Projections of Education Statistics to 2008 / 98016 / Chapter 2. Higher Education Enrollment

Projections of Education Statistics to 2008 / Chapter 2

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Chapter 2: Higher Education Enrollment

Enrollment in institutions of higher education * is expected to rise between 1996 and the year 2008. Changes in age-specific enrollment rates and college-age populations will affect enrollment levels over the next 12 years (figures 8 and 9). The most important factor in the projected rise of college enrollment is the projected increase of 18 percent in the traditional college-age population of 18- to 24-year-olds (table B4). The 25- to 29-year-old population is projected to decrease by 10 percent between 1996 and 2002, and then increase by 13 percent between 2002 and 2008. The 30- to 34-year-old population will decrease by 17 percent. The 35- to 44-year-old population will increase by 3 percent between 1996 and 1999, and then decrease by 10 percent between 1999 and 2008. The increases in the younger population are expected to offset the loss of students from the older populations, thereby contributing to the increases in college enrollment over the projection period.

Total Higher Education Enrollment

In the late 1970s and early 1980s, older students, primarily women and part-time students, began to enroll in greater numbers. As a resurveyslt, college enrollment stood at 12.5 million in 1983. In 1984 and 1985, enrollment declined to 12.2 million. Then it increased, reaching 14.5 million in 1992. By 1996, it had decreased to an estimated 14.3 million (table 3 and figure 10). Under the middle alternative, college enrollment is projected to rise to 16.1 million by the year 2008, an increase of 12 percent from 1996. This will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent over the projection period. Between 1996 and 2002, college enrollment is projected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. Between 2002 and 2008, it will grow at an average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent (figure 11). The 18- to 24-year-old population is projected to increase 18 percent by the year 2008. This increase in the younger population is expected to offset somewhat the expected decline in the number of 25- to 34-year-olds enrolled in college.

The following tabulations show key enrollment statistics: (1) the average annual rate of growth (in percent) for 1983-96 and alternative projected rates of change for 1996-2008 and (2) average annual rates of change for 1983-90 and 1990-96 and the middle alternative projected rates of change for 1996-2002 and 2002-2008. (Calculations are based on unrounded numbers. A percent of 0.0 indicates that the number is between 0.0 and 0.05.)

Average annual rate of change (in percent) __________________________________________________________________ Projected 1996-2008 ___________________ 1983-96 Low Middle High __________________________________________________________________ Total 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 Men 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 Women 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 Full-time 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.5 Part-time 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 Public 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 Private 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 4-year 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 2-year 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 Undergraduate 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 Graduate 1.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 First-professional 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 Full-time-equivalent 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 _________________________________________________________________

Average annual rate of change (in percent) (Middle alternative projections) __________________________________________________________________ Projected ____________________ 1983-90 1990-96 1996-2002 2002-2008 ___________________________________________________________________ Total 1.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 Men 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.0 Women 2.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 Full-time 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.6 Part-time 2.0 0.7 0.3 0.4 Public 1.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 Private 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 4-year 1.5 0.4 0.9 1.2 2-year 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.9 Undergraduate 1.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 Graduate 2.4 1.4 -0.2 0.5 First-professional -0.3 0.7 -1.0 1.1 Full-time-equivalent 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 ___________________________________________________________________

Under the low alternative, college enrollment is projected to increase from an estimated 14.3 million in 1996 to 15.9 million by the year 2008. This will represent an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent, for an increase of 11 percent over the projection period.

Under the high alternative, college enrollment is expected to increase from an estimated 14.3 million in 1996 to 16.2 million by the year 2008. This will represent an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, for an increase of 13 percent over the projection period.

Higher education enrollment projections were based on projected enrollment rates, by age and sex, which were then applied to population projections by age and sex developed by the Bureau of the Censurveys. The middle series population projections, which assurveysme middle fertility and net immigration, were used. The age-specific enrollment rates by sex and attendance status were projected based on an econometric estimation of relationships to relevant macroeconomic variables surveysch as income and unemployment rates, proxies for relative earnings, by age group.

