Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 , NCES Fall 2002 Quarterly

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Vol 4, Issue 3, Topic: Crosscutting Statistics

Projections of Education Statistics to 2012

By: Debra E. Gerald and William J. Hussar

This article was originally published as the Foreword and Highlights of the Compendium report of the same name. The universe and sample survey data are from many sources, both government and private, which are listed at the end of this article.

Introduction
Highlights of Changes Between 2000 and 2012
References

Introduction

Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 is the 31st report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 (Gerald and Hussar 2001) and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollments and graduates to the year 2012. Projections of teachers and expenditures are not included in this edition, but they are available in Projections of Education Statistics to 2011.

In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2012 at the state level. These projections were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states.

Methodology

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. The projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

The full report contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national and state-level projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from the company DRI-WEFA, Inc., an economic forecasting service.

The population projections are not based on the 2000 census data. Projections of national population data based on the 2000 census are not scheduled for release until fall 2002. The projections presented in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 census, incorporation of the 2000 estimates, and the latest assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and the mortality rate.

Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes.

Summary information

Highlights of projected changes in key education statistics are presented below. A convenient summary of the projections in this report is available in a pocket-sized booklet, Pocket Projections: Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 (Hussar and Gerald 2002).

Highlights of Changes Between 2000 and 2012

Public and private elementary and secondary enrollment—1 percent increase

Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase from 53.2 million in 2000 to 53.9 million in 2005 (table A). Then total enrollment is projected to decrease to 53.5 million in 2010, followed by an increase to 53.7 million in 2012, resulting in an overall increase of 1 percent from 2000.

Public and private K–8 enrollment—less than 1 percent decrease

Total public and private K–8 enrollment is projected to remain around 38.4 million between 2000 and 2002 (table A). Then total K–8 enrollment is projected to decrease to 37.7 million in 2008, followed by an increase to 38.3 million in 2012, resulting in an overall decrease of less than 1 percent from 2000.

Public and private 9–12 enrollment—4 percent increase

Total public and private 9–12 enrollment is projected to increase from 14.8 million in 2000 to 16.1 million in 2007 (table A). Then total 9–12 enrollment is projected to decrease to 15.4 million in 2012, resulting in an overall increase of 4 percent from 2000.

Public school enrollment in grades 10, 11, and 12—more than 4 percent increase

Between 2000 and 2012, public school enrollment in grade 10 is projected to increase by 4 percent. Over the same period, enrollments in grades 11 and 12 are expected to increase 5 and 8 percent, respectively.

Public school enrollment in grades 1, 8, and 9—less than 4 percent increase

Between 2000 and 2012, public school enrollment in grade 1 is projected to increase 2 percent. Over the same period, enrollments in grades 8 and 9 are projected to increase 2 and 3 percent, respectively.

Public school enrollment in the Western region—9 percent increase

Between 2000 and 2012, public elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase 9 percent in the West and 1 percent in the South. Over the same period, in the Northeast and Midwest, enrollment is projected to decrease 5 and 4 percent, respectively.

Enrollment in degree-granting institutions—15 percent increase

Enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary institutions is projected to increase from 15.3 million in 2000 to 17.7 million by 2012, an increase of 15 percent. A 12 percent increase is projected under the low alternative and a 19 percent increase is projected under the high alternative (figure A).

High school graduates—9 percent increase

Graduates from public and private high schools are projected to increase from 2.8 million in 1999–2000 to 3.1 million by 2011–12, an increase of 9 percent. This increase reflects the projected rise in the 18-year-old population.

Public high school graduates in the Western region—17 percent increase

Between 1999–2000 and 2011–12, the number of public high school graduates is projected to increase 17 percent in the West and 11 percent in the South. Graduates in the Northeast and the Midwest are projected to increase 8 and 1 percent, respectively, over the same period.

Bachelor's degrees—16 percent increase

The number of bachelor's degrees is expected to increase from 1.2 million in 1999–2000 to 1.4 million by 2011–12, an increase of 16 percent.

Figure A.—Enrollment in degree-granting institutions, with alternative projections: Fall 1987 to fall 2012
Figure A.- Enrollment in degree-granting institutions, with alternative projections: Fall 1987 to fall 2012

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, "Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universities" surveys; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) surveys; and Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model. (Originally published as figure 15 on p. 29 of the complete report from which this article is excerpted.)

