• Introduction
• Elementary and Secondary Enrollment
• Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions
• High School Graduates
• Earned Degrees Conferred
• Elementary and Secondary Teachers
• Expenditures of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools
• Expenditures of Public Degree-Granting Postsecondary Institutions
• References

Projections of Education Statistics to 2013 is the 32nd report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 and Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 (Gerald and Hussar 2001, 2002). It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2013.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2013 at the state level. These projections were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. The projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

Appendix A in the full report outlines the projection methodology, describing the models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from the company Global Insight, Inc., an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate.

Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes.

The key education statistics presented below are taken from the full report's Summary of Projections. In addition, a brief overview of the projections in the report is available in a pocket-sized booklet, Pocket Projections: Projections of Education Statistics to 2013 (Hussar and Gerald 2003).

Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment reached a record 54 million in fall 2001, representing a 19 percent increase since fall 1988. Between 2001 and 2013, a further increase of 5 percent is expected, with increases projected in both public and private schools. In the regions, increases are expected in the West, South, and Midwest, and a decrease is expected in the Northeast.

After increasing by about one-fifth between 1988 and 2001, enrollments in both public and private schools are expected to increase at slower rates between 2001 and 2013. Small enrollment increases are expected at both the K–8 and 9–12 grade spans (figure A).

Total enrollment. Total elementary and secondary enrollment

• increased 19 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 5 percent between 2001 and 2013.

• increased 19 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 5 percent between 2001 and 2013.

• increased 17 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 4 percent between 2001 and 2013.

• increased 19 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 4 percent between 2001 and 2013.

• increased 18 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 7 percent between 2001 and 2013.

Between 2001 and 2013, enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools is expected to increase in 30 states and decrease in 20 states, including the District of Columbia. In the regions, public school enrollment during the same period is expected to increase in the South, West, and Midwest and to decrease in the Northeast.

States. The expected 4 percent national increase in public school enrollment between 2001 and 2013 plays out differently for most states.

• Increases are projected for 30 states, with

  – the largest increases projected for Alaska (17 percent), Hawaii (16 percent), and California (16 percent);

  – increases between 10 and 15 percent projected for 7 states; and

  – increases between 0.4 and 9 percent projected for 20 states.

• No change is projected for Louisiana.
• Decreases are projected for 20 states, with

  – the largest decreases projected for West Virginia (6 percent) and Kentucky (6 percent);

  – decreases between 2.4 and 5 percent projected for 10 states;

  – decreases between 0.9 and 2 percent projected for 7 states; and

  – the smallest decrease projected for New Hampshire (0.2 percent).

• increase 13 percent in the West;
• increase 4 percent in the South;
• decrease 2 percent in the Northeast; and
• increase slightly in the Midwest.

Figure A. Elementary and secondary enrollment, total and by grade group: Selected years

Total enrollment in degree-granting institutions is expected to increase between 2000 and 2013. Degree-granting institutions provide study beyond secondary school and offer programs terminating in an associate's, baccalaureate, or higher degree. Differential growth is expected by student characteristics such as age, sex, and attendance status (part time or full time). Enrollment is expected to increase in both public and private degree-granting institutions.

Total enrollment in degree-granting institutions increased 17 percent from 1988 to 2000 (figure B). Between 2000 and 2013, total enrollment is projected to increase

• 19 percent, to 18.2 million, in the middle alternative projections;
• 15 percent, to 17.7 million, in the low alternative projections; and
• 23 percent, to 18.8 million, in the high alternative projections.

Enrollment by age of student. Between 2000 and 2013, in the middle alternative projections, enrollment is projected to increase

• 22 percent for students who are 18 to 24 years old; and
• 2 percent for students who are 35 years old and over.

• 15 percent for men; and
• 21 percent for women.

• 22 percent for full-time students; and
• 13 percent for part-time students.

• 18 percent for undergraduate students;
• 19 percent for graduate students; and
• 27 percent for first-professional students.

• 18 percent in public institutions; and
• 20 percent in private institutions.

