(NCES 97-911) Ordering information
For many students, the end of 8th-grade signals the
beginning of a transition period. During this time, students and
parents make many decisions about high schools, courses of study,
and extracurricular school activities that will influence the
8th-grader's postsecondary education or occupational plans. It
is also realistic to hypothesize that a decision to participate
in high school varsity sports at the 8th-grade may lead to participation
in intercollegiate sports at the highest level-NCAA Division I.
At the Division I level, football teams face off in the Rose or
Orange bowls and basketball teams strive to make it to the "Final
Four." This report examines youth participation in both high
school and intercollegiate varsity athletics by following a cohort
of 8th-graders through high school and the first two years of
postsecondary education. Participation in intercollegiate varsity
sports is reported separately for three groups of students. The
first group is all 1988 8th-graders who were followed from 8th-grade
through two years after scheduled high school graduation (including
dropouts). The second group is those 8th-grade cohort members
who completed high school (high school graduates). The third group
is those 1988 8th-graders who attended 4-year colleges by 1994
(students attending 4-year colleges).
For the approximately 3 million students enrolled
in 8th-grade in 1988, was it realistic to dream about participation
in intercollegiate sports at 4-year colleges?1 For
most, the answer seems to be no. The proportion of 1988 8th-graders
reporting participation in intercollegiate sports2
at 4-year colleges is small. By 1994 (two years after scheduled
high school graduation), 5.2 percent (52 out of each 1,000 students)
actually reported participation in intercollegiate sports at 4-year
colleges. This proportion is reduced to 2.2 percent (22 out of
each 1,000 students) if participation at NCAA Division I schools3
is examined separately. For these Division I athletes, these numbers
may be further reduced if only student-athletes receiving athletic
aid are considered. According to data supplied by the NCAA, 48
percent of all NCAA Division I athletes in 1992/93 received athletic
aid.4 Other highlights of this analysis include:
Among members of the 8th-grade
class of 1988 (group 1):
Among the high school graduates from the 8th-grade
class of 1988 (group 2):
Among the students attending 4-year colleges from
the 8th-grade class of 1988 (group 3):
Use of NELS:88 data to estimate intercollegiate
sports participation rates
In this report, data from the National Education
Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) are used to investigate participation
in intercollegiate athletics by members of the 8th-grade class
of 1988. For each student who participated in the study between
the years 1988 (base-year) to 1994 (third follow-up), participation
status was examined for both high school varsity sports and intercollegiate
varsity sports. A student was classified as participating in intercollegiate
athletics if he/she attended a 4-year college and reported participation
in intercollegiate athletics.
For purposes of this analysis, four types of 4-year
colleges have been identified. Using data9 supplied
by the NCAA, codes identifying Divisions I, II, and III were attached
to the 4-year college identification codes of colleges attended
by NELS:88 students. Four-year colleges that did not have a NCAA
code were classified into the category "other." There
are 955 colleges that are classified into the three NCAA divisions
(Division I - 305 member schools; Division II - 260 member schools;
and Division III - 390 member schools). According to the 1994/95
NCAA manual, a Division I college "strives in its athletics
program for regional and national excellence and prominence."
Examples of Division I colleges include Duke University, Notre
Dame University, and the University of Washington. The NCAA manual
states that a Division II school "believes in offering a
maximum amount of intercollegiate athletics participation to as
many of its students as possible, whether or not these students
are athletically recruited or financially assisted." Examples
of Division II colleges include Portland State University (Oregon),
University of Alabama in Huntsville, and University of the District
of Columbia. The NCAA manual states that a Division III school
"encourages participation by maximizing the number and variety
of athletic opportunities in varsity, club, and intramural sports."
Examples of Division III colleges include CUNY City College (New
York), Frostburg State University (Maryland), and Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. Examples of non-NCAA 4-year colleges
include Southwestern Oklahoma State University and Western Washington
University.
Given the high level of participation in varsity
level sports in high schools across the country today and the
scarcity of openings on athletic teams at 4-year colleges, students
with collegiate athletic aspirations need to begin planning early.
First, these students must develop athletic skills that will allow
them to participate on their high school teams. Second, they must
begin planning early to meet the strict academic requirements
specified by the NCAA for freshman eligibility if they plan to
participate in intercollegiate athletics at NCAA Division I schools.10
Both of these factors, participation in high school varsity sports11
and academic eligibility as defined by NCAA's Propositions 48
and 16 are examined in this report. Since other factors such as
gender, race/ethnicity, and family socio-economic status (SES)
may also be related to final participation, these factors are
also examined.
Participation by gender
Males reported participation in intercollegiate sports
at higher rates than females across all 4-year colleges (6.6 vs.
3.7 percent)12 (see table 1). This same relationship
also held for reported participation at NCAA Division I colleges
(2.8 vs. 1.5 percent). This second relationship was supported
by data supplied by the NCAA. Using 1994 NCAA Division I data,
almost two times as many males participated in intercollegiate
athletics as females (84,448 vs. 42,819). It should be pointed
out though that participation by females at the high school varsity
level has increased by 623 percent during the past 21 years.13
Participation by race/ethnicity
Black and white cohort members were at least twice
as likely to report participation in intercollegiate athletics
at 4-year colleges as Hispanics. For blacks and whites, 4.9 percent
(or 49 out of each 1,000) and 5.8 percent (or 58 out of each 1,000),
respectively, reported participation in intercollegiate sports
as compared to 2.2 percent (22 out of each 1,000) for Hispanics.
