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Projections of Education Statistics to 2011
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Table A3.1.-Equations for earned degrees conferred
Dependent Variable Equation R2 Durbin-Watsonstatistic1 Estimation technique2 Rho Timeperiod
Associate's degrees ASSOCM = 108,173 + 55.7UGFT2M (1.5) + 37.0UGPT2M (2.2) 0.81 1.6 AR1 0.69 (4.1) 1970-71 to 1997-98
Associate's degrees Women ASSOCW = 83,441 + 194.0UGFT2W (6.2)     0.99 1.5 AR1 0.98 (39.0) 1970-71 to 1997-98
Bachelor's degrees Men BACHM = 251,901 - 10.8P1824M (-3.4) + 168.4UGFT4M (5.6) 0.88 1.7 AR1 0.63 (3.9) 1970-71 to 1997-98
Bachelor's degrees Women BACHW = 248,513 - 18.3P1824W (-4.7) + 233.9UGFT4W (21.7) 0.99 1.2 AR1 0.68 (4.7) 1970-71 to 1997-98
Master's degrees Men MASTM = 34,533 + 405.9GFTM (4.5)     0.92 1.3 AR1 0.89 (11.2) 1970-71 to 1997-98
Master's degrees Women MASTW = 38,964 + 530.5GFTW (13.2)     0.99 1.1 AR1 0.91 (13.2) 1972-73 to 1997-98
Doctor's degrees Men DOCM = 18,405 + 26.5GFTM1 (1.6) - 2,796.3RUC (-0.2) 0.91 1.1 AR1 0.96 (24.2) 1970-71 to 1997-98
Doctor's degrees Women DOCW = - 1,632 + 0.3P3544W (2.4) + 35.6GFTW (5.8) 0.99 2.2 AR1 0.70 (3.8) 1972-73 to 1997-98
First professional degrees Men FPROM = 10,572 + 228.0FPFTM (7.1)     0.87 1.9 AR1 0.48 (2.4) 1970-71 to 1997-98
First professional degrees Women FPROW = - 1,257 + 288.9FPFTW (22.2) + 201.5FPPTW (1.9) 0.99 1.5 OLS   1971-72 to 1997-98
1For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1972, pages 251-252.
2AR1 indicates an estimation procedure for correcting the problem of first-order autocorrelation. OLS indicates Ordinary Least Squares. For a general discussion of the problem of autocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics, New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pages 315- 318.
Where:
ASSOCM = Number of associate's degrees awarded to men
ASSOCW = Number of associate's degrees awarded to women
BACHM = Number of bachelor's degress awarded to men
BACHW = Number of bachelor's degress awarded to women
MASTM = Number of master's degrees awarded to men
MASTW = Number of master's degrees awarded to women
DOCM = Number of doctor's degress awarded to men
DOCW = Number of doctor's degress awarded to women
FPROM = Number of first-professional degrees awarded to men
FPROW = Number of first-professional degrees awarded to women
UGFT2M = Full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands
UGPT2M = Part-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands
UGFT2W = Full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands
P1824M = Population of 18- to 24-year-old men, in thousands
P1824W = Population of 18- to 24-year-old women, in thousands
UGFT4M = Full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands
UGFT4W = Full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged 3 years, in thousands
GFTM = Full-time male graduate enrollment, in thousands
GFTW = Full-time female graduate enrollment, in thousands
P3544W = Population of 35- to 44-year-old women, in thousands
GFTM1 = Full-time male graduate enrollment lagged one year, in thousands
GFTW = Full-time female graduate enrollment, in thousands
RUC = Unemployment rate
FPFTM = Full-time male first-professional enrollment lagged 2 years, in thousands
FPFTW = Full-time female first-professional enrollment lagged 1 year, in thousands
FPPTW = Part-time female first-professional enrollment lagged 2 years, in thousands

NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Earned Degrees Conferred Model. (This table was prepared June 2001.)

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National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov
U.S. Department of Education