Projections of Education Statistics to 2008 / Chapter 5

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Chapter 5: Classroom Teachers

Between 1996 and 2008, the number of classroom teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to rise, primarily due to the increase in school enrollment during this period. Increases are expected in the numbers of both elementary and secondary teachers. The number of secondary teachers will increase at a faster rate than the number of elementary teachers. The numbers of both public and private teachers are projected to grow. The projections do not take into account increases in the number of teachers which would be due to the effects of the proposed initiative to reduce elementary class sizes.

Three alternative projections of the numbers of classroom teachers were developed to indicate a range of possible outcomes. These alternatives are based on different assumptions about the growth paths for two of the key variables in the teacher model--disposable income per capita and education revenue receipts from state sources per capita. Under the middle alternative, disposable income per capita is projected to increase by 21 percent between 1996 and 2008, while education revenue receipts from state sources per capita will rise by 14 percent during this period. The low alternative assumes that disposable income per capita and education revenue receipts from state sources per capita will increase by 16 percent and 11 percent, respectively. The high alternative assumes that disposable income per capita and education revenue receipts from state sources per capita will increase by 24 percent and 18 percent, respectively. The third variable in the teacher model, enrollment by organizational level, is the same for all three alternatives.

For classroom teachers, the following tabulations show: (1) the average annual rate of change (in percent) for 1983-96 and the three alternative projected rates of change for 1996-2008 and (2) the rates of change for 1983-90 and 1990-96 and the middle alternative projected rates of change for 1996-2002 and 2002-2008. (Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.)

     Average annual rate of change (in percent)
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                                    Projected 1996-2008
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                 1983-96            Low   Middle   High 
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Total              1.6              0.9    1.1     1.3

Elementary         2.0              0.6    0.9     1.0
Secondary          1.0              1.2    1.5     1.6

Public             1.6              0.9    1.1     1.3 
Private            1.1              0.8    1.0     1.2
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Average annual rate of change (in percent)
   (Middle alternative projections)
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                                             Projected
                                        ____________________
               1983-90     1990-96      1996-2002  2002-2008   
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Total            1.5         1.6            1.3      0.9

Elementary       2.4         1.5            1.1      0.6 
Secondary        0.3         1.8            1.7      1.2 


Public           1.6         1.6            1.3      0.9 
Private          0.7         1.4            1.3      0.8  
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Elementary and Secondary School Teachers

The number of classroom teachers in elementary and secondary schools increased from 2.48 million in 1983 to about 3.03 million in 1996, an increase of 22 percent (table 32 and figure 43). Under the middle alternative, the number of classroom teachers is projected to increase to 3.46 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent, for a 14-percent increase over the projection period. The growth rate will be higher in the first half of the projection period (1996-2002) than in the second half (2002-2008), 1.3 percent per year versus 0.9 percent (figure 44). Under the low alternative, the number of classroom teachers is projected to increase to 3.37 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent. Under the high alternative, classroom teachers are projected to increase to 3.53 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent.

Classroom Teachers, by Organizational Level

The number of elementary teachers increased from 1.43 million in 1983 to 1.84 million in 1996, an increase of 29 percent from 1983 (figure 45). Under the middle alternative, the number of elementary teachers is projected to increase to 2.05 million by 2008, an increase of 11 percent from 1996; this increase represents an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent per year. During the projection period, the growth rate in the 1996-2002 period will be 1.1 percent, while the growth rate in the 2002-2008 period will be 0.6 percent (figure 46). Under the low alternative, the number of elementary teachers is projected to increase to 1.99 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 0.6 percent. Under the high alternative, elementary teachers are projected to increase to 2.09 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent.

The number of secondary classroom teachers increased from 1.05 million in 1983 to about 1.19 million in 1996, an increase of 13 percent from 1983. Under the middle alternative, the number of secondary teachers is projected to increase from 1.19 million in 1996 to 1.41 million by the year 2008, resulting in an increase of 19 percent. This increase will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent over the projection period. During the projection period, the growth rate in the 1996-2002 period will be 1.7 percent, while the growth rate in the 2002-2008 period will be 1.2 percent. Under the low alternative, the number of secondary teachers is projected to increase to 1.38 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent. Under the high alternative, secondary teachers are projected to increase to 1.44 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.6 percent.

Classroom Teachers, by Control of School

The number of classroom teachers in public elementary and secondary schools increased from 2.14 million in 1983 to about 2.65 million in 1996, an increase of 24 percent from 1983 (figure 47). Under the middle alternative, the number of public school teachers is projected to increase to 3.02 million by the year 2008, resulting in an increase of 14 percent from 1996. This increase will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent. During the projection period, the growth rate in the 1996-2002 period will be 1.3 percent, while the growth rate in the 2002-2008 period will be 0.9 percent (figure 48). Under the low alternative, the number of public school teachers is projected to increase to 2.94 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent. Under the high alternative, public school teachers are projected to increase to 3.08 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent.

The number of classroom teachers in private elementary and secondary schools was an estimated 387,000 in 1996. Under the middle alternative, this number is projected to increase to 438,000 by the year 2008, an increase of 13 percent from 1996. This increase will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent. During the projection period, the growth rate in the 1996-2002 period will be 1.3 percent, while the growth rate in the 2002-2008 period will be 0.8 percent. Under the low alternative, the number of private school teachers is projected to increase to 426,000 by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. Under the high alternative, private school teachers are projected to increase to 447,000 by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent.

Pupil-Teacher Ratios

A broad relationship between the number of pupils and teachers can be described by the pupil-teacher ratio. The pupil-teacher ratios were computed based on elementary and secondary enrollment by organizational level and the number of classroom teachers by organizational level.

The pupil-teacher ratio in elementary schools decreased from 19.6 in 1983 to 18.4 in 1989. Then, the pupil-teacher ratio increased to 18.6 in 1996 (table 33 and figure 49). Under the middle alternative, this ratio is projected to decline to 17.0 by the year 2008. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil-teacher ratio in elementary schools is expected to range between 16.6 and 17.5 by the year 2008.

For public elementary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil-teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 18.9 in 1996 to 17.3 by the year 2008 (figure 50). Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil-teacher ratio in public elementary schools is projected to range between 17.0 and 17.8 by the year 2008. For private elementary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil-teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 16.4 in 1996 to 15.1 by the year 2008. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil-teacher ratio in private elementary schools is expected to range between 14.8 and 15.5 by the year 2008.

For secondary schools, the pupil-teacher ratio decreased from 16.2 in 1983 to 14.3 in 1990. Next, it increased to about 14.8 in 1992. Then, it declined to 14.5 in 1996. Under the middle alternative, this ratio is projected to decrease to 13.8 by 2008. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil-teacher ratio in secondary schools is projected to range between 13.6 and 14.1 by the year 2008.

For public secondary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil-teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 14.8 in 1996 to 14.1 by 2008. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil-teacher ratio in public secondary schools is expected to range between 13.8 and 14.4 by the year 2008. For private secondary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil-teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 11.5 in 1996 to 11.1 by the year 2008. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil-teacher ratio in private secondary schools is projected to range between 10.9 and 11.3 by the year 2008.

Although private school classroom teachers represented 13 percent of total classroom teachers in 1996, private school enrollment was 11 percent of total enrollment. This indicates that private schools have more teachers for a given number of students than do public schools; that is, private school pupil-teacher ratios are smaller than public school pupil-teacher ratios.

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