| Table A1.-Summary of forecast assumptions to 2011
|
| Variables | Middle alternative | Low alternative | High alternative |
| | Demographic Assumptions |
| Population | Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series esti- mates, which assume a fertility rate of 2.13 births per woman by the year 2010, a yearly net migration ranging from 724,000 to 970,000 per year, and a further reduction in the mortality rate. | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| 18- to 24-year-old population | Average annual growth rate of 1.3% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| 25- to 29-year-old population | Average annual growth rate of 0.8% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| 30- to 34-year-old population | Average annual decline of 0.1% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| 35- to 44-year-old population | Average annual decline of 1.1% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| Public elementary enrollment | Average annual decline of 0.1% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| Public secondary enrollment | Average annual growth rate of 0.4% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| Undergraduate enrollment | Average annual growth rate of 1.6% | Average annual growth rate of 1.3% | Average annual growth rate of 1.8% |
| Graduate enrollment | Average annual growth rate of 1.0% | Average annual growth rate of 0.8% | Average annual growth rate of 1.3% |
| First-professional enrollment | Average annual growth rate of 1.0% | Average annual growth rate of 0.8% | Average annual growth rate of 1.3% |
| Full-time-equivalent enrollment | Average annual growth rate of 1.6% | Average annual growth rate of 1.3% | Average annual growth rate of 1.9% |
| | Economic Assumptions |
| Disposable income per capita in constant dollars | Annual percent changes range be- tween 2.2% and 3.8% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.7%. | Annual percent changes range be- tween 1.7% and 2.9% with an annu- al compound growth rate of 2.4%. | Annual percent changes range be- tween 2.6% and 5.2% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.9%. |
| Education revenue receipts from state sources per capita in constant dollars | Annual percent changes range be- tween -2.8% and 2.3% with an annual compound growth rate of 0.7%. | Annual percent changes range be- tween -3.4% and 2.9% with an annual compound growth rate of 0.3%. | Annual percent changes range be- tween -2.4% and 2.8% with an annual compound growth rate of 0.9%. |
| Inflation rate | Inflation rate ranges between 1.6% and 3.2%. | Inflation rate ranges between 1.6% and 3.5%. | Inflation rate ranges between 2.0% and 2.6%. |
| Personal taxes and nontax re- ceipts to state and local govern- ments per capita in constant dollars | Annual percent changes range be- tween -2.6% and 4.2% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.8%. | Annual percent changes range be- tween -3.6% and 5.8% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.3%. | Annual percent changes range be- tween -1.1% and 5.6% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.9%. |
| | Unemployment Rate (Men) |
| Age 18 to 19 | Remains between 13.1% and 15.9% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| Age 20 to 24 | Remains between 8.1% and 10.2% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| Age 25 and over | Remains between 3.1% and 4.2% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| | Unemployment Rate (Women) |
| Age 18 to 19 | Remains between 10.8% and 13.0% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| Age 20 to 24 | Remains between 8.0% and 9.6% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| Age 25 and over | Remains between 3.0% and 4.0% | Same as middle alternative | Same as middle alternative |
| SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000; and DRIoWEFA, "U.S. Quarterly Model" (This table was prepared June 2001.) |
