STATISTICS IN BRIEF
AUGUST 1995WHO CAN PLAY? AN EXAMINATION OF NCAA'S PROPOSITION 16
Effective August 1, 1996, new academic provisions specified in the
National Collegiate Athletic Association's (NCAA) Proposition 16 will
be fully implemented. These provisions will replace those in effect
under Proposition 48. Under Proposition 16 the eligibility
requirements for freshman participation in Division I college
varsity sports are more strict than the current Proposition 48
requirements. The new criteria are based on a combination of high
school grade point average (GPA) in 13 core courses and specified SAT
(or ACT) scores.1 The purpose of this report is to study 1992 high
school seniors to see how many meet these new NCAA requirements. The
requirements are applied to the transcripts of a sample of 1992 high
school seniors who (1) have graduated with their high school class on
schedule, (2) have applied to one or more colleges, and (3) have
taken the SAT and/or ACT college entrance examinations. Students who
met these three conditions are referred to in this report as
college-bound2. Findings from this study reveal that:
- Five-sixths (83.2 percent) of 1992 college-bound high school
seniors met the NCAA Proposition 48 freshmen eligibility
requirements for athletic participation as freshmen; when the
stricter Proposition 16 provisions were invoked, the percent
qualifying dropped to about two-thirds (64.7 percent).
- Only about half of the black (46.4 percent) and Hispanic (54.1
percent) college-bound high school seniors met the Proposition
16 requirements, as compared to approximately 67 percent of
white and Asian college-bound high school seniors.
- College-bound high school seniors from the lowest of the
socioeconomic status (SES) levels were the least likely to meet
the Proposition 16 requirements, with only 42 percent qualifying
to participate in varsity sports as freshmen.
- College-bound high school athletes met the requirements at the
same rate as non-athletes.
Background for NCAA legislation leading up to Proposition 16
In 1984 the NCAA passed Proposition 48, resulting in mandated academic
eligibility requirements for freshman varsity athletes. Proposition
48 required student athletes to have a minimum SAT score of 700 (ACT
score of 17) and a minimum GPA of 2.0 in at least 11 courses in core
subjects. In 1992, delegates to the 86th NCAA Annual Convention
strengthened the academic requirements for student athletes with the
passage of Proposition 16. The new requirements will be implemented
in two stages. In stage 1 (effective August 1, 1995), Proposition 48
core course work requirements will be increased from 11 to 13 courses,
with the addition of two academic electives, but the SAT/ACT and GPA
requirements will remain the same. In stage 2 (effective August 1,
1996), one of the academic electives is moved to English, thus the
number of English courses within the 13 required core courses will
increase from 3 to 4 and math requirements will explicitly include
algebra and geometry. Also effective on August 1, 1996, a sliding
scale that combines SAT/ACT scores and GPA in at least 13 core courses
will be implemented. With the sliding scale, a student athlete with
an SAT score of 700 (ACT of 17) must have a GPA of at least 2.5;
alternatively, a student athlete with an SAT score of 900 (ACT
score of 21) must have a GPA of at least 2.03.3
Application of NCAA criteria to a national sample of 1992 seniors
In this report, data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of
1988 (NELS:88) are used to study 1992 college-bound high school
seniors. For each student, high school transcripts are examined to
determine (1) courses completed, (2) course grades, (3) SAT/ACT test
scores, and (4) high school graduation dates. The academic
eligibility requirements of both Proposition 48 and Proposition 16 are
used to classify 1992 college-bound high school seniors in this
report.4 For purposes of comparison, a measure of high school
athletic participation and selected demographic and social
characteristics of the college-bound seniors are also included in this
report.
Proposition 48 vs. Proposition 16
Nearly all college-bound seniors (96.1 percent) met the Proposition 48 requirement of the completion of at least 11 core courses, including 3 years of English, 2 years of math, 2 years of natural or physical sciences, and 2 years of social sciences, and 2 years of additional academic courses (see figure 1). However, under Proposition 16, as mentioned earlier, the number of English classes increases to 4, the 2-course mathematics requirement is changed to explicitly include algebra, geometry, or a higher-level mathematics course, and 1 additional academic elective is included. Approximately 75 percent of the college-bound seniors in 1992 met this criteria; as a result, under Proposition 16, a full 25 percent of the 1992 college-bound seniors would be excluded from freshman varsity athletics solely on the basis of course work. As student athletes become aware of the Proposition 16 changes, the percent of college-bound seniors meeting the increased course requirements might logically be expected to increase.
