• Introduction
• Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• Higher Education Enrollment
• High School Graduates
• Earned Degrees Conferred
• Expenditures of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools
• Current-Fund Expenditures of Institutions of Higher Education

Projections of Education Statistics to 2010 is the 29th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions and extensions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2009 and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. For the nation, the report contains data on enrollment, teachers, graduates, and expenditures for the past 14 years and projections to the year 2010. In addition, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2010 at the state level. These projections were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology.

The NCES projections presented in this report reflect revisions to the intercensal estimates based on the unadjusted 1990 census data.* The U.S. Census Bureau's population projections also reflect the incorporation of the 1999 estimates and latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate.

As detailed in the full report's technical appendixes, assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. Because projections of time series depend on the validity of many assumptions, these projections are uncertain and usually differ from the final reported data. Therefore, this report includes three alternative projections for most of the statistical series. These alternative projections are based on different assumptions about growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes.

The report contains seven chapters, each consisting of a summary essay followed by a number of figures and tables:

This article presents key statistics from each chapter.

Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase 1 percent from 1998 to 2010. The primary reason for the continuing increase is the rising number of annual births between 1977 and 1990-sometimes referred to as the baby boom echo. After a period of stability and small declines from 1991 to 1997, the number of births has begun rising again.

Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase from 52.5 million in 1998 to 53.5 million in 2005 (table A), an increase of 2 percent. Then total enrollment is projected to decrease by 1 percent (to 53.0 million) by 2010, resulting in an overall increase of 1 percent from 1998.

Enrollment in grades K-8 has increased from 34.0 million in 1990 to a projected 38.1 million in 2000, an increase of 12 percent. Enrollment in grades K-8 is projected to increase slightly to 38.2 million in 2001, and then decrease slowly through 2008 to 37.3 million. Thereafter, elementary enrollment is expected to begin increasing again, rising to 37.5 million by 2010.

Enrollment in grades 9-12 has risen from 12.5 million in 1990 to a projected 14.9 million in 2000, an increase of 19 percent. In the year 2005, enrollment in grades 9-12 is projected to reach an all-time record of 15.9 million, surpassing the previous high of 15.7 million in 1976. Thereafter, enrollment in grades 9-12 is projected to rise to 16.0 million in 2006, before decreasing slightly to 15.5 million by 2010, resulting in an increase of 4 percent from 2000.

While public elementary and secondary school enrollment (kindergarten through grade 12) is expected to increase by 0.5 percent at the national level between 1999 and the year 2010, changes in enrollment will vary by region and by state (figure A).

Regionally, public elementary and secondary school enrollment will increase moderately in the West, where total enrollment is expected to rise 7 percent between 1999 and 2010. Enrollment in the South is projected to increase by 1 percent. Enrollment is expected to decrease by 4 percent in the Northeast and by 3 percent in the Midwest.

At the state level, changes in public school enrollment are projected to range from increases of 10 percent or more in some states to decreases in other states between 1999 and 2010. The largest increases are expected in Alaska (12 percent), Arizona (12 percent), Hawaii (12 percent), Idaho (16 percent), Nevada (15 percent), and New Mexico (14 percent).

Overall enrollment in institutions of higher education is expected to rise between 1998 and the year 2010. Changes in age-specific enrollment rates and college-age populations will affect enrollment levels over this period. The most important factor in the projected rise of college enrollment is the projected increase of 18 percent in the traditional college-age population of 18- to 24-year-olds from 1998 to 2010.

Under the middle alternative, total higher education enrollment is projected to increase from an estimated 14.6 million in 1998 to 17.5 million by the year 2010 (figure B), an increase of 20 percent. A 17 percent increase is projected under the low alternative, and a 24 percent increase is projected under the high alternative. The remainder of this discussion focuses on higher education enrollment projections under the middle alternative.

As a share of total college enrollment, women were 57 percent of all college students in 1998 compared with 52 percent in 1985. Women are expected to increase their share to 58 percent of college enrollment in the year 2010.

Table A. - Enrollment in grades K-8 and 9-12 elementary and secondary schools, by control of institution, with projections: Fall 1985 to fall 2010.