Three alternative projections of enrollment in institutions of higher education were developed to indicate the range of possible outcomes. The middle alternative assurveysmes that the age-specific enrollment rates of men and women enrolled full-time are a function of dummy variables by age, log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita, and log unemployment rate by age group. The middle alternative assurveysmes that the age-specific enrollment rates of men and women enrolled part-time are a function of dummy variables by age and log of four-period weighted average of real disposable income per capita. These relationships will continue through 2008. The low and high alternatives were developed using the WEFA, Inc. pessimistic (low) and optimistic (high) scenarios for the projections of disposable income and unemployment rates. For more information, see appendix A, section A.1.

Enrollment, by Sex of Student

Women played a major role in the increase of enrollment between 1983 and 1996. The enrollment of women in college increased from 6.4 million in 1983 to an estimated 8.0 million in 1996, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent, for a 25-percent increase over the period (figure 12). Under the middle alternative, enrollment of women is expected to increase to 9.2 million by the year 2008, an increase of 14 percent from 1996. This will represent a growth rate of 1.1 percent per year. The rate of growth will be lower during the first half of the projection period (1996-2002) than during the second half (2002-2008), 1.0 percent per year versurveys 1.2 percent per year (figure 13). As a share of total college enrollment, women were 56 percent of all college students in 1996 compared with 52 percent in 1983. Women are expected to increase their share to 57 percent of college enrollment in the year 2008. Under the low alternative, enrollment of women is expected to increase from 8.0 million in 1996 to 9.0 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.0 percent per year. Under the high alternative, enrollment of women is expected to increase from 8.0 million in 1996 to 9.3 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.2 percent per year.

The enrollment of men in college decreased from 6.0 million in 1983 to 5.8 million in 1985. Then it increased to 6.5 million in 1992, before decreasing to an estimated 6.3 million in 1996. Under the middle alternative, enrollment of men is expected to increase to 6.9 million by the year 2008, a 10-percent increase from 1996, for an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. Under the low alternative, enrollment of men is expected to increase from 6.3 million in 1996 to slightly under 6.9 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.7 percent per year. Under the high alternative, enrollment of men is expected to increase from 6.3 million in 1996 to over 6.9 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.8 percent per year.

Enrollment, by Attendance Status

Full-time enrollment increased from 7.3 million in 1983 to an estimated 8.1 million in 1996 (figure 14). This is an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent, for an increase of 11 percent over the period. Under the middle alternative, full-time enrollment is expected to increase another 18 percent to 9.6 million by the year 2008, representing an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent. Over the projection period, the growth rate for the 1996-2002 period will be lower than the growth rate for the 2002-2008 period, 1.2 percent per year versurveys 1.6 percent per year (figure 15). Under the low alternative, full-time enrollment is expected to increase from 8.1 million in 1996 to 9.4 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.3 percent per year. Under the high alternative, full-time enrollment is expected to increase from 8.1 million in 1996 to 9.7 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.5 percent per year. Full-time enrollment is expected to rise at a faster rate than part-time enrollment because of the influx of young traditional college-age students who tend to go to college full-time.

Part-time enrollment increased from 5.2 million in 1983 to an estimated 6.2 million in 1996. This is an average annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, for an increase of 20 percent over the period. Under the middle alternative, part-time enrollment is expected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 0.4 percent and reach 6.5 million by the year 2008, for an increase of 4 percent over the projection period. The growth rate for part-time enrollment during the 1996-2002 period will be less than the growth rate for the 2002-2008 period, 0.3 percent versurveys 0.4 percent. Under the low alternative, part-time enrollment is expected to increase from 6.2 million in 1996 to 6.4 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.3 percent per year. Under the high alternative, part-time enrollment is expected to increase from 6.2 million in 1996 to 6.6 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.4 percent per year.