Figure 1 - Percentage of 1992 college-bound high school seniors meeting Proposition 48 and Proposition 16 course requirements
Figure 1 - Footnotes
1. Completed 11 core courses including 3 years of English, 2 years of math, 2 years of natural or physical sciences, 2 years of social sciences, and 2 additional academic courses.
2. Completed 13 core courses including 4 years of English, 2 years of math (including algebra and geometry), 2 years of natural or physical science, 2 years of social sciences, 1 additional academic course in english, mathematic, or natural or physical science, and 2 years of additional academic courses in any of the above areas or foreign language, cumputer science, philosophy, or nondoctrinal religion.
Academic performance (GPA) and college admission test scores further
reduce the number of college-bound seniors eligible to participate in
freshman varsity athletics. Under the Proposition 48 requirements of
a GPA of 2.0 in at least 11 core subjects and an SAT of 700 (ACT of
17), 83.2 percent of all 1992 college-bound seniors were eligible for
participation in Division I freshman varsity athletics. The sliding
scale included in the Proposition 16 provisions reduces the percentage
of eligible freshmen to 64.7 percent (down from 75 percent who met the
Proposition 16 coursework requirement), thus another 10 percent (or 35
percent in total) of 1992 college-bound seniors would not be eligible
for Division I freshman varsity athletics under Proposition 16 (see figure 2)
Figure 2 - Percentage of 1992 college-bound high school seniors eligible to participate in Division I college sports as freshmen uder Proposition 48 and Proposition 16
Overall eligibility using Proposition 16
While 64.7 percent of all 1992 college-bound high school seniors met
Proposition 16's combined sliding scale standard, higher percentages
scored above the minimums for the separate components. For example,
87.5 percent had SAT scores of 700 (ACT scores of 17) or higher; 74.7
percent had taken the required 13 core courses; and 94.7 percent of
those who met the 13 core course requirement had GPAs of 2.0 or higher
(see table 1). It must be remembered though that a student-athlete
who scores at the minimum level for both the SAT/ACT and GPA will not
pass the Proposition 16 standard. By definition, the sliding scale
formula requires that students with a GPA of 2.0 must have an
SAT score of 900 (ACT score of 21) or higher. Although almost
two-thirds of all 1992 college-bound high school seniors met all of
the Proposition 16 criteria, this proportion was not the same for all
groups when categorized by race\ethnicity or socio-economic status
(SES).
Eligibility by race/ethnicity
Two-thirds of Asian (67.7 percent) and white (67.4 percent) college-bound seniors met the NCAA Proposition 16 requirements, compared to about one-half of black (46.4 percent) and Hispanic (54.1 percent) college-bound seniors who met the same eligibility requirements (see figure 3). This same relationship also held for the SAT/ACT component of the formula when it was considered separately. Almost twice the percentage of Asian and white college-bound seniors had an SAT score of at least 900 (ACT score of 21 or above) as compared to black and Hispanic college-bound seniors (61.8 percent and 61.3 percent as compared to 29.4 percent and 34.6 percent). When the lower end of the scale was considered, that is an SAT score of at least 700 or an ACT score of at least 17, the same relationship held, but a substantially higher percentage of each group met the criteria (91.1 percent of whites and 88.5 percent of Asians as compared to 67.4 percent of blacks and 71.1 percent of Hispanics).
Figure 3 - Percentage of 1992 college-bound high school seniors meeting Proposition 16 eligibily requirements by race/ethnicity
The results are not as clear cut for the GPA criteria for those who
met the 13 core course requirement. Some 93.2 percent of Asians, 84.4
percent of whites, and 76.0 percent of Hispanics as compared to 60.8
percent of black college-bound seniors had GPAs of 2.5 or higher in
the required core courses. Higher percentages met the GPA requirement
of 2.0 or higher--the lowest percentage is 83.8 percent for blacks,
with percentages for Asians, whites,and Hispanics of 95 percent or
better.
