Public Elementary and Secondary Education Statistics: School Year 1996-97 / Technical Notes

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Technical Notes

Public School Early Estimates Methodology

In mid October 1996, survey forms were sent out to each state education agency. States were asked to return by mail or fax the completed form. Those which had not respond by late November were contacted by telephone. All data were checked for reasonableness against prior years' reports, and follow-up calls were made to resolve any questions. In some cases the change from 1996 to 1997 reflected improved reporting. When states did not supply a data item, NCES estimated a value. These values are footnoted. If one or more states required an estimated number, then the national total for that item is marked as estimated.

Data labeled as "reported" in this publication are as reported to NCES by state education agencies, and do not include estimations for missing data. Therefore, a value in this report may differ from the value for the same data element given in other publications, when the latter value is based on estimates. For example, student membership for fall 1995 is reported here as 44,742,740. In the forthcoming Statistics in Brief publication, student membership for fall 1995 is reported as *44,840,487. The latter number contains imputations for missing prekindergarten students in four states (Alabama, California, South Carolina, and Tennessee). Similar variations occur in all but the high school graduate data.

Missing values for student membership were estimated by multiplying a state's membership data from the 1995-96 school year by the rate of growth experienced by that state in student membership from 1994-95 to 1995-96.

Missing values for other data elements were estimated by state, using ratios of the missing quantity to the student membership value, and then adjusting this number by the average percent change for reporting states from the previous year for this element. For example, the procedure for estimating the number of teachers in the 1995-96 school year involved: (1) calculating the teacher-to-student ratio in the given state in 1995-96; (2) calculating the total growth rate in teacher-to-student ratios for reporting states from 1995-96 to 1996-97; and (3) multiplying the state student membership for the 1996-97 school year by the ratio calculated in step 1, and then multiplying this product by the growth rate calculated in step 2. Equivalent procedures were used for estimating numbers of high school graduates, revenues, and current expenditures.

*/ NOTE: The number shown is an unpublished number and is subject to change.

Accuracy of Estimates

Past years' data provide an indication of the differences between early estimates and final data. The early estimate of public school membership for fall 1995 was 44,661,558, which represented an increase of 1.5 percent from the fall 1994 value. The actual increase, based on the reported count of 44,742,740, was 1.7 percent. Last year's estimate indicated that there were 2,586,497 public school teachers for 1995-96, implying an increase of 1.5 percent over the previous year, while reported numbers indicated a decrease of 0.1 percent in the public school teachers over that year. For the number of public high school graduates, the estimate projected an increase of 3.4 percent from 1993-94 to 1994-95, while reported numbers indicate an increase of 2.5 percent. Revenues were estimated to increase 4.7 percent from 1993-94 to 1994-95, while the reported increase was 5.0 percent. The estimated increase in current expenditures, from 1993-94 to 1994-95, was 4.4 percent, as compared with an actual increase of 5.1 percent.

Looking at last year's estimates for each state and comparing them with final data, we see that all states' estimates of student membership for school year 1995-96 were within 10 percent of the final reported count. Two states' estimates for teachers were in error by more than 10 percent of the reported count. All but two states' estimates for high school graduates were within 10 percent of the reported count of graduates for school year 1994-95. For this same school year (fiscal year 1995), four states' estimates for revenues and two states' estimates for expenditures differed from the final reported amount by more than 10 percent of that amount.

Definitions

Membership is the unduplicated count of students on the roll of the school or local education agency on the school day closest to October 1-students who withdrew from school have been removed from the count. Unless otherwise specified, membership includes all students in prekindergarten through grade 12 and ungraded classes.

Teachers are professional staff who provide instruction to students and maintain daily student attendance figures for a group or class at any of the levels from prekindergarten through grade 12 and ungraded classes. Teacher numbers are reported in full-time equivalents (FTE), which are computed by dividing the amount of time employed in instruction by the time normally required of a full-time position.

Pupil-to-teacher ratio is the number of students divided by the number of teachers. The pupil-to-teacher ratio for public schools reported here represents an average across all levels. There is, however, variability across prekindergarten, elementary, and secondary grade levels and across programs such as special education and gifted and talented.

Graduates are defined as students receiving a regular high school diploma during the school year, including summer graduates. Early estimates are provided for the recent graduates from the 1995-96 school year, with projections for the 1996-97 school year.

Revenues are defined as additions to assets which do not incur an obligation that must be met at some future date, do not represent exchanges of fixed assets, and are available for expenditure by the local education agencies in the state. Revenues include funds from local, intermediate, state, and federal sources.

Current expenditures are funds spent for operating local public schools and include such items as salaries for school personnel, student transportation, school books and materials, and energy costs, but exclude capital outlay and interest on school debt.

Per pupil expenditure (or per pupil revenue) is the total current expenditure (or revenue) for public elementary and secondary education in a state divided by the student membership. The numbers reported here, based on membership, can be expected to be smaller than per pupil expenditures (and per pupil revenues) based on average daily attendance, because the membership counts are generally larger than average daily attendance. As with pupil-to-teacher ratio, the average reported here does not reflect variations across school districts, grade levels or programs.

For More Information

For information about the Public School Early Estimates System or the Common Core of Data, contact Lena McDowell, Institute of Education Sciences, 1900 K Street NW, Suite 9000, Washington DC 20006. Or contact Frank Johnson "frank.johnson@ed.gov".

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The Early Estimates System Acknowledgments