Figure B. Total enrollment in degree-granting institutions, with middle alternative projections: Selected years

Between 2000–01 and 2012–13, the number of high school graduates is projected to increase nationally by 11 percent. Increases are expected in each region of the country, especially the West. Both public and private schools are expected to have increases in high school graduates.

Total graduates. The total number of high school graduates (figure C)

• increased 3 percent between 1987–88 and 2000–01; and
• is projected to increase 11 percent between 2000–01 and 2012–13.

• increased 3 percent between 1987–88 and 2000–01; and
• is projected to increase 11 percent between 2000–01 and 2012–13.

• increased 4 percent between 1987–88 and 2000–01; and
• is projected to increase 18 percent between 2000–01 and 2012–13.

Between 2000–01 and 2012–13, the number of public high school graduates is expected to increase in nearly half the states and in all four regions.

States. The expected 11 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 2000–01 and 2012–13 plays out differently in each state.

• Increases are projected for 25 states, with

  – the largest increases projected for Nevada (72 percent), Florida (30 percent), and Arizona (30 percent);

  – increases between 20 and 27 percent projected for 6 states;

  – increases between 4 and 19 percent projected for 14 states; and

  – the smallest increases projected for Utah (3 percent) and New York (2 percent).

• Decreases are projected for 26 states, with

  – the largest decreases projected for North Dakota (32 percent) and the District of Columbia (31 percent);

  – decreases between 11 and 26 percent projected for 8 states;

  – decreases between 2 and 11 percent projected for 14 states; and

  – the smallest decreases projected for Alaska (0.8 percent) and Idaho (0.2 percent).

• increase 18 percent in the West;
• increase 12 percent in the South;
• increase 8 percent in the Northeast; and
• increase 4 percent in the Midwest.

Figure C. Number of high school graduates, total and by control of school: Selected years

Historical growth in enrollment in degree-granting institutions, with particularly large increases among women, has led to a substantial increase in the number of earned degrees conferred. With the exception of doctor's degrees awarded to men, increases in the number of degrees conferred are expected to continue between 2000–01 and 2012–13.

Between 1987–88 and 2000–01, the number and proportion of degrees awarded to women rose at all levels. In 2000–01, women earned the majority of associate's, bachelor's, and master's degrees, 45 percent of doctor's degrees, and 46 percent of first-professional degrees. Between 2000–01 and 2012–13, continued increases are expected in the number of degrees awarded to women at all levels.

Associate's degrees. Between 2000–01 and 2012–13, in the middle alternative projections, the number of associate's degrees is projected to

• increase 21 percent overall;
• increase 7 percent for men; and
• increase 30 percent for women.

• increase 21 percent overall;
• increase 16 percent for men; and
• increase 25 percent for women.

• increase 19 percent overall;
• increase 17 percent for men; and
• increase 20 percent for women.

• increase 5 percent overall;
• decrease 0.1 percent for men; and
• increase 12 percent for women.

• increase 20 percent overall;
• increase 16 percent for men; and
• increase 26 percent for women.

Between 2001 and 2013, the number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to rise. The numbers of both public and private school teachers are projected to grow.

Total teachers. The total number of elementary and secondary teachers (figure D)

• increased 27 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 5 percent between 2001 and 2013 in the middle alternative projections.

• increased 29 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 5 percent between 2001 and 2013 in the middle alternative projections.

• increased 13 percent between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to increase 5 percent between 2001 and 2013 in the middle alternative projections.

The pupil/teacher ratio in elementary and secondary schools

• decreased from 17.0 to 15.9 between 1988 and 2001; and
• is projected to be 15.8 in 2013 in the middle alternative projections.

Figure D. Total number of elementary and secondary teachers, with middle alternative projections: Selected years

Current expenditures and average annual teacher salaries in public elementary and secondary schools are both projected to increase in constant dollars between school years 2000-01 and 2012-13, with current expenditures projected to increase more rapidly.