Eligibility by SES
Using a measure of socio-economic status5, it was found that students from higher SES groups were classified as being eligible to participate in sports in higher proportions than those from lower SES groups. For example, 73.4 percent of high SES college-bound seniors met the Proposition 16 eligibility requirement as compared to 60.9 percent for middle SES and 42.3 percent for low SES college-bound seniors (see Figure 4). When the individual SAT/ACT and GPA components were examined for these groups, it was found that the SAT/ACT component was a major limiting factor. For example, high SES students were over three times as likely to have an SAT score of 900 (ACT score of 21) as were low SES students (72.2 percent as compared to 24 percent) (see figure 5). Although significant, this same relationship was not as strong for the comparison between high and low SES students meeting the Proposition 16 course requirements (79 percent as compared to 61.5 percent). Similarly, within the subset of students who met the course requirements, 87 percent of the high SES students compared to 76.2 percent of the low SES students had GPA's of at least 2.5. Overall, 47 percent of the low SES students met the Proposition 16 course requirements and achieved a GPA of at least 2.5 (76.2% x 61.5% =46.8%); compared to the 24 percent who met the upper end of the Proposition 16 college admission test requirements (SAT of 900/ACT of 21).
Figure 4 - Percentage of 1992 college-bound high school seniors meeting Proposition 16 eligibility requirements by social-economic status
Figure 5 - Percentage of 1992 college-bound high school seniors scoring at or above SAT scores of 700 and 900 (ACT Score of 17 and 21 respectively) by socio- economic status
Eligibility by participation in high school athletics
For purposes of this analysis, 1992 college-bound high school seniors
were classified into one of three groups depending on the level of
participation in high school sports.
These groups were:
- Athletes (varsity level)
- Other athletes
- Non-athletes
The first group (athletes) included individuals who reported
participation in varsity level high school sports during their
sophomore and senior years or who reported participation in varsity
sports during their senior year and also were named captain or most
valuable player. The second group (other athletes) included
individuals who did not meet the criteria for group 1, but who did
report participation in high school junior varsity or varsity
athletics. Group 3 (non-athletes) included individuals who did not
report participation in high school junior varsity or varsity
athletics.
In comparing these three groups, significant differences were not
found between the groups in regard to overall eligibility, proportion
scoring above 700 SAT (17 ACT), proportion scoring above 900 SAT (21
ACT), proportion earning above a GPA of 2.0 or higher, or proportion
earning a GPA of 2.5 or higher.
Table 1. - Percentage of 1992 college-bound high school seniors meeting the
NCAA Proposition 48 and Proposition 16 eligibility requirements,
by gender, race/ethnicity, socio-economic status, and level of
participation in high school athletics.
***Part 1 of Table 1***
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Proposition
Test Scores 48
-------------- ---------------------------------
Earned
ACT ACT 11 Or For Those Who Earned
>=17 >=21 More 11 Or More Core Credits
SAT SAT Core GPA GPA
>=700 >=900 Credits >=2.0 >=2.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Total % 87.5% 56.8% 96.1% 95.3% 82.5%
(standard error) (0.98) (1.56) (0.46) (0.88) (1.10)
(unwtd N) (6724) (6724) (6714) (6418) (6418)
Gender
Male 88.2 59.1 95.7 92.8 77.1
(1.77) (2.61) (0.64) (1.84) (2.11)
(3104) (3104) (3097) (2948) (2948)
Female 86.9 54.8 96.5 97.4 87.2
(0.96) (1.68) (0.51) (0.37) (0.92)
(3620) (3620) (3617) (3470) (3470)
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 88.5 61.8 96.4 99.4 89.8
(1.90) (4.29) (1.27) (0.54) (1.78)
(587) (587) (587) (563) (563)
