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Projections of Education Statistics to 2011
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Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2011
is the 30th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2010 and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2011. In addition, this report includes projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2011 at the state level. These projections were produced to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states.

The projections presented in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 census, but exclude the net undercount of 4 to 5 million. The revised population projections developed by the Census Bureau also reflect the incorporation of the 1999 estimates as well as the latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration, and the mortality rate. The population projections are not based on the 2000 census data. Projections of national population data are not scheduled for release until 2002.

This report contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The projections are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. The cohort survival and enrollment rate models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from the National Center for Education Statistics and Census Bureau. The exponential smoothing models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The econometric models use projections of exogenous variables from the company, DRI*WEFA, Inc., an economic forecasting service. Therefore, assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.

Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes.

In the forecast summary, highlights for key education statistics are presented. A summary of the projections is available in a pocket-sized folder, Pocket Projections 2011.

Valena W. Plisko, Associate Commissioner
Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division
August 2001

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National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov
U.S. Department of Education