Enrollment, by Control of Institution

Enrollment in public institutions grew from 9.7 million in 1983 to an estimated 11.2 million in 1996, increasing at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent, for an increase of 16 percent over the period (figure 16). Under the middle alternative, public enrollment is expected to increase to 12.5 million by 2008, rising by an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent, for an increase of 12 percent over the projection period. During the projection period, enrollment in public institutions is projected to increase at an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent during the 1996-2002 period and 1.1 percent during the 2002-2008 period (figure 17).

Under the low alternative, public enrollment is expected to increase from 11.2 million in 1996 to 12.4 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.8 percent per year. Under the high alternative, public enrollment is expected to increase from 11.2 million in 1996 to 12.7 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.0 percent per year.

Enrollment in private institutions, which include nonprofit and proprietary, increased from 2.8 million in 1983 to an estimated 3.1 million in 1996, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent, for an increase of 13 percent over the period. Under the middle alternative, private enrollment is expected to increase to 3.5 million by 2008, rising by an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, for an increase of 13 percent over the projection period. During the projection period, enrollment in private institutions is projected to increase at an annual growth rate of 0.8 percent during the 1996-2002 period and 1.2 percent during the 2002-2008 period.

Under the low alternative, private enrollment is expected to increase from 3.1 million in 1996 to 3.5 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.9 percent per year. Under the high alternative, private enrollment is expected to increase from 3.1 million in 1996 to 3.6 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.1 percent per year.

Enrollment, by Type of Institution

Enrollment in 4-year institutions increased from 7.7 million in 1983 to an estimated 8.8 million in 1996, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, for a 13 percent increase over the period (table 4 and figure 18). Under the middle alternative, enrollment in 4-year institutions is expected to rise to 10.0 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.1 percent, for a 14-percent increase over the projection period. During the projection period, enrollment in 4-year institutions is projected to increase at an annual growth rate of 0.9 percent during the 1996-2002 period and 1.2 percent during the 2002-2008 period (figure 19).

Under the low alternative, enrollment in 4-year institutions is expected to increase from 8.8 million in 1996 to 9.8 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.9 percent per year. Under the high alternative, enrollment in 4-year institutions is expected to increase from 8.8 million in 1996 to 10.1 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.2 percent per year.

Enrollment in 2-year institutions rose from 4.7 million in 1983 to an estimated 5.6 million in 1996, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.3 percent per year, for a 18-percent increase over the period (table 5). Under the middle alternative, enrollment in 2-year institutions is expected to rise to 6.1 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent, for a 10-percent increase over the projection period. During the projection period, enrollment in 2-year institutions is projected to increase at an annual growth rate of 0.7 percent during the 1996-2002 period and 0.9 percent during the 2002-2008 period.

Under the low alternative, enrollment in 2-year institutions is expected to increase from 5.6 million in 1996 to 6.0 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.7 percent per year. Under the high alternative, enrollment in 2-year institutions is expected to increase from 5.6 million in 1996 to 6.2 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.9 percent per year.

Enrollment, by Age

The alternative projections of higher education enrollment by age, sex, and attendance status are shown in table 6 (middle alternative), table 7 (low alternative), and table 8 (high alternative). Projections of college attendance rates appear on appendix table A1.3. These projections are based on age-specific enrollment data from the Bureau of the Censurveys and enrollment data from NCES.

Under the middle alternative, the period from 1988 to 2008 will be one of change in the age distribution of college students. The enrollment of students who are 18- to 24-years old increased from 7.68 million in 1988 to an estimated 7.91 million in 1996, an increase of 3.0 percent (table 6 and figure 26). This number is expected to increase to 9.6 million by the year 2008, an increase of 21 percent from 1996. As a resurveyslt, the proportion of students who are 18- to 24-years old, which fell from 59 percent in 1988 to 55 percent in 1996, is projected to be 60 percent by the year 2008.