Hispanic 71.1 34.6 96.8 95.5 80.0
(4.27) (4.61) (1.04) (1.30) (3.94)
(467) (467) (467) (452) (452)
Black 67.4 29.4 95.9 89.9 64.0
(3.98) (4.76) (1.30) (1.97) (3.46)
(415) (415) (415) (394) (394)
White 91.1 61.3 96.1 95.6 84.3
(1.09) (1.80) (0.55) (1.09) (1.29)
(5209) (5209) (5199) (4967) (4967)
Amer. Indian/ 53.3 19.6 95.8 96.5 58.8
Alaskan (10.08) (6.33) (3.87) (3.55) (12.56)
Native (32) (32) (32) (30) (30)
Socio-Economic Status
Low 62.8 24.0 93.4 90.6 74.3
(3.70) (2.21) (1.35) (3.12) (3.33)
(590) (590) (590) (552) (552)
Medium 86.0 48.4 95.7 94.8 80.2
(1.00) (1.92) (0.63) (0.72) (1.41)
(2842) (2842) (2842) (2709) (2709)
High 94.1 72.2 97.1 96.8 86.7
(1.73) (2.16) (0.57) (1.73) (1.92)
(3264) (3264) (3254) (3131) (3131)
Level of High School Athletic Participation
Varsity Athletes 86.8 58.9 96.5 91.8 80.8
(2.42) (2.74) (0.63) (2.56) (2.62)
(2363) (2363) (2359) (2254) (2254)
Other Athletes 87.9 55.6 96.7 96.8 82.0
(1.44) (2.91) (0.54) (0.48) (1.72)
(1959) (1959) (1957) (1877) (1877)
Non-Athletes 87.7 56.7 95.7 96.5 84.6
(1.25) (2.06) (0.67) (0.67) (1.22)
(1464) (1464) (1464) (1395) (1395)
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***Part 2 of Table 1***
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Proposition
16
--------------------------------------------------
Earned 13 For Those Who Earned Sliding Scale
Or More 13 Or More Core Credits of GPA &
Core GPA GPA SAT/ACT2
Credits1 >=2.0 >=2.5
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Total % 74.7% 94.7% 82.3% 79.9%
(standard error) (1.39) (0.71) (1.09) (1.13)
(unwtd N) (6714) (4928) (4928) (6714)
Gender
Male 72.7 92.4 77.3 78.5
(2.24) (1.28) (1.97) (1.98)
(3097) (2229) (2229) (3097)
Female 76.3 96.5 86.4 81.1
(1.44) (0.73) (1.14) (1.15)
(3617) (2699) (2699) (3617)
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 73.7 99.3 93.2 86.6
(3.15) (0.47) (1.94) (2.11)
(587) (443) (443) (587)
Hispanic 75.4 94.8 76.0 64.2
(3.55) (1.51) (5.47) (4.40)
(467) (339) (339) (467)
Black 72.5 83.8 60.8 53.3
(4.46) (3.37) (4.44) (3.82)
(415) (289) (289) (415)
White 75.0 95.5 84.4 83.7
(1.62) (0.77) (1.17) (1.25)
(5199) (3831) (3831) (5199)
Amer. Indian/ 57.8 Low-N Low-N 40.1
Alaskan (10.80) (Low-N) (Low-N) (8.85)
Native (32) (19) (19) (32)
Socio-Economic Status
Low 61.5 95.2 76.2 54.6
(3.42) (1.35) (3.67) (3.55)
(590) (371) (371) (590)
Medium 73.2 92.5 78.6 76.5
(1.65) (1.28) (1.72) (1.40)
(2842) (2034) (2034) (2842)
High 79.0 96.7 87.0 88.8
(2.11) (0.80) (1.39) (1.87)
(3254) (2506) (2506) (3254)
Level of High School Athletic Participation
Varsity Athletes 74.4 93.7 82.3 78.8
(2.63) (1.45) (1.68) (2.55)
(2359) (1765) (1765) (2359)
Other Athletes 75.6 94.2 79.7 79.7
(2.06) (1.29) (2.23) (1.83)
(1957) (1423) (1423) (1957)
Non-Athletes 71.8 96.3 83.4 81.1
(2.03) (0.90) (1.75) (1.45)
(1464) (1058) (1058) (1464)
---------------------------------------------------------------
***Part 3 of Table 1***
--------------------------------------------
Athletic
Eligibility
--------------------------
Meets
Prop 16
Meets Prop `96'
48 Rqmnts Rqmnts
--------------------------------------------
Total % 83.2% 64.7%
(standard error) (1.09) (1.49)
(unwtd N) (6714) (6714)
Gender
Male 82.5 62.6
(1.91) (2.41)
(3097) (3097)
Female 83.7 66.4
(1.07) (1.63)
(3617) (3617)
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 86.6 67.7
(2.15) (3.26)
(587) (587)
Hispanic 67.5 54.1
(4.21) (4.63)
(467) (467)
Black 64.2 46.4
(4.19) (4.45)
(415) (415)
White 86.4 67.4
(1.23) (1.70)
(5199) (5199)
Amer. Indian/ 49.5 26.7
Alaskan (9.77) (7.36)
Native (32) (32)
Socio-Economic Status
Low 58.8 42.3
(3.54) (3.56)
(590) (590)
Medium 80.8 60.9
(1.25) (1.87)
(2842) (2842)
High 90.6 73.4
(1.80) (2.24)
(3254) (3254)
Level of High School Athletic Participation
Varsity Athletes 82.1 64.8
(2.49) (2.77)
(2359) (2359)
Other Athletes 84.3 64.7
(1.58) (2.48)
(1957) (1957)
Non-Athletes 83.1 62.5
(1.43) (2.15)
(1464) (1464)
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1 Met Proposition 16 August 1996 Core Credit requirements.
