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Projections of Education Statistics to 2011
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Table A1.-Summary of forecast assumptions to 2011
Variables Middle alternative Low alternative High alternative
  Demographic Assumptions
Population Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series esti- mates, which assume a fertility rate of 2.13 births per woman by the year 2010, a yearly net migration ranging from 724,000 to 970,000 per year, and a further reduction in the mortality rate. Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
18- to 24-year-old population Average annual growth rate of 1.3% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
25- to 29-year-old population Average annual growth rate of 0.8% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
30- to 34-year-old population Average annual decline of 0.1% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
35- to 44-year-old population Average annual decline of 1.1% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
Public elementary enrollment Average annual decline of 0.1% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
Public secondary enrollment Average annual growth rate of 0.4% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
Undergraduate enrollment Average annual growth rate of 1.6% Average annual growth rate of 1.3% Average annual growth rate of 1.8%
Graduate enrollment Average annual growth rate of 1.0% Average annual growth rate of 0.8% Average annual growth rate of 1.3%
First-professional enrollment Average annual growth rate of 1.0% Average annual growth rate of 0.8% Average annual growth rate of 1.3%
Full-time-equivalent enrollment Average annual growth rate of 1.6% Average annual growth rate of 1.3% Average annual growth rate of 1.9%
  Economic Assumptions
Disposable income per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range be- tween 2.2% and 3.8% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.7%. Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.7% and 2.9% with an annu- al compound growth rate of 2.4%. Annual percent changes range be- tween 2.6% and 5.2% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.9%.
Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range be- tween -2.8% and 2.3% with an annual compound growth rate of 0.7%. Annual percent changes range be- tween -3.4% and 2.9% with an annual compound growth rate of 0.3%. Annual percent changes range be- tween -2.4% and 2.8% with an annual compound growth rate of 0.9%.
Inflation rate Inflation rate ranges between 1.6% and 3.2%. Inflation rate ranges between 1.6% and 3.5%. Inflation rate ranges between 2.0% and 2.6%.
Personal taxes and nontax re- ceipts to state and local govern- ments per capita in constant dollars Annual percent changes range be- tween -2.6% and 4.2% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.8%. Annual percent changes range be- tween -3.6% and 5.8% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.3%. Annual percent changes range be- tween -1.1% and 5.6% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.9%.
  Unemployment Rate (Men)
Age 18 to 19 Remains between 13.1% and 15.9% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
Age 20 to 24 Remains between 8.1% and 10.2% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
Age 25 and over Remains between 3.1% and 4.2% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
  Unemployment Rate (Women)
Age 18 to 19 Remains between 10.8% and 13.0% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
Age 20 to 24 Remains between 8.0% and 9.6% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
Age 25 and over Remains between 3.0% and 4.0% Same as middle alternative Same as middle alternative
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000; and DRIoWEFA, "U.S. Quarterly Model" (This table was prepared June 2001.)

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National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov
U.S. Department of Education