Participation rates for blacks (4.9 percent), whites (5.8 percent),
and Asians (3.9 percent) did not differ significantly. When participation
rates are examined separately for Division I colleges, black reported
participation rates were similar to those of whites (2.3 percent
as compared to 2.5 percent).
Participation by SES
Examining college enrollment data by SES reveals
that 39.7 percent of high SES 8th-graders attended NCAA Division
I colleges compared to 14.7 percent for middle SES students and
5.2 percent for low SES students. Similar differences were seen
by SES in reported participation in intercollegiate athletics
with 1988 8th-grade students from higher SES groups more likely
to report participation in intercollegiate athletics at NCAA Division
I colleges than those from lower SES groups. For example, 5.0
percent of high SES cohort members reported participation as compared
to 1.5 percent for middle SES and 0.5 percent for low SES 8th-grade
students (see table 1). High SES students were 10 times as likely
to report participation in intercollegiate athletics as were low
SES students.
Participation in high school varsity athletics
For this analysis, NELS:88 students who graduated
from high school were classified into one of four groups depending
on the level of participation in high school sports. These groups
were:
- Elite varsity athletes -12.1%
- Other senior varsity athletes -22.0%
- Sophomore varsity only or junior varsity athlete s -18.6%
- Non-varsity or non-junior varsity students -47.3%
The first group (elite varsity athletes) included
individuals who reported both (1) participation in varsity level
sports during their sophomore and senior years and (2) being named
as captain or most valuable player in varsity sports during their
senior year. The second group (other senior varsity athletes)
included individuals who did not meet the criteria for group 1,
but who did report participation in high school varsity athletics
during their senior year. Group 3 (other athletes) included individuals
who did not report participation in varsity sports as a senior,
but did report participation in varsity athletics as a sophomore
or in junior varsity athletics. Group 4 (non-athletes) included
individuals who did not report participation in high school varsity
or junior varsity athletics in either sophomore or senior years.
Using this classification system, this report compares elite varsity
athletes to other varsity and junior varsity athletes and non-athletes.
For those students participating at the "elite"
level of varsity athletics in high school, almost 1 out of each
4 (24.5 percent) reported participation in intercollegiate athletics
at 4-year colleges by 1994 (see table 2). This participation rate
was greater than the rate for (1) other senior varsity athletes,
(2) other athletes or (3) non-athletes (24.5 percent as compared
to 10.5, 3.3, or 0.8 percent respectively). If participation is
limited to NCAA Division I colleges, 1 out of each 10 "elite"
varsity athletes reported participation compared to 1 in 20 for
other senior varsity athletes.
Participation by high school varsity athletic
participation and SES
For those 8th-grade cohort members who were classified
as "elite" varsity athletes, more advantaged students
(as measured by SES) were more likely than less advantaged students
to report participation in intercollegiate sports at 4-year colleges
(high SES = 30.4 percent; middle SES = 22.2 percent; low SES =
13.6 percent). This means that 30 out of each 100 elite varsity
athletes from advantaged backgrounds (high SES) reported participation
in intercollegiate athletics while about 14 out of each 100 elite
low SES students reported this same outcome.
Proportion of student body at 4-year colleges
who reported participation in intercollegiate sports
Overall, 14.8 percent of all NELS:88 students who
were attending 4-year colleges in 1994 reported participation
in intercollegiate sports (see table 3). For those attending NCAA
Division I schools this participation rate was 11.5 percent as
compared to 15.7 percent for NCAA Division II schools, 21.5 percent
for Division III schools, and 19.4 percent for non-NCAA 4-year
colleges. If the participation rate of elite varsity athletes
who attended 4-year colleges is examined separately, about 40
percent (40.7 percent) reported participation in intercollegiate
athletics and participation rates varied by the type college14
attended (e.g., Division I, II, or III). For NCAA Division III
schools, almost 60 percent (58.3 percent) of elite varsity athletes
reported participation, while at Division I colleges, about one
in three (32.5 percent) reported participation.
Who met the NCAA academic requirements as specified
in Propositions 48 and 16?
In 1983, the NCAA passed Proposition 48, resulting
in mandated academic eligibility requirements for entering freshman
varsity athletes at Division I colleges. Proposition 48 required
student athletes to have a minimum SAT score of 700 (ACT score
of 17) and a minimum GPA of 2.0 in at least 11 courses in core
subjects. In 1992, delegates to the 86th NCAA Annual Convention
made the academic requirements for student athletes more stringent
with the passage of Proposition 16. The new requirements were
implemented in two stages. In stage 1 (effective August 1, 1995),
Proposition 48 core course work requirements were increased from
11 to 13 courses, with the addition of two academic electives;
but the SAT/ACT and GPA requirements remained the same. In stage
2 (effective August 1, 1996), one of the academic electives was
moved to English, thus the number of English courses within the
13 required core courses increased from 3 to 4 and math requirements
explicitly include two years of math, where one year is algebra
and one year is geometry or a higher level mathematics course
for which geometry is a prerequisite. Also effective on August
1, 1996, a sliding scale combining SAT/ACT scores and GPA in at
least 13 core courses was implemented. With the sliding scale,
a student athlete with an SAT score of 700 (ACT of 17) must have
a GPA of at least 2.5; alternatively, a student athlete with an
SAT score of 900 (ACT score of 21) must have a GPA of at least
2.0. It should be pointed out that the SAT test has been recentered
by the Educational Testing Service for tests taken in April 1995
and thereafter. Because of this recentering, the NCAA has approved
a recentered score of 820 to be equivalent to a score of 700 on
previous tests.15 For this publication, a SAT score
of 700 will be used as the cut-off because the SAT tests taken
by the members of the 1988 8th-grade cohort were administered
prior to 1993.