2 Does not factor in Core Course requirements.
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education
Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988:
Second Follow-up Student Survey and High School Transcripts.
Conclusions
Lower proportions of minority (blacks and Hispanics) and low SES
college-bound high school seniors met the eligibility requirements for
freshman varsity athletics participation under Proposition 48 and the
proportions drop further under Proposition 16. For any high school
student athlete who aspires to participate in Division I college
athletics, the planning process must begin early in the student's high
school career. Student athletes, guidance counselors, parents, and
coaches must all be aware of the NCAA eligibility requirements. To
meet these requirements, each athlete must undertake and successfully
complete the 13 core course requirements during the course of the
typical four-year high school career. In addition, like all
college-bound seniors, high school athletes need to understand the
roles that GPA and scores on college admissions tests play in college
admission (and varsity sports eligibility) decisions.
Endnotes
1. Using the following eligibility index (as defined by Sections 14.3.1.1 and 14.3.1.1.1 of the 1995/96 NCAA Manual), freshmen may establish eligibility for participation in Division I collegiate athletics by meeting or exceeding one of the combinations of GPA and entrance exam scores specified below.
Core GPA* SAT or ACT** 2.500 or above 700 17 2.475 710 18 2.450 720 18 2.425 730 18 2.400 740 18 2.375 750 18 2.350 760 19 2.325 770 19 2.300 780 19 2.275 790 19 2.250 800 19 2.225 810 20 2.200 820 20 2.175 830 20 2.150 840 20 2.125 850 20 2.100 860 21 2.075 870 21 2.050 880 21 2.025 890 21 2.000 900 21
* GPA is based on a minimum grade-point average in a successfully
completed core curriculum that includes at least 13 academic courses
in the following areas:
- English: 4 years
- Mathematics: 2 years [one year of algebra and one year of geometry (or one year of a higher-level mathematics course for which geometry is a prerequisite)]
- Natural or physical science: 2 years [including at least one laboratory course, if offered by school]
- Additional courses in English, mathematics, or natural or physical science: 2 years
- Social science: 2 years
- Additional academic courses: 1 year [in any of the above areas or foreign language, computer science, philosophy, or nondoctrinal religion (e.g., comparative religion) courses]
** SAT -- Scholastic Aptitude Test; ACT -- American College Testing
Program
2. College-bound--The NELS:88 student sample used for this study
included all graduating high school seniors who met the following
criteria: (1) graduated by June of 1992; (2) transcripts were
collected as part of the second follow-up data collection activities;
(3) the transcript included records of courses taken in 9th, 10th,
11th, and 12th grades; (4) the transcript reported at least 16
credits; (5) the results of SAT or ACT tests were included on the
transcript, and (6) the student indicated that he/she had applied to
one or more postsecondary schools (variable F2S60A). It should be
pointed out that not all of these college-bound students have applied
to Division I colleges; some have applied to Division II and two-year
colleges.
3. The SAT test has been recentered by the Educational Testing
Service for tests taken in April 1995 and thereafter. Because of this
recentering, the NCAA has approved a recentered score of 820 to be
equivalent to a score of 700 on previous tests. For this publication,
an SAT score of 700 will be used as the cut-off because the tests were
administered prior to 1993.
