Expectations for finishing college did not decline from eighth to twelfth grade among any group of students who were college qualified as seniors. This was true regardless of students' family income, educational level, or racial-ethnic background. Therefore, the decline in expectations for the entire class was largely driven by a decline in expectations for those, primarily white, students who demonstrated a low level of academic aptitude and achievement in their senior year. Among four-year college-qualified students, on the other hand, expectations had been set by the eighth grade and did not change; in fact, the expectations of college-qualified low-income students appears to have increased slightly (69 to 74 percent), but there is not enough statistical evidence to conclude that they changed.
As shown in table 18, among all four-year college-qualified seniors who (in 1992) expected to finish college, 88 percent said that they planned to attend a four-year college. Long-term expectations and short-term plans for postsecondary education are based on different questions in the survey.\31\ There were no differences in plans to attend a four-year college between low- and middle-income college-qualified students who expected to finish college, and both were less likely than their high-income counterparts to plan to do so. Hispanic students were also less likely to plan to attend a four-year college; instead, they were more likely to plan to attend a two-year college or trade school.
The postsecondary plans of all the college-qualified seniors are shown in table 19. Nearly 9 out of 10 (88 percent) of all college-qualified 1992 high school graduates indicated during their senior year that they planned to continue their education immediately after high school, with no differences existing among racial-ethnic groups. Although 80 percent of college-qualified students from low-income families indicated that they planned to continue their education immediately after high school, they were less likely to plan to do so than middle-income (90 percent) and high-income (96 percent) students.
Among all college-qualified students who indicated that they did plan to continue their education after high school, 82 percent said they planned to attend a four-year institution. Among these, Hispanic students were less likely than black students to have planned to attend a four-year college (77 percent compared to 87 percent). There was no difference in the proportions of college-qualified students from low-income and middle-income families who planned to attend four-year institution (79 and 80 percent), compared to over 90 percent of the high-income students.
The postsecondary enrollment patterns of the college-qualified students are shown in table 20. Among all students qualified for admission to some four-year institutions, 12 percent did not attend any postsecondary institution by 1994. Almost one-quarter attended a two-year public institution, and 62 percent attended a four-year institution. Among the college-qualified, low-income students were more likely not to enroll in postsecondary education than middle- and high-income students (22 percent compared to 10 and 4 percent), and Hispanic students were more likely not to enroll than whites and Asians (18 percent compared to 11 and 8 percent, respectively).\32\
The four-year college enrollment patterns of students who were qualified to attend four-year colleges were still directly related to family income and parental education levels. Even though they were at least minimally qualified to attend a four-year college, just over half (52 percent) of the low-income students enrolled in a four-year college, compared to 62 percent of middle-income and 83 percent of high-income students. The four-year college enrollment rates of college-qualified black students were similar to those of whites (64 and 63 percent), but college-qualified Hispanics were less likely to enroll in a four-year college (49 percent) than any other racial-ethnic group of college-qualified high school graduates.
Table 21 displays the postsecondary enrollment patterns of the college-qualified seniors in a somewhat different way by focusing only on the distribution of those who enrolled by type of institution. Among those college-qualified students who did pursue postsecondary education, there were no differences between the proportions of low- and middle-income students who attended either a public two-year (27 and 28 percent) or any four-year college (67 and 69 percent). Similarly, among those who enrolled in postsecondary institutions, the proportion of black students attending four-year colleges was just as high as that of whites and Asians. Hispanic students who enrolled, however, were still more likely to attend a public two-year and were less likely to attend a four-year college than students from any other racial-ethnic group.\33\
31/ Although the terms are similar, in this report "expectations" refers to one specific question in the NELS survey ("How far in school do you think you will get?") which was asked in 1988 and again in 1992, while "plans" refers to another question (asked only in 1992) about their plans immediately after high school.
32/ While there appear to be large differences between black students compared with whites, only the difference be-tween blacks and Asians is statistically significant.
33/ K. Alexander et al. (1987) found that while holding academic qualification constant decreased differences in probabilities of four-year attendance between Hispanic, white, and black 1980 high school graduates who went to college, Hispanics were still slightly less likely to enroll in four-year institutions at all SES levels. K. Alexander et al., "Social Background and Academic Determinants of Two-Year Versus Four-Year College Attendance: Evidence From Two Cohorts a Decade Apart," American Journal of Education 96 (1987): 56-80.