When most of the NELS:88 students graduated from high school (1992), those interested in participation in NCAA Division I athletics were required to meet the requirements specified in the NCAA's Proposition 48 in order to participate as freshmen. When these requirements were applied to NELS:88 students attending 4-year colleges, 86.1 percent of those reporting intercollegiate athletic participation met the Proposition 48 requirements, which was similar to 89.1 percent of those who did not report intercollegiate athletic participation (see table 4). For those NELS:88 students attending NCAA Division I schools, the proportions were similar (89.6 percent for athletes and 91.3 percent for non-athletes).16
If Proposition 16,17 instead of Proposition
48, had been in effect for NELS:88 high school graduates, about
7 out of 10 Division I students would have met the Proposition
16 requirements-68.3 percent of students reporting intercollegiate
athletic participation and 72.9 percent for non-athletes. For
those reporting participation in intercollegiate athletics, this
would have been a drop of 21.3 percentage points.
Conclusions
For a typical 8th-grade male student, the probability
that he may eventually participate in intercollegiate athletics
at an NCAA Division I college two years after scheduled high school
graduation is small and even smaller for females. About 22 out
of each 1,000 students from the 8th-grade class of 1988 reported
participation in intercollegiate athletics at Division I schools.
Even for the elite high school varsity athlete, the participation
rate is modest. About 100 out of each 1,000 "elite"
high school varsity athletes reported participation in intercollegiate
athletics at Division I schools. While an athlete who demonstrates
that he/she can play at the high school level has an advantage
over other high school students, being an outstanding high school
athlete does not guarantee admission at a Division I school. For
those "elite" high school varsity athletes that do enroll
in NCAA Division I colleges, the participation rate increases
to 32.5 percent (325 out of each 1,000). Both athletic and academic
credentials are necessary to participate in intercollegiate athletics
at the Division I level. The prospective college athlete must
meet specific academic criteria (minimum GPA and SAT/ACT scores)
that have been established by the NCAA as specified in Proposition
48 (replaced by the more restrictive Proposition 16 as of August
1996) to be able to participate as a freshman in intercollegiate
athletics at a Division I college. It is important that high school
athletes, guidance counselors, and parents understand the roles
that GPA and scores on college admission tests play in college
admission and athletic eligibility.18
References
1993 NCAA Division I Graduation-Rates Summary, Edited by Martin T. Benson, Publications Editor, June 1993.
National Collegiate Athletic Association, Participation Statistics Report, NCAA 10416-5/95.
National Collegiate Athletic Association, 1995-96 NCAA Manual (Section 14.02.9).
National Collegiate Athletic Association, 1994-95 NCAA Manual.
National Collegiate Athletic Association, 1996-97
NCAA Manual.
Endnotes
1. In this report, the phrase "4-year colleges"
also includes 4-year universities.
2. For purposes of this analysis, to be considered
as having participated in intercollegiate athletics, a NELS:88
student had to self-report participation in intercollegiate athletics
at a 4-year college. The NELS:88 respondent was read the following
text :
"The next set of questions are about various
extracurricular activities at NAME OF INSTITUTION ATTENDED LONGEST*.
Please tell me if you have ever participated in any of these activities
while attending NAME OF INSTITUTION ATTENDED LONGEST."
* See technical appendix for more detailed information
on institution "attended longest" as compared to "first"
or "last' institution attended.
In creating this variable (participation in intercollegiate
athletics at 4-year colleges), the NAME OF INSTITUTION ATTENDED
LONGEST was checked to determine if it was a 4-year institution.
If it was a 4-year institution, then student responses to "VARATH"
were checked to determine participation in intercollegiate athletics.
The reader should also realize that not all intercollegiate athletic
activities are sanctioned by the NCAA. Thus, it is very likely
that a "yes" to the "intercollegiate athletics"
question may refer to participation in activities such as table
tennis, archery, bowling, or rugby which are not administered
by the NCAA at the Division I level (79 championships in 21 sports
for its member institutions). This means that the numbers presented
in this report may be biased upward for participation in NCAA
schools that only sanction selected sports. It should also be
pointed out that NELS:88 respondents who participated in intercollegiate
athletics at 2-year colleges or those who participated at 4-year
institutions other than the institution attended longest were
not used in this analysis. It is possible that a NELS:88 student
participating in athletics at a 2-year college may transfer to
a 4-year college to complete athletic eligibility.
