Dropout Rates in the United States: 1994

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This is the seventh annual dropout report to Congress by the National Center for Education Statistics. It presents data for 1994 on high school dropout and retention rates along with time series data for the period from 1972 through 1994. In addition to data on the 1994 dropout rate, this report uses data from the third follow-up to the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) to examine post-high school transitions and experiences of the eighth-grade class of 1988 during the first two years after scheduled graduation. The experiences of this cohort of young people in navigating the pathways from adolescence to adulthood will hopefully enlighten and inform the current efforts at improving young people's transitions from school-to-work, school-to-school, and work-to-school.

The data shown in this report indicate that dropout rates have generally decreased over the last two decades and completion rates have increased. In 1972, data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) estimated that, of young adults under age 25, 6 percent dropped out of school that year, over 14 percent were dropouts, and about 83 percent of young adults ages 18 to 24 had completed high school with either a regular diploma or an equivalency certificate (like a GED). In 1993 the comparable figures were less than 5 percent, 11 percent, and over 86 percent (figure A).

Figure A-Proportion of 15- to 24-year-olds dropping out of grades 10 to 12, proportion of 16- to 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and proportion of 18- to 24-year-olds who completed high school: 1972 to 1994

In 1994, the US Census Bureau made improvements to the administration and methodology of the CPS resulting in a more accurate count of young people without diplomas. With this improvement in methods (and adjustments for populations shifts between 1980 and 1990) a more accurate estimate of these rates showed that true dropout rates were somewhat higher than had been estimated in the past. The new estimates were 5.3 percent of young people dropping out of school last year, 11.5 percent were dropouts and 85.8 percent had completed high school.

Data for Figure A: Proportion of 15- to 24-year-olds dropping out of grades 10 to 12, proportion of 16- to 24-year-olds who were dropouts, and proportion of 18- to 24-year-olds who completed high school: October 1972 to 1994

Other findings of this report show that:

• Close to one-half million students age 15- through 24-year-olds left school between October 1993 and October 1994
• Reflecting the accumulation of dropouts over the last few years, in October of 1994 there were 3.7 million 16- through 24-year-olds who had not completed high school and were not enrolled in school.
• This represented 11.5 percent of all 16- through 24-year-olds in 1994 down from a recent high of 14.6 percent in 1979.
• In general minority students were more likely than white students to have dropped out. Dropout rates were also higher for low income students and students in the Southern and in the Western regions of the country.

The second chapter of this report looks at what happened to dropouts from the eighth grade class of 1988 in the two years immediately following their scheduled graduation from high school in 1992. These findings from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88) indicate that:

• By 1994, approximately 87 percent of the eighth-grade class of 1988 had completed high school by earning a diploma or an alternative credential.
• Those who did not earn a diploma were much less likely than high school graduates to enroll in postsecondary education; only about 7 percent were able to overcome this obstacle and enroll, compared with about 73 percent of high school graduates who were enrolled in a postsecondary institution by the spring of 1994.
• Those with alternative credentials were also less likely than high school graduates to enroll in postsecondary education, with only 33 percent participating.

Overall the findings outlined in this report show that while dropout rates have remained fairly constant over the last decade, there still are severe consequences for not completing high school. In terms of employment, earnings, and family formation, dropouts from high school face difficulties in making the transition to the adult world.

[Acknowledgments]

[Figure A]