NCES 2013-008
January 2013

## Section 2. High School Graduates: State and Regional (Public School Data)

Figure 8. Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2008-09 through 2021-22

NOTE: Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2009-10; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980-81 through 2008-09. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

## High school graduates by state

The expected 5 percent national increase in public high school graduates between 2008-09 and 2021-22 plays out differently among the states.

• High school graduates are projected to be higher in 2021-22 than in 2008-09 for 31 states, with projected high school graduates
• 5 percent or more higher in 23 states; and
• less than 5 percent higher in 8 states.
• High school graduates are projected to be lower in 2021-22 than in 2008-09 for 19 states and the District of Columbia, with projected high school graduates
• 5 percent or more lower in 8 states and the District of Columbia; and
• less than 5 percent lower in 11 states.

Figure 9. Actual and projected numbers for public high school graduates, by region: School years 2003-04, 2008-09, and 2021-22

NOTE: See the glossary for a list of states in each region. Mean absolute percentage errors of public high school graduates by state and region can be found in table A-10, appendix A. Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published figures.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Nonfiscal Survey of Public Elementary/Secondary Education," 2004-05 and 2009-10; and State Public High School Graduates Model, 1980-81 through 2008-09. (This figure was prepared February 2012.)

## High school graduates by region

The number of public high school graduates is projected to

• be less than 1 percent lower in 2021-22 than in 2008-09 in the Northeast;
• decrease 4 percent in betwee 2008-09 and 2021-22 in the Midwest;
• increase 11 percent between 2008-09 and 2021-22 in the South; and
• increase 8 percent between 2008- 09 and 2021-22 in the West.