3. According to a listing of NCAA colleges obtained
from the NCAA, there are 955 colleges that make up the NCAA Division
I, Division II, and Division III colleges; 305 are classified
as Division I, 260 are classified as Division II, and 390 are
classified as Division III.
4. For the year 1992-93, 121,248 student-athletes
participated in NCAA sanctioned sports at NCAA Division I colleges
(from NCAA "Participation Statistics Report," 10416-5/95-pages
112-113). A total of 58,398 of these athletes at Division I colleges
received athletic scholarships (from the NCAA Division I Graduation-Rates
Summary-page 7). This means that approximately 48 percent of Division
I athletes may have been on athletic scholarship.
5. For purposes of this analysis, NELS:88 high school
students were classified into one of four groups depending on
the level of participation in high school sports. The first group
(elite varsity athletes) included individuals who reported participation
in varsity level sports in 1990 and 1992, and being named captain
or most valuable player during 1992. The second group (other senior
varsity athletes) included individuals who did not meet the criteria
for group 1, but who did report participation in high school varsity
athletics in 1992. The third group (other varsity or junior varsity
athletes) included individuals who did not meet the criteria for
group 1 or group 2, but who did report participation in varsity
or junior varsity athletics. Group 4 (non-varsity or non-junior
varsity athletic respondents) included individuals who did not
report participation in high school athletics at the varsity or
junior varsity levels in either 1990 or 1992.
6. In a 1995 report "Participation Statistics
Report," the NCAA reported that there were 2,735,784 full-time
students in NCAA Division I schools. The report further reported
that 123,751 (4.5 percent) of these students participated in intercollegiate
athletics. Before this number can be compared to the NELS:88 data
(11.5 percent overall participation rate) though, it is important
to point out that not all college-level varsity sports participation
reported by NELS:88 are among the 21 administered NCAA championship
sports (e.g., table tennis, rugby, bowling). The NELS:88 questionnaire
item for varsity sports participation did not specify that the
sports had to be NCAA sanctioned. Thus, it is reasonable to assume
that some students responding "yes" to participation
in intercollegiate sports did not actually participate in NCAA
sanctioned sports. It may also be possible that a student participated
his/her first year (or semester) in college, but not the current
year (or semester).
Intercollegiate sports supported by the NCAA-As
reported on page 114 of the NCAA report "Participation Statistics
Report," men participated in 19 major sports including baseball,
basketball, cross country, fencing, football, golf, gymnastics,
ice hockey , lacrosse, rifle, skiing, soccer, swimming, tennis,
indoor track, outdoor track, volleyball, water polo, and wrestling
in Division I sports. The seven most popular sports were football,
baseball, outdoor track, indoor track, soccer, basketball, and
cross country. It should be noted that not all sports are supported
by each of the 305 NCAA Division I colleges. For example, only
10 colleges support men's skiing. As reported on page 115, women
participated in 15 sports including basketball, cross country,
fencing, field hockey, golf, gymnastics, lacrosse, skiing, soccer,
softball, swimming, tennis, indoor track, outdoor track, and volleyball.
The seven most popular sports were outdoor track, indoor track,
basketball, cross country, swimming, volleyball, and softball.
7. Non-NCAA-College is not a member of NCAA Divisions
I, II, or III.
8. Under NCAA's Proposition 48-freshman eligibility
for Division I sports-a potential college athlete must have a
high school GPA (Grade Point Average) of 2.0 in eleven core subjects
and a minimum SAT score of 700 (ACT score of 17). Under Proposition
16 (implemented August, 1996), the number of core courses increase
to 13 and a sliding scale is used to determine eligibility. For
example, while a student with a 2.0 GPA must have a SAT score
of 900 (ACT score of 21), a student with a GPA of 2.5 only needs
to have a SAT score of 700 (ACT score of 17). In the following
section, specific requirements of the non-centered version of
Proposition 16 are presented.
NCAA Proposition 16 Requirements-Using the following
eligibility index (as defined by Sections 14.3.1.1 and 14.3.1.1.1
of the 1995/96 NCAA Manual), freshmen may establish eligibility
for participation in Division I collegiate athletics by meeting
or exceeding one of the combinations of GPA and entrance exam
scores specified below.
Core GPA * SAT or ACT** 2.500 or above 700 17 2.475 710 18 2.450 720 18 2.425 730 18 2.400 740 18 2.375 750 18 2.350 760 19 2.325 770 19 2.300 780 19 2.275 790 19 2.250 800 19 2.225 810 20 2.200 820 20 2.175 830 20 2.150 840 20 2.125 850 20 2.100 860 21 2.075 870 21 2.050 880 21 2.025 890 21 2.000 900 21
* GPA is based on a minimum grade-point average in
a successfully completed core curriculum that includes at least
13 academic courses in the following areas:
English - 4 years
Mathematics [one year of algebra and one year of geometry (or one year of a higher-level mathematics course for which geometry is a prerequisite)] - 2 years
Natural or physical science (including at least one laboratory course, if offered by school) - 2 years
Additional courses in English, mathematics, natural or physical science - 2 years
Social science - 2 years
Additional academic courses [in any of the above areas or foreign language, computer science, philosophy or nondoctrinal religion (e.g., comparative religion) courses] - 1 year
** SAT-Scholastic Achievement Test; ACT-American
College Testing Program
NOTE: The SAT test has been recentered by the Educational
Testing Service for tests taken in April 1995 and thereafter.