Table A.—Enrollment in grades K–8 and 9–12 of elementary and secondary schools, by control of institution, with projections: Fall 1987 to fall 2012 (In thousands)

Year	Total			Public			Private
Year	K–12¹	K–8¹	9–12	K–12¹	K–8¹	9–12	K–12¹	K–8¹	9–12
1987²	45,487	32,165	13,323	40,008	27,933	12,076	5,479	4,232	1,247
1988²	45,430	32,537	12,893	40,188	28,501	11,687	5,242	4,036	1,206
1989³	45,741	33,187	12,554	40,543	29,152	11,390	5,198	4,035	1,163
1990⁴	46,451	33,962	12,488	41,217	29,878	11,338	5,234	4,084	1,150
1991³	47,322	34,619	12,703	42,047	30,506	11,541	5,275	4,113	1,162
1992⁴	48,145	35,264	12,882	42,823	31,088	11,735	5,322	4,175	1,147
1993³	48,813	35,719	13,093	43,465	31,504	11,961	5,348	4,215	1,132
1994⁴	49,609	36,233	13,376	44,111	31,898	12,213	5,498	4,335	1,163
1995³	50,502	36,806	13,697	44,840	32,341	12,500	5,662	4,465	1,197
1996⁴	51,375	37,316	14,060	45,611	32,764	12,847	5,764	4,551	1,213
1997³	51,968	37,696	14,272	46,127	33,073	13,054	5,841	4,623	1,218
1998⁴	52,476	38,048	14,427	46,539	33,346	13,193	5,937	4,702	1,235
1999³	52,875	38,254	14,623	46,857	33,489	13,369	6,018	4,765	1,254
2000⁴	53,167	38,387	14,780	47,223	33,709	13,514	5,944	4,678	1,266
Projected
2001	53,369	38,414	14,954	47,424	33,746	13,678	5,944	4,668	1,276
2002	53,566	38,416	15,150	47,613	33,756	13,857	5,953	4,660	1,292
2003	53,700	38,320	15,380	47,746	33,677	14,069	5,954	4,644	1,310
2004	53,800	38,120	15,680	47,846	33,500	14,346	5,954	4,620	1,334
2005	53,866	37,917	15,948	47,912	33,315	14,597	5,954	4,603	1,351
2006	53,862	37,765	16,097	47,912	33,174	14,739	5,950	4,592	1,358
2007	53,789	37,666	16,123	47,847	33,078	14,768	5,942	4,588	1,355
2008	53,652	37,661	15,991	47,719	33,069	14,649	5,933	4,592	1,341
2009	53,538	37,726	15,812	47,607	33,122	14,485	5,931	4,604	1,327
2010	53,498	37,869	15,629	47,561	33,244	14,317	5,937	4,625	1,313
2011	53,538	38,039	15,500	47,586	33,389	14,197	5,952	4,649	1,303
2012	53,692	38,258	15,434	47,715	33,578	14,137	5,977	4,680	1,297

¹Includes most kindergarten and some nursery school enrollment.

²Private school numbers are interpolated based on data from the 1985 Private School Survey.

³Private school numbers are from the Private School Universe Survey.

⁴Private school numbers are interpolated based on data from the Private School Universe Survey.

NOTE: Some data have been revised from previously published figures. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics: Key Statistics on Public Elementary and Secondary Schools; Common Core of Data (CCD) surveys; 1985 Private School Survey; Private School Universe Survey (PSS), various years; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (Originally published as table 1 on p.12 of the complete report from which this article is excerpted.)

References

Gerald, D.E., and Hussar, W.J. (2001). Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 (NCES 2001–083). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Hussar, W.J., and Gerald, D.E. (2002). Pocket Projections: Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 (NCES 2002–033). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Data sources:

NCES: Common Core of Data (CCD); Private School Universe Survey (PSS); Key Statistics on Public Elementary and Secondary Schools; National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model; State Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model; "Fall Enrollment in Colleges and Universities" surveys; Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS); Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Model; Public and Private Elementary and Secondary Education Statistics, Early Estimates; Projections of Education Statistics, various years; National Elementary and Secondary High School Graduates Model; State Public High School Graduates Model; "Degrees and Other Formal Awards Conferred" surveys; and Earned Degrees Conferred Model.

U.S. Bureau of the Census: Current Population Reports; "National Population Estimates," December 2001; and "Annual Projections of Total Resident Population," 1999–2100.

Other: DRI-WEFA, Inc. (an economic forecasting service).

For technical information, see the complete report:

Gerald, D.E., and Hussar, W.J. (2002). Projections of Education Statistics to 2012 (NCES 2002–030).

Author affiliations: D.E. Gerald and W.J. Hussar, NCES.

For questions about content, contact William J. Hussar (william.hussar@ed.gov).

To obtain the complete report (NCES 2002–030), call the toll-free ED Pubs number (877–433–7827), visit the NCES Electronic Catalog (http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch), or contact GPO (202–512–1800).