4. The actual NCAA application process involves (1) the high school
attended by the high school student athlete, (2) the student athlete,
and (3) the NCAA Clearinghouse. The clearinghouse serves as the
gatekeeper in the process by evaluating information provided by the
high school and the student-athlete applicant. This group determines
who is a qualifier, partial qualifier, or nonqualifier (see 1995-96
NCAA Manual, Section 14.02.9). Information provided by the
applicant's high school includes descriptions of the courses offered
by the school. The NCAA Clearinghouse evaluates these course listings
and makes a determination as to which can be used to satisfy the 13
core courses required by Proposition 16. The student athlete
applicant must also fill out an application that states the
applicant's intention to participate in varsity sports at the
collegiate level. The NCAA Clearinghouse keeps applicants
advised as to their status on meeting the freshman eligibility
requirements. In addition, applicants can use the NCAA automated
phone number by entering their personal ID number to receive a message
as to their status. For those students who do not meet the core
course or GPA requirements at the end of eight semesters in high
school, the student athlete loses one year of eligibility at Division
I schools. Student athletes are allowed to take summer courses during
their freshman, sophomore, and junior years and still be in the eight
semester limit. They are also allowed to take the SAT or ACT
tests more than once with the highest scores on the separate tests
being usedto determine athletic eligibility.
5. Definitions for Socio-Economic Status (SES) and other variables
are included in the technical appendix.
Appendix: Technical notes for NELS:88
The NELS:88 Baseline comprised a national probability sample of all
regular public and private 8th-grade schools in the 50 states and the
District of Columbia in the 1987-88 school year. During the base year
data collection, students, parents, teachers, and school
administrators were selected to participate in the survey. A total of
24,599 8th-grade students participated in the base-year survey (93
percent response rate).
The NELS:88 first follow-up survey was conducted during the spring of
1990. Students, dropouts, teachers, and school administrators
participated in the follow-up, with a successful data collection
effort for 17,424 individuals in the student survey (approximately 93
percent response rate). Prior to data collection, the sample was
freshened with 10th-grade students who did not have the opportunity
(e.g., out of country) to be in the 8th- grade sample during
the base-year.
During second follow-up data collection activities (1992), data were
collected from students, dropouts, parents, teachers, school
administrators, and extant high school transcripts. Again, as was
done in the first follow-up, the sample was freshened. In addition,
transcripts were collected from 13,173 respondents who had graduated
by the fall of 1992. For the analysis presented in this report, 6724
respondents were classified as college-bound with complete transcript
data (used for this report), 242 were classified as college-bound with
missing transcript data (not used in this report), 3742 were
classified as not college-bound high school graduates, and 2277 were
classified as unknown (missing data). The analytical sample used in
this report is considered to be representative of high school seniors
who have applied to one or more colleges (e.g., Division I, Division
II, or two-year) and have taken the SAT/ACT tests.
Characteristics of the sample used for this report
The student sample used for this study included all graduating seniors
who met the following criteria: (1) graduated by end of June 1992;
(2) transcripts were collected as part of the second follow-up data
collection activities; (3) the transcript included records of courses
taken in 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grades; (4) the transcript reported
at least 16 credits, (5) the results of SAT or ACT tests were included
on the transcript, and (6) the student indicated that he/she had
applied to one or more postsecondary schools (variable F2S60A). For
purposes of this analysis, the second follow-up transcript weight was
used.
Characteristics of retained and excluded students
Table 2 presents the characteristics of 1992 high school graduates who
were (1) retained college-bound students (column labeled "Complete
cases"); (2) excluded college-bound students who had incomplete
transcript data (column labeled "Not complete cases"); (3) excluded
non-college bound students who did not have immediate plans for
postsecondary education (column labeled "Not college-bound"), and (4)
excluded respondents who had missing data (column labeled "Unknown").
In comparing college-bound students who were included in the study
(column 5) vs. all college-bound students (column 2), table 2
indicates that there does not seem to be any systematic bias in that
the proportion of the subgroups having complete data is similar for
both groups (see columns 2 and 5) by gender, race/ethnicity, and by
SES. It should also be pointed out that the groups labeled "Not
college-bound" and "Unknown" are very similar when compared by SES
status.
Table 2. Characteristics of NELS:88 students who graduated by the summer of 1992 and participated in transcript study.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1992 High school graduates College-bound
--------------------------------------------- -----------------
Total College- Not college- Unknown*** Complete Not
bound* bound** cases cases complete
cases
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# of Cases
(unwted) 12985 6966 3742 2277 6724 242
Weighted Percents
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Gender
Male 50.0 46.4 55.8 50.0 46.1 53.3
Female 50.0 53.6 44.2 50.0 53.9 46.7
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 4.4 4.9 3.1 5.3 5.0 4.5
Hispanic 9.1 6.51 2.1 11.3 6.6 4.2
Black 11.1 8.1 13.2 15.9 8.1 9.7
White 74.5 79.9 70.6 66.2 79.9 79.7
Socio-Economic Status
Low 17.3 9.02 5.6 25.8 9.0 10.5
Middle 51.9 46.9 58.0 55.5 46.7 51.9
High 30.8 44.1 16.4 18.7 44.3 37.6
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
*College-bound: Includes following two groups.