Because of this recentering, the NCAA has approved a recentered
score of 820 to be equivalent to a score of 700 on previous tests.
For this publication, a SAT score of 700 will be used as the cut-off
because the SAT tests taken by the members of the 1988 8th-grade
cohort were administered prior to 1993.
9. The listing supplied by the NCAA included mailing
labels for Division I, II, and III member colleges. It should
be pointed out that it is possible for a member college to be
on the Division I mailing list, but not be at the Division I level
in all sports.
10. The actual NCAA application process for Division
I schools involves (1) the high school attended by the high school
student athlete, (2) the student athlete, and (3) the NCAA Clearinghouse.
The Clearinghouse serves as the gate keeper in the process by
evaluating information provided by the high school and the student
athlete applicant. This group determines who is a qualifier, partial
qualifier, or nonqualifier (see 1995-96 NCAA Manual, Section 14.02.9).
Information provided by the applicant's high school includes descriptions
of the courses offered by the school. The NCAA Clearinghouse evaluates
these course listings and makes a determination as to which can
be used to satisfy the 13 core courses required by Proposition
16. The NCAA HOTLINE number is 1-800-638-3731.
The student athlete applicant must also fill out
an application that states the applicant's intention to participate
in varsity sports at the collegiate level. The NCAA Clearinghouse
keeps applicants advised as to their status on meeting the freshman
eligibility requirements. In addition, applicants can use the
NCAA automated phone number by entering their personal ID number
to receive a message as to their status. For those students who
do not meet the core course or GPA requirements at the end of
eight semesters in high school, the student athlete loses one
year of eligibility at Division I schools. Student athletes are
allowed to take summer courses during their freshman, sophomore,
and junior years and still be in the eight semester limit. They
are also allowed to take the SAT or ACT tests more than once with
the highest scores on the separate tests being used to determine
athletic eligibility.
11. Information on participation in high school varsity
sports was collected in 1990 and 1992 when most of the NELS:88
students were sophomores and seniors respectively.
12. Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972
prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex in Federally funded
education programs and activities, including athletics. Although
participation rates for females are less than the participation
rates for males, the rates for females have increased greatly
since the enactment of Title IX.
13. For the typical college athlete, participation
in sports began in elementary school. The better athletes from
elementary schools continued to participate in varsity athletics
at the high school level. As reported by the National Federation
of State High School Association in the report "Participation
Statistics Report"-page 122, participation in high school
athletics has increased during the past 21 years from 3,960,932
in 1971 to 5,603,285 in 1993-94. This 41 percent increase can
be explained entirely by increased participation by girls whose
participation increased by 623 percent from 294,015 in 1971 to
2,124,755 in 1993-94. If a specific sport such as basketball is
examined separately, girls' participation in this sport has increased
from 132,299 in 1972 to 412,576 in 1994-95. This is a 312 percent
increase. It should be pointed out that this increase in female
participation levels coincides with the passage of Title IX of
the education amendments of 1972.
14. Each of the three NCAA divisions has its own
philosophy regarding athletic participation and emphasis on sports.
As reported in the 1994-95 NCAA manual, a Division I college "strives
in its athletics program for regional and national excellence
and prominence." Colleges in this division also emphasize
"spectator-oriented sports, as a reflection of its goal of
maintaining an appropriate competitive level in its sports program."
Division II colleges believe "in offering a maximum amount
of intercollegiate athletics participation to as many of its students
as possible...." Athletically related financial aid is at
a more modest level than Division I colleges. At the other extreme,
a Division III college "encourages participation by maximizing
the number and variety of athletic opportunities in varsity, club
and intramural sports." Athletes do not receive more favorable
treatment for financial aid than do other students.
15. Crosswalk for recentered SAT scores---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Section 14.3.1.1.1 (Initial Eligibility Index) from 1996/97 NCES Manual Combined Core GPA SAT1 SAT recentered2 ACT scores
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2.500 & above 700 820 68 2.475 710 830 69 2.45 720 840-850 70 2.425 730 860 70 2.4 740 860 71 2.375 750 870 72 2.35 760 880 73 2.325 770 890 74 2.3 780 900 75 2.275 790 910 76 2.25 800 920 77 2.225 810 930 78 2.2 820 940 79 2.175 830 950 80 2.15 840 960 80 2.125 850 960 81 2.1 860 970 82 2.075 870 980 83 2.05 880 990 84 2.025 890 1000 85 2 900 1010 86
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 If taken prior to April 1, 1995 2 If taken on or subsequent to April 1, 1995
17. It should be pointed out the NELS:88 students
who reported participation in intercollegiate athletics at Division
I colleges did not have to meet the requirements of Proposition
16. They graduated under the less stringent requirements of Proposition
48. Thus, we do not know how the NELS:88 high school graduates
would have performed on the stricter requirements if they would
have known about them. We can assume though that some would have
stepped up their academic activity so as to meet the more stringent
requirements.
18. For more information (details/explanations) related
to NCAA initial-eligibility Clearinghouse issues, the NCAA
HOTLINE number is 1-800-683-3731.