On the other hand, the enrollment of students who are 25 years old and over increased from 5.2 million in 1988 to an estimated 6.24 million in 1996, an increase of 20 percent. This number is projected to decrease slightly to 6.23 million by the year 2008, a decrease of 0.2 percent. Over the projection period, the proportion of students 25 years old and over rose from 40 percent in 1988 to 44 percent in 1996. This proportion is projected to be 39 percent by the year 2008.

Enrollment, by Level

Undergraduate enrollment increased from 10.8 million in 1983 to an estimated 12.3 million in 1996, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, for a 14 percent increase over the period (table 14 and figure 20). Under the middle alternative, undergraduate enrollment is expected to increase to 14.0 million by the year 2008, at a growth rate of 1.1 percent per year, for a 14-percent increase over the projection period. During the projection period, undergraduate enrollment is projected to increase at an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent during the 1996-2002 period and 1.2 percent during the 2002-2008 period (figure 21).

Under the low alternative, undergraduate enrollment is expected to increase from 12.3 million in 1996 to 13.8 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.0 percent per year. Under the high alternative, undergraduate enrollment is expected to increase from 12.3 million in 1996 to 14.2 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.2 percent per year.

Graduate enrollment rose from 1.3 million in 1983 to an estimated 1.7 million in 1996, at an average annual growth rate of 1.9 percent, for a 28-percent increase over the period (table 17 and figure 22). Under the middle alternative, graduate enrollment is expected to increase to 1.75 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent, for a 2-percent increase over the projection period. During the projection period, graduate enrollment is projected to decrease at a rate of 0.2 percent during the 1996-2002 period and increase at a rate of 0.5 percent during the 2002-2008 period (figure 23).

Under the low alternative, graduate enrollment is expected to increase from 1.72 million in 1996 to 1.73 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of less than 0.05 percent per year. Under the high alternative, graduate enrollment is expected to increase from 1.72 million in 1996 to 1.77 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.2 percent per year.

First-professional enrollment increased from 279,000 in 1983 to an estimated 285,000 in 1996, an average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent, for a 2-percent increase over the period (table 20 and figure 22). Under the middle alternative, first-professional enrollment is expected to increase to 286,000 by 2008. This represents an annual growth rate of less than 0.05 percent over the projection period, a 0.4-percent increase from 1996. During the projection period, first-professional enrollment is projected to decrease at a rate of 1.0 percent during the 1996-2002 period and increase at a growth rate of 1.1 percent during the 2002-2008 period (figure 23).

Under the low alternative, first-professional enrollment is expected to decrease from 285,000 in 1996 to 282,000 by the year 2008, representing a rate of decline of 0.1 percent per year. Under the high alternative, first-professional enrollment is expected to increase from 285,000 in 1996 to 289,000 by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 0.1 percent per year.

Full-Time-Equivalent Enrollment

Full-time-equivalent enrollment increased from 9.2 million in 1983 to an estimated 10.3 million in 1996, increasing at an average annual rate of growth of 0.9 percent, for a 13-percent increase over the period (table 23 and figure 24). Under the middle alternative, full-time-equivalent enrollment is expected to increase to 11.9 million by the year 2008, increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent, for a 15-percent increase over the projection period. During the projection period, full-time-equivalent enrollment is projected to increase at an annual growth rate of 1.0 percent during the 1996-2002 period and 1.4 percent during the 2002-2008 period (figure 25).

In public institutions, full-time-equivalent enrollment, which was an estimated 7.8 million in 1996, will be 9.0 million by the year 2008 (table 24). In private institutions, full-time-equivalent enrollment, which was an estimated 2.6 million in 1996, will be 2.9 million by the year 2008 (table 25).

Under the low alternative, full-time-equivalent enrollment is expected to increase from 10.3 million in 1996 to 11.7 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.1 percent per year. Under the high alternative, full-time-equivalent enrollment is expected to increase from 10.3 million in 1996 to 12.0 million by the year 2008, representing a growth rate of 1.3 percent per year.