Projections of Education Statistics to 2008 / Appendix A3
Appendix A3. Earned Degrees Conferred
Projections of associate, bachelor's, master's, doctor's, and
first-professional degrees by sex were based on demographic models
that relate degree awards to college-age populations and college
enrollment by level enrolled and attendance status.
Associate Degrees
Associate degree projections by sex were based on undergraduate
enrollment by attendance status in 2-year institutions. Results of
the regression analysis used to project associate degrees by sex
are shown in
table A3.1.
Bachelor's Degrees
Bachelor's degree projections by sex were based on the 18- to
24-year-old population and undergraduate enrollment by attendance
status in 4-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis
used to project bachelor's degrees by sex are shown in
table A3.2.
Master's Degrees
Master's degree projections for men assume that the number of
degrees will increase by 2,000 each year through 2007-08. Master's
degree projections for women assume that the number of degrees will
increase by 2,000 each year through 2007-08.
Doctor's Degrees
Doctor's degree projections for men assume that the number of
degrees will increase by 100 each year through 1999-2000 and then
decrease by 100 each year through 2007-08. Doctor's degree
projections for women were based on a time trend variable. The
results of the regression analysis used to project doctor's degrees
for women are shown in
table A3.3.
First-Professional Degrees
First-professional degree projections by sex were based on
first-professional enrollment by attendance status in 4-year
institutions. Results of the regression analysis used to project
first-professional degrees by sex are shown in
table A3.4.
Methodological Tables
These tables describe equations used to calculate projections
(tables A3.1 through A3.4), and basic assumptions underlying
projections (
table A3.5).
Projection Accuracy
An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in the
past 12 editions of
Projections of Education Statistics indicates
that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for bachelor's degree
projections were 2.1 percent for 1 year out, 3.1 percent for 2
years out, and 7.2 percent for 5 years out. For the 1-year-out
prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be
within 2.1 percent of the actual value, on the average. For
first-professional degrees, the MAPEs were 2.4, 3.4, and 3.6
percent, respectively. For doctor's degrees, based on the past
eleven editions of
Projections of Education Statistics , the MAPEs
were 2.5, 4.2, and 9.9 percent, respectively. MAPEs for master's
degrees, based on the past ten editions of
Projections of Education
Statistics , were 2.2, 4.5, and 12.2, respectively. MAPEs for
associate degrees, based on the past eight editions of
Projections
of Education Statistics , were 2.1 percent for 1 year out, 3.4
percent for 2 years out, and 6.4 percent for 3 years out.
