• Introduction
• National Highlights
• State-Level Highlights

Projections of Education Statistics to 2009 is the 28th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2008 and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. For the nation, the report contains data on enrollment, teachers, graduates, and expenditures for the past 14 years and projections to the year 2009.

In addition, the report includes projections for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Specifically, it contains state-level data on projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2009. Similar methodologies were used to obtain a uniform set of projections for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. These projections were further adjusted to agree with the national projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates appearing in this report. The projections were produced to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state?level projections developed with a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states.

The projections presented in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 census. The revised population projections developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census also reflect the incorporation of the 1997 estimates and latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate.

As detailed in the full report's technical appendixes and outlined in table A, assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. Because projections of time series depend on the validity of many assumptions, these projections are uncertain and usually differ from the final reported data. Therefore, this report includes three alternative projections for most of the statistical series. These alternative projections are based on different assumptions about growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes. The alternatives are not statistical confidence limits, but instead represent judgments made by the authors as to reasonable upper and lower bounds. Alternative projections are presented for higher education enrollment, classroom teachers, and expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education.

Table A.—Summary of forecast assumptions to 2009

Figure A shows the amount of change in selected education statistics for the nation, both historical and projected. The remainder of the highlights consist of projected statistics.

Figure A.—Percent change in selected education statistics: 1984 to 1997 and 1997 to 2009

Over the projection period, growth in the school?age and traditional college?age populations is expected to cause increases in enrollments. Specifically, the 5? to 17?year-old population is projected to increase from 50.4 million in 1997 to 52.6 million in 2009, an increase of 4 percent. The 18? to 24?year?old population is expected to increase from 25.1 million in 1997 to 29.9 million in 2009, an increase of 19 percent.

Elementary and secondary enrollment. Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase from 52.2 million in 1997 to 54.5 million in 2006. Then total enrollment is projected to remain steady through the year 2009, resulting in an increase of 4 percent from 1997.

Higher education enrollment. Higher education enrollment is projected to increase from an estimated 14.4 million in 1997 to 16.3 million by the year 2009, an increase of 14 percent. A 12 percent increase is projected under the low alternative, and a 16 percent increase is projected under the high alternative.

Number of high school graduates. High school graduates from public and private high schools are projected to increase from 2.6 million in 1996-97 to 3.2 million by 2008-09, an increase of 23 percent. This significant increase reflects the projected rise in the 18?year?old population.

Number of bachelor's degrees. The number of bachelor's degrees is expected to increase from 1,160,000 in 1996-97 to 1,257,000 by 2008-09, an increase of 8 percent.

The number of classroom teachers is projected to increase over the projection period. Under the middle alternative, the number of classroom teachers is expected to increase from 3.04 million in 1997 to 3.17 million by the year 2009, an increase of 4 percent. A 2 percent increase is projected under the low alternative, and a 7 percent increase is projected under the high alternative.

Between 1995-96 and 2008-09, current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools are projected to increase in constant dollars, as are current funds expenditures for public and private institutions of higher education.

Current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools. Under the middle alternative, a 25 percent increase in current expenditures for public elementary and secondary schools is projected for the period from 1995-96 to 2008-09. Under the low alternative, current expenditures are projected to increase by 17 percent; under the high alternative, current expenditures are projected to increase by 32 percent.

Current expenditures per pupil in public elementary and secondary schools. Under the middle alternative, current expenditures per pupil in average daily attendance are forecast to increase 16 percent in constant dollars from 1995-96 to 2008-09. Under the low alternative, current expenditures per pupil are projected to increase 9 percent; under the high alternative, current expenditures per pupil are projected to increase 23 percent.

Teacher salaries in public elementary and secondary schools. Under the middle alternative, teacher salaries are projected to increase 1 percent in constant dollars between 1996-97 and 2008-09. A 2 percent decline is projected under the low alternative, and a 3 percent increase is projected under the high alternative.

Current funds expenditures for institutions of higher edu-cation. Total current funds expenditures for institutions of higher education are projected to increase 36 percent in constant dollars under the middle alternative from 1995-96 to 2008-09. Total current funds expenditures are projected to increase at almost the same rate in public institutions and private institutions. A 36 percent increase is projected for public institutions, and a 35 percent increase is projected for private institutions.

While public elementary and secondary school enrollment (kindergarten through grade 12) is expected to increase by 4 percent at the national level between 1997 and the year 2009, changes in enrollment will vary by region and by state (figure B).

Regionally, enrollment will increase most rapidly in the West, where total enrollment is expected to rise 11 percent. Enrollment in the South is projected to increase by 5 per-cent. Enrollment is expected to decrease by 2 percent in the Northeast and by 1 percent in the Midwest.

At the state level, changes in public school enrollment are projected to range from increases of 20 percent or more in some states to decreases in other states between 1997 and 2009.The largest increases are expected in Arizona (21 percent), Idaho (20 percent), and Nevada (28 percent). The largest decreases are expected in the District of Columbia (10 percent), Maine (9 percent), North Dakota (8 percent), and West Virginia (7 percent).

Figure B.—Percent change in grades K-12 enrollment in public schools, by state: Fall 1997 to fall 2009

The number of public high school graduates is projected to increase 23 percent nationally between 1996-97 and 2008-09, but growth in the number of graduates will vary by region. In the West, the number is expected to rise by 35 percent. In the Northeast, it is projected to grow by 20 percent. The South and Midwest are expected to have increases of 24 percent and 13 percent, respectively, over the projection period.

Increases in the number of public high school graduates are projected for most states (figure C). Between 1996-97 and 2008-09, sizable increases are expected in Arizona (76 percent), California (41 percent), Florida (45 percent), North Carolina (48 percent), and Nevada (103 percent). Decreases are projected for the District of Columbia (5 percent), Louisiana (5 percent), North Dakota (8 percent), West Virginia (7 percent), and Wyoming (15 percent).

Figure C.—Percent change in number of public high school graduates, by state: 1996-97 to 2008-09