Appendix: Technical notes for NELS:88
The NELS:88 Baseline comprised a national probability
sample of all regular public and private 8th grade schools in
the 50 states and the District of Columbia in the 1987-88 school
year. During the base year data collection, students, parents,
teachers, and school administrators were selected to participate
in the survey. A total of 24,599 8th-grade students participated
in the base-year survey (93 percent response rate).
The NELS:88 first follow-up survey was conducted
during the spring of 1990. Students, dropouts, teachers, and school
administrators participated in the follow-up, with a successful
data collection effort for 17,424 individuals in the student survey
(approximately 93 percent response rate). Prior to data collection,
the sample was freshened with tenth-grade students who did not
have the opportunity to be in the 8th-grade sample during the
base-year (e.g., out of country).
During second follow-up data collection activities
(1992), data were collected from students, dropouts, parents,
teachers, school administrators, and extant high school transcripts.
Again, as was done in the first follow-up, the sample was freshened.
In addition, high school transcripts were collected.
During third follow-up data collection activities
(1994), data were collected from 14,915 respondents (94 percent
response rate). As of 1994, these respondents had taken many different
paths that included (1) dropping out of high school, (2) high
school graduation, (3) entry into the world of work, (4) entry
into postsecondary education, and (5) family formation. For those
going on to postsecondary education, information was collected
on type of college attended and activities experienced while in
college. One of these activities was participation in intercollegiate
sports. For those NELS:88 students attending 4-year colleges,
information provided by the NCAA (i.e., type of NCAA college-Division
I, II, or III) was merged onto respondent records.
Characteristics of the sample used for this report
The student sample used for this study included all NELS:88 8th-grade students who remained in the study through third follow-up. Excluded students included base year ineligible and freshened (first and second follow-up) respondents. For purposes of this analysis, the third follow-up panel weight was used.
Characteristics of retained students and students
with incomplete data
For this analysis, the distribution of 1988 8th-grade
students who were (1) retained for this analysis ("complete
cases"), and (2) excluded because of incomplete data (e.g.,
status could not be determined or imputed "incomplete cases")
were compared. The major point to be made in examining this data
is that there are very few incomplete cases.
Sampling errors
The data were weighted using the third follow-up
panel weight (F3PNLWT) to reflect the sampling rates (probability
of selection) and adjustments for unit nonresponse. The complex
sample design was taken into account when a Taylor series approximation
procedure was used to compute the standard errors in this report.
The standard error is a measure of the variability of a sample
estimate due to sampling. It indicates, for a given sample size,
how much variance there is in the population of possible estimates
of a parameter. If all possible samples were selected under similar
conditions, intervals of 1.96 standard errors below to 1.96 standard
errors above a particular statistic would include the true population
parameter being estimated for about 95 percent of these samples
(i.e., 95 percent confidence interval). Comparisons noted in this
report are significant at the 0.05 level, using Bonferroni adjusted
t-tests where appropriate.
Standard errors for all of the estimates are presented
in Tables 1, 2, and 3. These standard errors can be used to produce
confidence intervals. For example, an estimated 5.2 percent of
1988 8th-graders went on to participate in intercollegiate sports.
This figure has an estimated standard error of 0.32 percent. Therefore,
the estimated 95 percent confidence interval for this statistic
is approximately 4.6 percent to 5.8 percent.
Definitions of criteria used
Participation in intercollegiate athletics-The respondent
reported "yes" to the question, "Did you ever participate
in varsity intercollegiate athletics?"
Participation in high school athletics-For purposes
of this analysis, NELS:88 high school students were classified
into one of four groups depending on the level of participation
in high school sports. The first group (elite athletes) included
individuals who reported participation in varsity level sports
in 1990 and 1992, and being named captain or most valuable player
during 1992. The second group (other senior varsity athletes)
included individuals who did not meet the criteria for group 1,
but who did report participation in high school varsity athletics
in 1992. The third group (other varsity or junior varsity) included
individuals who did not meet the criteria for group 1 or group
2, but who did report participation in varsity or junior varsity
athletics. Group 4 (non-varsity or non-junior varsity athletic
respondents) included individuals who did not report participation
in high school athletics at the varsity or junior varsity levels
in either 1990 or 1992.
The following variables were used to create the athletic
participation variable.
FIRST FOLLOW-UP VARIABLES
F1S41AA='PLAYED BASEBALL/SOFTBALL AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AB='PLAYED BASKETBALL AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AC='PLAYED FOOTBALL AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AD='PLAYED SOCCER AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AE='PARTICIPATED ON SWIM TEAM AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AF='PLAYED OTHER TEAM SPORT AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AG='PLAYED AN INDIVIDUAL SPORT AT SCHOOL'
SECOND FOLLOW-UP VARIABLES
F2S29G='NAMED MOST VALUABLE PLAYER ON SPORT TEAM'
F2S30AA='PARTICIPATED ON A TEAM SPORT AT SCHOOL'
F2S30AB='PARTICIPATED IN INDIVIDUAL SPORT AT SCHOOL'
Other variables used in analysis
Attendance at 4-year college-For this analysis, a
student was considered to be attending a 4-year college if "institution
attended the longest" was a 4-year college. In 90 percent
of the cases where "institution attended the longest"
was a 4-year college," the "first institution"
attended was also the longest. In 89 percent of the cases, the
"last institution" attended was also the longest. For
the 11 percent of the cases where the ID of the "last institution"
attended did not match the ID of the "longest college"
attended, 97 percent of the time both institutions were 4-year
colleges.