Complete cases: Students classified into this category had graduated by
June 1992 and participated in the transcript study. In
addition, the transcript included complete SAT/ACT scores,
course-work at 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th grades, and at
least 16 total credits. The student also indicated via
variable F2S60A that he/she had applied to one or more
postsecondary schools.
Not complete cases: Two criteria needed to be satisfied for a student to be
classified as missing. First, the student had graduated
by June 1992, indicated that he/she had applied to one or
more postsecondary schools, participated in the transcript
study, and had taken the SAT/ACT tests. Second, the
transcript included incomplete SAT/ACT scores or missing
course data by year or the total credits summed to less
than 16.
**Not college-bound: Same definition as college-bound except the student did
not indicate that he/she applied to any colleges.
***Unknown: Includes those 1992 high school graduates for whom a determination of college-bound status could not be ascertained with the variables that were used in this analysis (e.g., missing response to `applied to one or more postsecondary schools' or indicated one or more schools applied to, but missing SAT/ACT test scores).
Sampling errors
The data were weighted using the second follow-up transcript weight
(F2TRSCWT) to reflect the sampling rates (probability of selection)
and adjustments for unit nonresponse. The complex sample design was
taken into account when a Taylor series approximation procedure was
used to compute the standard errors in this report. The standard
error is a measure of the variability of a sample estimate due to
sampling. It indicates, for a given sample size, how much variance
there is in the population of possible estimates of a parameter.
If all possible samples were selected under similar conditions,
intervals of 1.96 standard errors below to 1.96 standard errors above
a particular statistic would include the true population parameter
being estimated for about 95 percent of these samples (i.e., 95
percent confidence interval). Comparisons noted in this report are
significant at the 0.05 level and were determined using Bonferroni
adjusted t-tests.
Standard errors for all of the estimates are presented in table 1.
These standard errors can be used to produce confidence intervals.
For example, an estimated 64.7 percent of college-bound high school
graduates met the Proposition 16 requirements (see table 1). This
figure has an estimated standard error of 1.49 percent. Therefore,
the estimated 95 percent confidence interval for this statistic is
approximately 61.7 percent to 67.7 percent.
Definitions of criteria used
(1) NCAA sliding eligibility scale - In creating this variable, the
following components were used:
- Core credits - Courses from the student high school transcript
were summed if the courses were (1) taken for a grade and (2)
classified using the Secondary School Taxonomy (SST) as being in
English, mathematics, science, social studies, foreign language,
or comparative religion. The sum of these courses expressed in
Carnegie units had to be greater than or equal to 13, and meet
the course taking pattern specified in endnote 1.
NOTE: One Carnegie unit is equivalent to a one-hour class that meets 5 days a week for one school year.
- GPA - The grade point averages were calculated from the core courses with the highest grades, within each of the defined course taken pattern categories (e.g., mathematics), until the unit criteria was met or exceeded.
--As were worth 4 points.
--Bs were worth 3 points.
--Cs were worth 2 points.
--Ds were worth 1 point .
--Fs were not used in the calculation of GPA or in the summing of Carnegieunits.
No additional points were given for pluses "+" or minuses "-".
After the 13 Carnegie credits had been met, the remaining highest
courses in the "Another additional" category were used if they raised
the GPA higher.
