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Projections of Education Statistics to 2008 / Chapter 8
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Chapter 8. Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

Public elementary and secondary school enrollment is projected to rise between 1996 and the year 2008, but growth will vary widely across the Nation (table 45 and figure 63). Enrollment will increase most rapidly in the Western and Southern regions, where public school enrollment is expected to rise 16 percent and 7 percent, respectively. An increase of 1 percent is projected for the Northeastern region, while a decrease of 2 percent is expected in the Midwestern region (table 46 and figure 64).

Public School Enrollment

Over the projection period, public school enrollment is expected to vary across states. The Northeast will have enrollment increases in four out of nine states. Increases will occur in Massachusetts (4 percent), New Jersey (4 percent), New York (3 percent), and Rhode Island (3 percent). Decreases are projected in Connecticut (4 percent), Maine (9 percent), New Hampshire (0.2 percent), Pennsylvania (4 percent), and Vermont (2 percent). Over the projection period, enrollment will grow between 1996 and 2002 in most states, while it will decline between 2002 and 2008.

In the Midwest, enrollment will increase in three of the states between 1996 and 2008. Increases are projected for Illinois (2 percent), Indiana (3 percent), and Kansas (0.5 percent). Decreases are projected for Iowa (8 percent), Michigan (5 percent), Minnesota (6 percent), Missouri (1 percent), Nebraska (2 percent), North Dakota (7 percent), Ohio (4 percent), South Dakota (3 percent), and Wisconsin (6 percent).

Enrollment increases are projected for many of the Southern states between 1996 and 2008. Increases are projected for Delaware (8 percent), Georgia (13 percent), North Carolina (8 percent), Tennessee (8 percent), Texas (14 percent), and Virginia (8 percent). Smaller increases are expected for Alabama (5 percent), Florida (5 percent), Maryland (5 percent), Mississippi (3 percent), and South Carolina (5 percent). Decreases in enrollment have been projected for Arkansas (1 percent), the District of Columbia (9 percent), Kentucky (2 percent), Louisiana (3 percent), Oklahoma (4 percent), and West Virginia (8 percent).

All of the states in the West except Montana are expected to show increases in enrollment between 1996 and 2008. Increases are expected in Alaska (14 percent), Arizona (21 percent), California (20 percent), Hawaii (18 percent), Idaho (15 percent), Nevada (13 percent), New Mexico (16 percent), and Utah (13 percent) over the projection period. Smaller increases are expected in Colorado (8 percent), Oregon (2 percent), Washington (5 percent), and Wyoming (7 percent). Montana is expected to decrease by 1 percent.

Elementary Enrollment

Between 1996 and 2008, public elementary school enrollment in kindergarten through grade 8 (K-8) is expected to increase 2 percent. Increases in elementary enrollment are expected to occur in half of the states across the Nation (table 47 and figure 65). These expected increases in elementary enrollment are a reflection of immigration and the rising number of births beginning in 1977, rather than changes in the attendance rates of young children. The NCES projections do not account for enrollment increases that may be caused by changing state and local policies about the provision of prekindergarten and kindergarten programs. Expansion of these programs could lead to higher enrollments at the elementary school level.

Elementary enrollment is expected to show a decrease of 4 percent in the Northeast between 1996 and 2008 (table 48 and figure 66). Decreases are projected for Connecticut (8 percent), Maine (10 percent), Massachusetts (4 percent), New Hampshire (3 percent), New York (2 percent), Pennsylvania (7 percent), Rhode Island (4 percent), and Vermont (4 percent). An increase of 0.1 percent is projected for New Jersey.

A decrease in elementary enrollment has been projected for the Midwestern region. Between 1996 and 2008, enrollment in the Midwest is projected to decrease by 4 percent. Eleven of the twelve states in this region are projected to show decreases. These will occur in Illinois (2 percent), Iowa (7 percent), Kansas (1 percent), Michigan (7 percent), Minnesota (7 percent), Missouri (4 percent), Nebraska (2 percent), North Dakota (8 percent), Ohio (6 percent), South Dakota (1 percent), and Wisconsin (6 percent). An increase of 1 percent is expected for Indiana.

An increase of 3 percent is expected for the Southern region between 1996 and 2008. Increases are expected in Georgia (9 percent) and Texas (10 percent). Smaller increases are projected for Alabama (4 percent), Delaware (3 percent), Maryland (0.3 percent), Mississippi (2 percent), North Carolina (1 percent), South Carolina (2 percent), Tennessee (4 percent), and Virginia (4 percent). Decreases are projected for Arkansas (2 percent), the District of Columbia (12 percent), Florida (0.4 percent), Kentucky (3 percent), Louisiana (4 percent), Oklahoma (7 percent), and West Virginia (6 percent). Most of the growth in the states will occur between 1996 and 2002.

Elementary enrollment in the Western states is expected to rise between 1996 and 2008, an increase of 11 percent. Over the projection period, enrollment increases are anticipated for Alaska (12 percent), Arizona (15 percent), California (13 percent), Hawaii (17 percent), Idaho (17 percent), New Mexico (16 percent), Utah (13 percent), and Wyoming (10 percent). Other enrollment increases are projected for Colorado (4 percent), Montana (2 percent), Nevada (6 percent), Oregon (0.3 percent), and Washington (3 percent). Most of the growth in the states will occur between 1996 and 2002.

High School Enrollment

Between 1996 and 2008, enrollment in public high schools (grades 9 through 12) is expected to increase by 15 percent (table 49 and figure 67). Over the projection period, enrollment increases are projected in all of the regions.

The Northeast is projected to increase by 12 percent between 1996 and 2008 (table 50 and figure 68). Increases are expected in Massachusetts (24 percent), New Jersey (15 percent), New York (16 percent), and Rhode Island (21 percent). Other enrollment increases are expected for Connecticut (8 percent), New Hampshire (8 percent), Pennsylvania (2 percent), and Vermont (4 percent). Maine is projected to decrease by 8 percent. Most of growth in the states will occur between 1996 and 2002.

The Midwestern region is expected to show an increase of 2 percent in high school enrollment between 1996 and 2008. Increases are expected in Illinois (10 percent), Indiana (7 percent), Kansas (4 percent), Michigan (0.3 percent), and Missouri (5 percent). Decreases are projected in Iowa (9 percent), Minnesota (3 percent), Nebraska (2 percent), North Dakota (5 percent), Ohio (2 percent), South Dakota (7 percent), and Wisconsin (4 percent).

Between 1996 and 2008, public high school enrollment in the South is projected to increase by 16 percent. Over the projection period, increases are expected in Delaware (20 percent), Florida (21 percent), Georgia (23 percent), Maryland (16 percent), North Carolina (27 percent), South Carolina (13 percent), Tennessee (16 percent), Texas (24 percent), and Virginia (22 percent). Other increases are expected for Alabama (9 percent), Arkansas (1 percent), the District of Columbia (1 percent), Louisiana (2 percent), Mississippi (5 percent), and Oklahoma (1 percent). Decreases are expected for Kentucky (0.5 percent) and West Virginia (11 percent).

The Western region's public high school enrollment is expected to increase by 29 percent between 1996 and 2008. Between 1996 and 2008, increases have been projected for Alaska (18 percent), Arizona (38 percent), California (40 percent), Colorado (17 percent), Hawaii (23 percent), Idaho (10 percent), Nevada (32 percent), New Mexico (16 percent), Oregon (5 percent), Utah (13 percent), and Washington (9 percent). Decreases are expected for Montana (6 percent) and Wyoming (0.5 percent).


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Last updated August 10, 1998

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