Gender of student (F3SEX)-F3SEX is based on the first
follow-up (F1SEX) composite and is augmented by second follow-up
new student supplement information (in F2N2) if appropriate or,
if still missing, by imputation from student first names.
Student's race/ethnicity (F3RACE1)-F3RACE is based
on F1RACE (first follow-up race/ethnicity variable) and is supplemented
when appropriate with second follow-up new student supplement
data (in F2N17). If F2RACE1 was still missing, available information
from the contractor's Survey Management System was used to fill
in missing values.
Socio-Economic Status of student's family (F2SES1Q)-Indicates
the quartile into which F2SES1 falls (level 1 = bottom 25%; level
2 = middle two quartiles; and level 3 = high 25%). F2SES1 was
constructed using base year parent questionnaire data, when available.
The following parent data were used: Father's education level,
mother's education level, father's occupation, mother's occupation,
and family income (data coming from BYP30, BYP31, BYP34B, BYP37B,
and BYP80). See page H-12 in NELS:88 Second Follow-up User's Manual
for a detailed description of procedures used to create the SES
variable.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to express their gratitude to the
various reviewers of this report. In particular, a special thanks
to Mary Frase who provided many valuable suggestions and comments
before and throughout the adjudication process. We would also
like to thank the following individuals who served as the principal
reviewers and who also provided valuable criticisms and helpful
suggestions: Susan Ahmed of the Statistical Standards and Methodology
Group, NCES; Larry Ogle of the Education Assessment Group, NCES;
Joanell Porter of the Surveys and Cooperative Systems Group, NCES;
Marco Clark, Head of the Counseling Department, DeMatha High School,
Hyattsville, Maryland; Bill Thompson, ABT Associates Inc.; and
Daniel Nestel and Ursula Walsh of the NCAA.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1.-Percentage of 1988 8th-graders who participated in intercollegiate sports, by gender, race/ethnicity, socio-economic status, level of high school athletic participation, and type of college attended longest by 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Any Any NCAA NCAA NCAA Non-NCAA Student 4-year NCAA Division I Division II Division III 4-year characteristics college college college college college college ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total 5.2 (0.32)1 4..3 (0.30) 2.2 (0.24) 0.9 (0.11) 1.3 (0.12) 0.8 (0.12) Gender Males 6.6 (0.52) 5.6 (0.50) 2.8 (0.42) 1.3 (0.19) 1.5 (0.17) 1.1 (0.19) Females 3.7 (0.33) 3.1 (0.31) 1.5 (0.25) 0.6 (0.11) 1.0 (0.14) 0.6 (0.13) Race/ethnicity Asian 3.9 (1.11) 3.4 (1.07) 1.5 (0.44) 0.9 (0.82) 1.0 (0.49) 0.5 (0.26) Hispanic 2.2 (0.40) 1.9 (0.36) 1.1 (0.25) 0.4 (0.19) 0.3 (0.19) 0.3 (0.18) Black 4.9 (0.98) 4.3 (0.88) 2.5 (0.74) 1.4 (0.51) 0.4 (0.13) 0.6 (0.27) White 5.8 (0.40) 4.8 (0.37) 2.3 (0.30) 0.9 (0.11) 1.6 (0.16) 1.0 (0.15) Socio-economic status (SES)2 Low 1.5 (0.22) 1.1 (0.19) 0.5 (0.14) 0.3 (0.11) 0.2 (0.07) 0.4 (0.12) Medium 4.3 (0.36) 3.5 (0.33) 1.5 (0.24) 1.0 (0.17) 1.1 (0.14) 0.8 (0.17) High 10.2 (0.84) 8.9 (0.81) 5.0 (0.75) 1.3 (0.22) 2.6 (0.33) 1.3 (0.29) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1Numbers in parenthesis ( ) represent standard errors. 2Socio-economic status (SES)-Low SES represents students who are classified in bottom 25 percent on a measure of socio-economic status that uses father's and mother's occupation and education and family income; middle SES represents students classified in middle two quartiles; high SES represents students classified in top 25 percent. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, , National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988/94: Base year through third follow-up. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 2.