(GPA = 2.5 AND (ACT = 17 OR SAT =700)) OR
((2.475 GPA 2.5) AND (ACT = 18 OR SAT = 710)) OR
((2.450 GPA 2.475) AND (ACT = 18 OR SAT = 720)) OR
((2.425 GPA 2.450) AND (ACT = 18 OR SAT = 730)) OR
((2.400 GPA 2.425) AND (ACT = 18 OR SAT = 740)) OR
((2.375 GPA 2.400) AND (ACT = 18 OR SAT = 750)) OR
((2.350 GPA 2.375) AND (ACT = 19 OR SAT = 760)) OR
((2.325 GPA 2.350) AND (ACT = 19 OR SAT = 770)) OR
((2.300 GPA 2.325) AND (ACT = 19 OR SAT = 780)) OR
((2.275 GPA 2.300) AND (ACT = 19 OR SAT = 790)) OR
((2.250 GPA 2.275) AND (ACT = 19 OR SAT = 800)) OR
((2.225 GPA 2.250) AND (ACT = 20 OR SAT = 810)) OR
((2.200 GPA 2.225) AND (ACT = 20 OR SAT = 820)) OR
((2.175 GPA 2.200) AND (ACT = 20 OR SAT = 830)) OR
((2.150 GPA 2.175) AND (ACT = 20 OR SAT = 840)) OR
((2.125 GPA 2.150) AND (ACT = 20 OR SAT = 850)) OR
((2.100 GPA 2.125) AND (ACT = 21 OR SAT = 860)) OR
((2.075 GPA 2.100) AND (ACT = 21 OR SAT = 870)) OR
((2.050 GPA 2.075) AND (ACT = 21 OR SAT = 880)) OR
((2.025 GPA 2.050) AND (ACT = 21 OR SAT = 890)) OR
((2.000 GPA 2.025) AND (ACT = 21 OR SAT = 900))
(2) Participation in high school athletics--For purposes of this
analysis, 1992 college-bound high school seniors were classified into
one of three groups depending on the level of participation in high
school sports. The first group (varsity athletes) included
individuals who reported participation in varsity level sports during
their sophomore and senior years or who reported participation in
varsity sports during their senior year and also were named captain or
most valuable player. The second group (other athletes) included
individuals who did not meet the criteria for group 1, but who did
report participation in high school junior varsity or varsity
athletics. Group 3 (non-athletes) included individuals who did not
report participation in high school athletics at the junior varsity or
varsity level. The following variables were used to create the
athletic participation variable.
F1S8H='NAMED MOST VALUABLE PLAYER ON SPORT TEAM'
F1S41AA='PLAYED BASEBALL/SOFTBALL AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AB='PLAYED BASKETBALL AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AC='PLAYED FOOTBALL AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AD='PLAYED SOCCER AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AE='PARTICIPATED ON SWIM TEAM AT SCHOOL'
F1S41AF='PLAYED OTHER TEAM SPORT'
F1S41AG='PLAYED AN INDIVIDUAL SPORT'
F2S29G='NAMED MOST VALUABLE PLAYER ON SPORT TEAM'
F2S30AA='PARTICIPATED ON A TEAM SPORT AT SCHOOL'
F2S30AB='PARTICIPATED IN INDIVIDUAL SPORT AT SCHOOL'
Other variables used in analysis
Gender of student (F2SEX)--F2SEX is based on the first follow-up
(F1SEX) composite and is augmented by second follow-up new student
supplement information (in F2N2) if appropriate or, if still missing,
by imputation from students' first names.
Student's race/ethnicity (F2RACE1)--F2RACE is based on F1RACE (first
follow-up race/ethnicity variable) and is supplemented when
appropriate with second follow-up new student supplement data (in
F2N17). If F2RACE1 was still missing, available information from the
contractor's Survey Management System was used to fill in missing
values.
Socio-economic status of student's family (F2SES1Q)--Indicates the
quartile into which F2SES1 falls (level 1 = bottom 25 percent; level 2
= middle two quartiles; and level 3 = high 25 percent). F2SES1 was
constructed using base
year parent questionnaire data, when available. The following parent
data were used: Father's education level, mother's education level,
father's occupation, mother's occupation, and family income (data
coming from BYP30, BYP31, BYP34B, BYP37B, and BYP80). See page H-12
in NELS:88 Second Follow-up User's Manual for a detailed description
of procedures used to create the SES variable.
Acknowledgments
The authors wish to express their gratitude to the various reviewers
of this report. The following individuals served as the principal
reviewers, and provided many valuable criticisms and helpful
suggestions: Robert Burton and Susan Ahmed of the Statistical
Standards and Methodology division, NCES; Larry Ogle of the
Educational Assessment Division; Bill Sonneburg of the Data
Development Division; Marco Clark, Head of the Counseling Department,
DeMatha High School, Hyattsville, Maryland; and Don Rock, Educational
Testing Service. The NCAA Office of Legislative Services reviewed
this report for accuracy of NCES's interpretation of the NCAA
guidelines.
