A3. Earned Degrees Conferred
Projections of associate's, bachelor's, master's, doctor's, and first-professional degrees by sex were based on demographic models that relate degree awards to college-age populations and college enrollment by level enrolled and attendance status.
Associate's Degrees
Associate's degree projections by sex were based on undergraduate
enrollment by attendance status in 2-year institutions. Results
of the regression analysis used to project associate degrees by
sex are shown in table A3.1.
Bachelor's Degrees
Bachelor's degree projections by sex were based on the 18- to
24-year-old population and undergraduate enrollment by attendance
status in 4-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis
used to project bachelor's degrees by sex are shown in table
A3.1.
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Master's Degrees
Master's degree projections by sex were based on full-time graduate
enrollment by sex. Results of the regression analysis used to
project master's degrees by sex are shown in table
A3.1.
Doctor's Degrees
Doctor's degree projections for men were based on full-time
male graduate enrollment and the unemployment rate. Doctor's degree
projections for women were based on the 35- to 44-year-old population
of women and full-time female graduate enrollment. The results
of the regression analysis used to project doctor's degrees by
sex are shown in table A3.1.
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First-Professional Degrees
First-professional degree projections by sex were based on first-professional
enrollment by attendance status in 4-year institutions. Results
of the regression analysis used to project first-professional
degrees by sex are shown in table
A3.1.
Methodological Tables
These tables describe equations used to calculate projections
(table A3.1), and basic assumptions
underlying projections (table
A3.2).
Projection Accuracy
An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in
the past 6 editions of Projections of Education Statistics
indicates that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate's
degrees were 1.5 percent for 1 year out, 3.4 percent for 2 years
out, and 6.4 percent for 5 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction,
this means that one would expect the projection to within 1.5
percent of the actual value, on the average. MAPEs for bachelor's
degree projections were 1.0 percent for 1 year out, 1.8 percent
for 2 years out, and 1.0 percent for 5 years out. MAPEs for master's
degrees were 1.0, 3.8, and 2.1, respectively. For doctor's degrees,
the MAPEs were 2.0, 2.8, and 3.7 percent, respectively. For first-professional
degrees, the MAPEs were 1.6, 1.5, and 3.8 percent, respectively.
For more information on the mean absolute percentage errors, see
table A2.
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