Figure A. - Percent change in grades K-12 enrollment in public schools, by state: Fall 1999 to fall 2010

Figure B. - Enrollment in institutions of higher education, with alternative projections: Fall 1985 to fall 2010

The enrollment of students who are 18 to 24 years old increased from 7.9 million in 1990 to an estimated 8.4 million in 1998, an increase of 7 percent. However, this number is expected to increase to 10.5 million by the year 2010, an increase of 25 percent from 1998. As a result, the proportion of students who are 18 to 24 years old, which remained at 57 percent in 1990 and 1998, is projected to be 60 percent by the year 2010.

The enrollment of students who are 25 years and over increased from 5.8 million in 1990 to an estimated 6.1 million in 1998, an increase of 5 percent. This number is projected to be 6.8 million in 2010, an increase of 11 percent from 1998. The proportion of students 25 years old and over remained at 42 percent in 1990 and 1998. It is projected to be 39 percent by the year 2010.

High school graduates from public and private high schools are projected to increase from 2.7 million in 1997-98 to 3.1 million by 2009-10, an increase of 14 percent. This significant increase reflects the projected rise in the 18-year-old population.

Between 1998-99 and 2009-10, the number of graduates from public high schools is projected to increase 12 percent, but growth will vary by region. In the West, the number of public high school graduates is expected to rise by 20 percent over this period. In the Northeast, it is projected to grow by 11 percent. The South and Midwest are expected to have increases of 13 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

Increases in the number of public high school graduates are projected for most states between 1998-99 and 2009-10. Sizable increases are expected in Arizona (48 percent), Florida (28 percent), Nevada (79 percent), and North Carolina (31 percent).

The total number of earned degrees conferred by institutions of higher education increased substantially between 1984-85 and 1997-98, largely because of the historical growth in enrollment of and degrees earned by women. Between 1984-85 and 1997-98, the number of degrees awarded to women rose at all levels. In 1997-98, women earned the majority of associate's, bachelor's, and master's degrees, and more than two-fifths of doctor's and first-professional degrees.

From 1997-98 to 2009-10, increases in the total number of earned degrees are expected to continue. In particular, the total number of degrees at the bachelor's level is projected to increase from 1,175,000 in 1997-98 to 1,324,000 by 2009-10, an increase of 13 percent. Over the same period, the number of degrees awarded to women is projected to rise at all levels. While degrees awarded to men are projected to increase or remain steady at the associate's, bachelor's, and doctor's levels over this period, they will decrease at the master's and first-professional levels.

Between 1998 and 2010, the number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to rise, primarily due to the increase in school enrollment during this period. Increases are expected in the numbers of both elementary and secondary teachers. The number of secondary teachers will increase at a faster rate than the number of elementary teachers. The numbers of both public and private school teachers are projected to grow. Under the middle alternative, the total number of elementary and secondary teachers is expected to increase from 3.22 million in 1998 to 3.35 million by the year 2010, an increase of 4 percent. A 2 percent increase is projected under the low alternative, and a 7 percent increase is projected under the high alternative.

Current expenditures and teacher salaries in public elementary and secondary schools are expected to increase in constant dollars.

Under the middle alternative, current expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools are forecast to increase 38 percent in constant dollars, from $290.4 billion in 1997-98 to $401.9 billion in 2009-10 (figure C). Under the low alternative, current expenditures are projected to increase by 29 percent; under the high alternative, current expenditures are projected to increase by 50 percent.

Under the middle alternative, current expenditures per pupil in average daily attendance are forecast to increase 36 percent in constant dollars, from $6,777 in 1997-98 to $9,204 in 2009-10 (figure D). Under the low alternative, current expenditures per pupil are projected to increase 26 percent; under the high alternative, current expenditures per pupil are projected to increase 47 percent.

Figure C. - Current expenditures of public schools (in constant 1998-99 dollars), with alternative projections: 1984-85 to 2009-10

Figure D. - Current expenditures per pupil in average daily attendance in public schools (in constant 1998-99 dollars), with alternative projections: 1984-85 to 2009-10

Teacher salaries are projected to increase 7 percent in constant dollars between 1998-99 and 2009-10 under the middle alternative. A 4 percent increase is projected under the low alternative, and an 11 percent increase is projected under the high alternative.

From 1995-96 to 2009-10, current-fund expenditures are projected to increase in constant dollars in both public and private institutions of higher education. Under the middle alternative, total current-fund expenditures are projected to increase 50 percent in constant dollars. A 52 percent increase is projected for public institutions under the middle alternative, and a 45 percent increase is projected for private institutions.