• Go to the Latest Version of Projection of Education Statistics • Table A3.1.-Equations for earned degrees conferred Dependent Variable Equation R2 Durbin-Watsonstatistic1 Estimation technique2 Rho Timeperiod Associate's degrees ASSOCM = 108,173 + 55.7UGFT2M (1.5) + 37.0UGPT2M (2.2) 0.81 1.6 AR1 0.69 (4.1) 1970-71 to 1997-98 Associate's degrees Women ASSOCW = 83,441 + 194.0UGFT2W (6.2)     0.99 1.5 AR1 0.98 (39.0) 1970-71 to 1997-98 Bachelor's degrees Men BACHM = 251,901 - 10.8P1824M (-3.4) + 168.4UGFT4M (5.6) 0.88 1.7 AR1 0.63 (3.9) 1970-71 to 1997-98 Bachelor's degrees Women BACHW = 248,513 - 18.3P1824W (-4.7) + 233.9UGFT4W (21.7) 0.99 1.2 AR1 0.68 (4.7) 1970-71 to 1997-98 Master's degrees Men MASTM = 34,533 + 405.9GFTM (4.5)     0.92 1.3 AR1 0.89 (11.2) 1970-71 to 1997-98 Master's degrees Women MASTW = 38,964 + 530.5GFTW (13.2)     0.99 1.1 AR1 0.91 (13.2) 1972-73 to 1997-98 Doctor's degrees Men DOCM = 18,405 + 26.5GFTM1 (1.6) - 2,796.3RUC (-0.2) 0.91 1.1 AR1 0.96 (24.2) 1970-71 to 1997-98 Doctor's degrees Women DOCW = - 1,632 + 0.3P3544W (2.4) + 35.6GFTW (5.8) 0.99 2.2 AR1 0.70 (3.8) 1972-73 to 1997-98 First professional degrees Men FPROM = 10,572 + 228.0FPFTM (7.1)     0.87 1.9 AR1 0.48 (2.4) 1970-71 to 1997-98 First professional degrees Women FPROW = - 1,257 + 288.9FPFTW (22.2) + 201.5FPPTW (1.9) 0.99 1.5 OLS   1971-72 to 1997-98 1For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1972, pages 251-252. 2AR1 indicates an estimation procedure for correcting the problem of first-order autocorrelation. OLS indicates Ordinary Least Squares. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pages 315- 318. Where: ASSOCM = Number of associate's degrees awarded to men ASSOCW = Number of associate's degrees awarded to women BACHM = Number of bachelor's degress awarded to men BACHW = Number of bachelor's degress awarded to women MASTM = Number of master's degrees awarded to men MASTW = Number of master's degrees awarded to women DOCM = Number of doctor's degress awarded to men DOCW = Number of doctor's degress awarded to women FPROM = Number of first-professional degrees awarded to men FPROW = Number of first-professional degrees awarded to women UGFT2M = Full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands UGPT2M = Part-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands UGFT2W = Full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands P1824M = Population of 18- to 24-year-old men, in thousands P1824W = Population of 18- to 24-year-old women, in thousands UGFT4M = Full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands UGFT4W = Full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged 3 years, in thousands GFTM = Full-time male graduate enrollment, in thousands GFTW = Full-time female graduate enrollment, in thousands P3544W = Population of 35- to 44-year-old women, in thousands GFTM1 = Full-time male graduate enrollment lagged one year, in thousands GFTW = Full-time female graduate enrollment, in thousands RUC = Unemployment rate FPFTM = Full-time male first-professional enrollment lagged 2 years, in thousands FPFTW = Full-time female first-professional enrollment lagged 1 year, in thousands FPPTW = Part-time female first-professional enrollment lagged 2 years, in thousands NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Earned Degrees Conferred Model. (This table was prepared June 2001.)

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