data from NCES.

Under the middle alternative, the period from 1990 to 2010 will be one of change in the age distribution of college students. In contrast to recent patterns, younger students are expected to become more prevalent on college campuses. The enrollment of students who are 18- to 24-years old increased from 7.9 million in 1990 to an estimated 8.4 million in 1998, an increase of 7 percent (tables 13A and 13B and figure 31). However, this number is expected to increase to 10.5 million by the year 2010, an increase of 25 percent from 1998. As a result, the proportion of students who are 18- to 24-years old, which remained at 57 percent in 1990 and 1998, is projected to be 60 percent by the year 2010.

The enrollment of students who are 25 years and over increased from 5.8 million in 1990 to an estimated 6.1 million in 1998, an increase of 5 percent. This number is projected to be 6.8 million in 2010, an increase of 11 percent. The proportion of students 25 years old and over remained at 42 percent in 1990 and 1998. This proportion is projected to be 39 percent by the year 2010.

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Enrollment, by Control of Institution

Enrollment in public institutions grew from 9.5 million in 1985 to an estimated 11.4 million in 1993, and then decreased to 11.1 million 1996, followed by a rise to 11.4 million in 2010, for a net increase of 20 percent over the period (figure 21). Under the middle alternative, public enrollment is expected to increase to 13.6 million by 2010, rising at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent, for an increase of 19 percent over the projection period.

Enrollment in private institutions, which include nonprofit and proprietary, increased from 2.8 million in 1985 to an estimated 3.2 million in 1998, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent, for an increase of 17 percent over the period. Under the middle alternative, private enrollment is expected to increase to 3.9 million by 2010, rising at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent, for an increase of 20 percent over the projection period.

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Enrollment, by Type of Institution

Enrollment in 4-year institutions increased from 7.7 million in 1985 to an estimated 9.0 million in 1998, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent, for a 17 percent increase over the period (table 11 and figure 23). Under the middle alternative, enrollment in 4-year institutions is expected to rise to 10.8 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent, for a 20-percent increase over the projection period.

Enrollment in 2-year institutions rose from 4.5 million in 1985 to 5.7 million in 1992 and then decreased to 5.6 million in 1998, for a net increase of 24-percent over the period (table 12). Under the middle alternative, enrollment in 2-year institutions is expected to rise to 6.7 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent, for a 19-percent increase over the projection period.

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Enrollment, by Level

Undergraduate enrollment increased from 10.6 million in 1985 to an estimated 12.6 million in 1998, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.3 percent, for a 19-percent increase over the period ( table 21 and figure 25). Under the middle alternative, undergraduate enrollment is expected to increase to 15.2 million by the year 2010, at a growth rate of 1.6 percent per year, for a 21-percent increase over the projection period.

Graduate enrollment rose from 1.4 million in 1985 to an estimated 1.7 million in 1998, at an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent, for a 27-percent increase over the period (table 24 and figure 27). Under the middle alternative, graduate enrollment is expected to increase to 2.0 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent, for a 13-percent increase over the projection period.

First-professional enrollment increased from 274,000 in 1985 to an estimated 288,000 in 1998, an average annual growth rate of 0.4 percent, for a 5-percent increase over the period (table 27 and figure 27). Under the middle alternative, first-professional enrollment is expected to increase to 317,000 by 2010. This represents an annual growth rate of 0.8 percent over the projection period, a 10-percent increase from 1998.

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Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment

Full-time-equivalent enrollment increased from 8.9 million in 1985 to an estimated 10.7 million in 1998, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent, for a 19-percent increase over the period (table 30 and figure 29). Under the middle alternative, full-time-equivalent enrollment is expected to increase to 12.9 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent, for a 21-percent increase over the projection period.

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Alternative Projections Based on Three Economic Scenarios

Higher education enrollment projections were based on projected enrollment rates, by age and sex, which were then applied to population projections by age and sex developed by the Bureau of the Census. The middle series population projections, which assume middle fertility and yearly net migration, were used.

Three sets of projections are presented for enrollment in institutions of higher education to indicate a range of possible outcomes. Each set of projections is based on alternative assumptions concerning the economy. The middle, low, and high alternatives of college enrollment reflect the base, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios of the economy developed by the company, Standard & Poor's DRI, for the projections of disposable income and unemployment rates. Under the three alternatives, full-time and part-time enrollment rates by age of men and women are modeled. The age-specific enrollment rates of men and women enrolled full time are a function of dummy variables by age, log of a four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and log unemployment rate by age group. The age-specific enrollment rates of men and women enrolled part time are a function of dummy variables by age and log of a four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita. These relationships will continue through 2010. For more information, see appendix A, section A.1.

The key economic factors of the higher education enrollment model are household income, which represents ability to pay, and an age-specific unemployment rate, which acts as a proxy for opportunity costs faced by students. Both of these measures are likely to decline during a weak or pessimistic economy, with the result that the estimated opportunity costs will be lower. This will have a positive impact on higher education enrollment, as students face less attractive alternatives. This will be apparent in the short term, resulting in a potential reversal in the expected pattern across the alternative economic scenarios. As a result, the high alternative projections will be lower than the low alternative projections. However, in the long term, the effect of the per capita income variable dominates the effects of the unemployment rate. As expected, this results in a pattern where the high alternative projections are greater than the low alternative projections.

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