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Projections of Education Statistics to 2011
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Table A2.-Mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) by lead time for selected statistics in public elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions
Statistics Lead time (years)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
  Public elementary and secondary schools1
K-12 enrollment 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9
K-8 enrollment 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 4.3
9-12 enrollment 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6
High school graduates 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.9 2.6 3.7 3.6 4.1
Teachers 1.9 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.3 4.6
Total current expenditures2 1.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 3.1 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.7 2.6
Current expenditures per pupil in fall enrollment2 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 3.6 4.4 5.2 6.0 7.1 6.3
Current expenditures per pupil in ADA 2 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.0 3.3 4.0 4.9 5.8 7.1 6.4
Estimates average annual teacher salaries2 1.3 1.7 2.2 3.8 5.5 7.8 10.0 12.1 14.4 15.9
  Degree-granting institutions3
Total enrollment 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 2.2 3.0 (4) (4) (4) (4)
Men 1.0 1.5 1.6 2.2 3.4 5.8 (4) (4) (4) (4)
Women 1.6 1.8 1.6 0.9 1.2 0.7 (4) (4) (4) (4)
4-year 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.1 2.8 2.3 (4) (4) (4) (4)
2-year 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.7 4.0 (4) (4) (4) (4)
Associate's degrees 1.5 3.4 6.0 5.7 6.4 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
Bachelor's degrees 1.0 1.8 1.3 2.5 1.0 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
Master's degrees 1.0 3.8 2.8 2.1 2.1 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
Doctor's degrees 2.0 2.8 2.8 3.7 3.7 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
First-professional degrees 1.6 1.5 1.4 3.8 3.8 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
1MAPEs for enrollments and high school graduates were calculated using the last 18 editions of the Projections of Education Statistcs, teachers from the past 12 editions, and MAPEs for current expenditures and teacher salaries were calculated using projections from the last 11 editions of the Projections of Education Statistics.
2In constant dollars based on the Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.
3MAPEs for enrollments and earned degrees were calculated using the last 6 editions of the Projections of Education Statistcs.
4Not all actual values were available to calculate a MAPE of this lead time.
NOTE: Mean absolute percentage error is the average value of the absolute values of errors expressed in percentage terms. Calculations were made using unrounded numbers. Some data have been revised from previously published numbers.
SOURCES: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics, various issues. (This table was prepared May 2001.)

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