an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J.
Johnston, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill,
1972, pages 251-252.
an estimation procedure for correcting the problem of
first-order autocorrelation. For a general discussion
of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used
to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G.
Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee,
The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York:
John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pages 315- 318.
CUREXP = Current expenditures of public elementary and
secondary schools per pupil in fall enrollment in constant
SALRY = Average annual salary of teachers in public elementary
and secondary schools in constant 1982-84 dollars
SGRNT = Local governments' education revenue receipts
from state sources, per capita, in constant 1982-84 dollars
PCI = Disposable income per capita in constant 1996 dollars
ENRPOP = Ratio of fall enrollment to the population
PERTAX1 = Personal taxes and nontax receipts to state
and local governments, per capita, in constant 1982-84
dollars lagged one period
RCPIANN = Inflation rate measured by the Consumer Price
RCPIANN1 = Inflation rate measured by the Consumer Price
Index lagged 1 period ENR1 = Fall enrollment lagged 1
period ENR2 = Fall enrollment lagged 2 periods
R2 indicates the coefficient of determination.
Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center
for Education Statistics, Elementary and Secondary School
Current Expenditures Model; Elementary and Secondary Teacher
Salary Model; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources
Model. (This table was prepared June 2001.)