Between 2000–01 and 2012–13, increases are expected in the current expenditures and current expenditures per pupil of public elementary and secondary schools (figure E).

Current expenditures. Current expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars increased 47 percent from 1987–88 to 2000–01. From 2000–01 to 2012–13, current expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars are projected to increase

• 31 percent, to $465 billion, in the middle alternative projections;
• 19 percent, to $420 billion, in the low alternative projections; and
• 43 percent, to $507 billion, in the high alternative projections.

• 26 percent, to $9,400, in the middle alternative projections;
• 14 percent, to $8,500, in the low alternative projections; and
• 37 percent, to $10,300, in the high alternative projections.

Teacher salaries are projected to increase between 2002–03 and 2012–13. In the middle alternative projections, teacher salaries in constant 2001–02 dollars are projected to

• increase to $47,400 in 2012–13; and
• increase 6 percent between 2002–03 and 2012–13.

Figure E. Current expenditures per pupil in 2001-02 dollars, with middle alternative projections: Selected years

Current-fund expenditures in both public 4-year degree-granting institutions and public 2-year degree-granting institutions are projected to increase in constant dollars between school years 1999–2000 and 2012–13.

Between 1999–2000 and 2012–13, increases are expected in the current-fund expenditures of public degree-granting institutions (figure F).

Current-fund expenditures. Current-fund expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars of 4-year and 2-year degree-granting institutions combined increased 43 percent from 1987–88 to 1999–2000. From 1999–2000 to 2012–13, current-fund expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars are projected to increase

• 43 percent, to $229 billion, in the middle alternative projections;
• 32 percent, to $212 billion, in the low alternative projections; and
• 51 percent, to $241 billion, in the high alternative projections.

Between 1999–2000 and 2012–13, increases are expected in the current-fund expenditures and the educational and general expenditures of public 4-year degree-granting institutions. Both overall increases and increases per student in full-time-equivalent (FTE) enrollment are expected.

Current-fund expenditures. Current-fund expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars increased 42 percent from 1987–88 to 1999–2000. From 1999–2000 to 2012–13, public 4-year institutions' current-fund expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars are projected to increase

• 43 percent, to $188 billion, in the middle alternative projections;
• 35 percent, to $178 billion, in the low alternative projections; and
• 49 percent, to $196 billion, in the high alternative projections.

• 16 percent, to $30,800, in the middle alternative projections;
• 12 percent, to $29,900, in the low alternative projections; and
• 16 percent, to $31,000, in the high alternative projections.

• 38 percent overall, from $99 billion to $136 billion; and
• 12 percent per student in FTE enrollment, from $20,000 to $22,300.

Between 1999–2000 and 2012–13, increases are expected in the current-fund expenditures and the educational and general expenditures of public 2-year degree-granting institutions. Both overall increases and increases per student in FTE enrollment are expected.

Current-fund expenditures. Current-fund expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars increased 50 percent from 1987–88 to 1999–2000. From 1999–2000 to 2012–13, public 2-year institutions' current-fund expenditures in constant 2001–02 dollars are projected to increase

• 40 percent, to $41 billion, in the middle alternative projections;
• 18 percent, to $34 billion, in the low alternative projections; and
• 56 percent, to $45 billion, in the high alternative projections.

• increase 16 percent, to $10,800, in the middle alternative projections;
• decrease less than 1 percent, to $9,300, in the low alternative projections; and
• increase 24 percent, to $11,600, in the high alternative projections.

• 42 percent overall, from $27 billion to $38 billion; and
• 16 percent per student in FTE enrollment, from $8,800 to $10,300.

Figure F. Current-fund expenditures of public degree-granting institutions, with middle alternative projections: Selected years

Gerald, D.E., and Hussar, W.J. (2001). Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 (NCES 2001–083). U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Gerald, D.E., and Hussar, W.J. (2002). Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 (NCES 2002–030). U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Hussar, W.J., and Gerald, D.E. (2003). Pocket Projections: Projections of Education Statistics to 2013 (NCES 2004–019). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.