-Percentage of 1988 8th-graders graduating from high school who participated in intercollegiate sports, by level of high school athletic participation and socio- economic status, and type of college attended longest for the two year period 1992-94 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Selected Any Any NCAA NCAA NCAA Non-NCAA characteristics 4-year NCAA Division I Division II Division III 4-year of students college college college college college college Total 6.3 (0.38)1 5.3 (0.35) 2.7 (0.29) 1.1 (0.13) 1.5 (0.14) 1.0 (0.14) Level of high school varsity athletic participation Elite varsity 24.5 (1.64) 21.1 (1.49) 10.5 (1.19) 4.3 (0.63) 6.3 (0.81) 3.4 (0.65) Senior varsity 10.5 (1.05) 8.7 (0.98) 4.5 (0.89) 2.0 (0.43) 2.1 (0.32) 1.8 (0.45) Other sopho- more varsity or junior varsity 3.3 (0.42) 2.8 (0.40) 1.2 (0.26) 0.6 (0.19) 1.0 (0.25) 0.4 (0.14) Not varsity or junior varsity 0.8 (0.18) 0.6 (0.13) 0.3 (0.11) 0.1 (0.03) 0.2 (0.07) 0.3 (0.12) Level of high school athletic participation by SES2 Elite varsity athletes Low SES 13.6 (2.74) 10.1 (2.44) 4.1 (1.61) 4.2 (1.80) 1.8 (0.88) 3.5 (1.57) Middle SES 22.2 (2.44) 19.3 (2.38) 8.4 (2.05) 4.7 (0.93) 6.2 (1.14) 2.9 (0.83) High SES 30.4 (2.71) 26.4 (2.60) 4.7 (1.95) 3.9 (0.92) 7.7 (1.39) 4.0 (1.21) Other senior varsity athletes Low SES 4.6 (1.19) 3.2 (1.06) 2.4 (0.96) 0.4 (0.30) 0.5 (0.35) 1.3 (0.53) Middle SES 8.0 (1.11) 6.1 (0.90) 2.3 (0.51) 2.2 (0.70) 1.6 (0.36) 1.9 (0.66) High SES 16.8 (2.26) 14.9 (2.23) 8.8 (2.26) 2.5 (0.70) 3.6 (0.73) 1.9 (0.80) Sophomore varsity only or junior varsity athletes Low SES 2.0 (0.82) 1.4 (0.74) 0.7 (0.44) 0.7 (0.60) 0.0 (0.00) 0.6 (0.35) Middle SES 2.0 (0.45) 1.7 (0.42) 0.5 (0.20) 0.5 (0.26) 0.7 (0.27) 0.3 (0.17) High SES 5.9 (1.00) 5.4 (0.97) 2.7 (0.68) 0.7 (0.33) 2.1 (0.62) 0.5 (0.29) Not varsity or junior varsity Low SES 0.4 (0.19) 0.2 (0.13) 0.0 (0.00) 0.04 (0.04) 0.2 (0.12) 0.2 (0.14) Middle SES 0.9 (0.29) 0.7 (0.22) 0.4 (0.19) 0.1 (0.05) 0.2 (0.09) 0.2 (0.19) High SES 1.2 (0.35) 0.7 (0.26) 0.4 (0.19) 0.0 (0.00) 0.3 (0.18) 0.5 (0.24) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1Numbers in parenthesis ( ) represent standard errors. 2Socio-economic status (SES)-Low SES represents students who are classified in bottom 25 percent on a measure of socio-economic status that uses father's and mother's occupation and education and family income; middle SES represents students classified in middle two quartiles; high SES represents students classified in top 25 percent. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, , National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988/94: Base year through third follow-up. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 3.-Percentage of 1992 NELS:88 high school graduates attending 4-year colleges who participated in intercollegiate sports, by type of college attended longest for the period 1992-94 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Participation in high school varsity athletics ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Non-varsity varsity or and non- Elite Senior junior junior Classification of college Total varsity varsity varsity varsity Total 14.8 (0.80)* 40.7 (2.34) 20.4 (1.78) 8.1 (0.99) 2.4 (0.50) NCAA college 14.2 (0.83) 39.8 (2.36) 19.3 (1.86) 8.0 (1.06) 1.9 (0.44) Division I college 11.5 (1.13) 32.5 (3.11) 16.0 (2.68) 5.3 (1.10) 1.7 (0.59) Division II college 15.7 (1.68) 43.5 (4.85) 22.4 (3.88) 11.2 (3.36) 0.9 (0.45) Division III college 21.5 (1.70) 58.3 (4.25) 28.0 (3.44) 14.2 (3.14) 3.5 (1.19) Non-NCAA college 19.4 (2.32) 46.9 (6.77) 28.2 (5.37) 9.0 (2.91) 6.1 (2.60) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ *Numbers in parenthesis ( ) represent standard errors. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, , National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988/94: Base year through third follow-up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 4.-Percentage of 1988 8th graders attending 4-year colleges who met the requirements of NCAA's Propositions 48 and 16, by type of college attended longest for the period 1992-94 and participation in intercollegiate athletics ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Type of 4-year college Proposition 48 Proposition 16 attended for longest Intercollegiate athlete Intercollegiate athlete period of time Yes No Yes No Total 86.1 (1.91)* 89.1 (0.74) 64.0 (3.09) 70.3 (1.29) NCAA college 86.3 (2.09) 89.8 (0.77) 64.7 (3.32) 70.8 (1.37) Division I 89.6 (2.74) 91.3 (0.82) 68.3 (4.86) 72.9 (1.55) Division II 79.7 (4.81) 81.5 (2.31) 57.4 (6.05) 61.8 (2.96) Division III 85.3 (3.16) 93.1 (1.41) 63.7 (4.14) 72.8 (2.67) Non-NCAA college 84.3 (4.72) 83.6 (2.20) 59.5 (7.52) 66.1 (2.84) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- *Numbers in parenthesis ( ) represent standard errors. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988/94: Base year through third follow-up. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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