Projections of Education Statistics to 2011 is the 30th report
in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections
shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2010 and
includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting
institutions. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates,
teachers, and expenditures to the year 2011. In addition, this report
includes projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment
and high school graduates to the year 2011 at the state level. These
projections were produced to provide researchers, policy analysts,
and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent
methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections
prepared in individual states.
The projections presented in this report reflect revisions influenced by the
1990 census, but exclude the net undercount of 4 to 5 million.
The revised population projections developed by the Census Bureau
also reflect the incorporation of the 1999 estimates as well as
the latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration,
and the mortality rate. The population projections are not based
on the 2000 census data. Projections of national population data
are not scheduled for release until 2002.
This report contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The projections are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. The cohort survival and enrollment rate models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from the National Center for Education Statistics and Census Bureau. The exponential smoothing models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The econometric models use projections of exogenous variables from the company, DRIWEFA, Inc., an economic forecasting service. Therefore, assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.
Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes.
In the forecast summary, highlights for key education statistics are presented. A summary of the projections is available in a pocket-sized folder, Pocket Projections 2011.
Valena W. Plisko, Associate Commissioner
Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division
August 2001
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