Chapter 3: High School Graduates

The number of high school graduates is projected to increase over the projection period. This increase in the number of high school graduates reflects the overall change in the 18-year-old population during the same period (figure 29). Increases in the number of graduates are expected for both public and private schools. However, projections of graduates could be impacted by changes in policies affecting graduation requirements.

The tabulations below provide the following information about trends in the number of high school graduates: (1) the average annual rate of change (in percent) for 1982-83 to 1995-96 and the projected growth rate for 1995-96 to 2007-08 and (2) the rates of change for 1982-83 to 1989-90 and 1989-90 to 1995-96 and the projected growth rates for 1995-96 to 2001-02 and 2001-02 to 2007-08. (Calculations are based on unrounded numbers.)

	Average annual rate of change (in percent)
___________________________________________________________

                                              Projected
                   1982-83             ____________________
                      to                       1995-96
                   1995-96                        to
                                               2007-08   
___________________________________________________________

Total               -0.9                          1.5

Public              -0.9                          1.5
Private             -0.6                          1.5
___________________________________________________________



	Average annual rate of change (in percent)
___________________________________________________________


                                            Projected
              1982-83    1989-90     ______________________
                 to         to        1995-96       2001-02        
              1989-90    1995-96         to            to
                                      2001-02       2007-08 
___________________________________________________________

Total           -1.6       -0.1          1.9           1.2

Public          -1.6       -0.1          1.9           1.2
Private         -1.2        0.1          1.9           1.2
___________________________________________________________

Total High School Graduates

The number of high school graduates from public and private schools decreased from 2.9 million in 1982-83 to 2.6 million in 1985-86 (table 26 and figure 30). After 1985-86, this number increased to 2.8 million in 1987-88. Then, it decreased to around 2.6 million in 1995-96, a decrease of 11 percent from 1982-83, or an average annual rate of decline of 0.9 percent. Then, the total number of high school graduates is projected to rise to 3.1 million by 2007-08, an increase of 20 percent from 1995-96, or an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. During the projection period, the growth rate will be higher in the first half of the projection period (1995-96 to 2001-02) than the growth rate in the second half (2001-02 to 2007-08), 1.9 percent per year versus 1.2 percent per year.

High School Graduates, by Control of Institution

The number of graduates of public high schools decreased from 2.6 million in 1982-83 to 2.4 million in 1985-86 (figure 31). Then, it increased to 2.5 million in 1987-88 before declining to about 2.3 million in 1995-96, a decrease of 11 percent from 1982-83, or an average annual rate of decline of 0.9 percent. Over the projection period, public high school graduates are projected to increase to 2.8 million by 2007-08, an increase of 20 percent from 1995-96, or an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. During the projection period, the growth rate will be higher in the first half of the projection period (1995-96 to 2001-02) than the growth rate in the second half (2001-02 to 2007-08), 1.9 percent per year versus 1.2 percent per year (figure 32).

The number of graduates of private high schools is projected to increase from an estimated 267,000 in 1995-96 to 321,000 by 2007-08, an increase of 20 percent, or an average annual growth rate of 1.5 percent. During the projection period, the growth rate will be higher in the first half of the projection period (1995-96 to 2001-02) than the growth rate in the second half (2001-02 to 2007-08), 1.9 percent per year versus 1.2 percent per year.