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Projections of Education Statistics to 2011
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A3. Earned Degrees Conferred

Projections of associate's, bachelor's, master's, doctor's, and first-professional degrees by sex were based on demographic models that relate degree awards to college-age populations and college enrollment by level enrolled and attendance status.

Associate's Degrees

Associate's degree projections by sex were based on undergraduate enrollment by attendance status in 2-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis used to project associate degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.

Bachelor's Degrees

Bachelor's degree projections by sex were based on the 18- to 24-year-old population and undergraduate enrollment by attendance status in 4-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis used to project bachelor's degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.

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Master's Degrees

Master's degree projections by sex were based on full-time graduate enrollment by sex. Results of the regression analysis used to project master's degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.

Doctor's Degrees

Doctor's degree projections for men were based on full-time male graduate enrollment and the unemployment rate. Doctor's degree projections for women were based on the 35- to 44-year-old population of women and full-time female graduate enrollment. The results of the regression analysis used to project doctor's degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.

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First-Professional Degrees

First-professional degree projections by sex were based on first-professional enrollment by attendance status in 4-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis used to project first-professional degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.

Methodological Tables

These tables describe equations used to calculate projections (table A3.1), and basic assumptions underlying projections (table A3.2).

Projection Accuracy

An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in the past 6 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for associate's degrees were 1.5 percent for 1 year out, 3.4 percent for 2 years out, and 6.4 percent for 5 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to within 1.5 percent of the actual value, on the average. MAPEs for bachelor's degree projections were 1.0 percent for 1 year out, 1.8 percent for 2 years out, and 1.0 percent for 5 years out. MAPEs for master's degrees were 1.0, 3.8, and 2.1, respectively. For doctor's degrees, the MAPEs were 2.0, 2.8, and 3.7 percent, respectively. For first-professional degrees, the MAPEs were 1.6, 1.5, and 3.8 percent, respectively. For more information on the mean absolute percentage errors, see table A2.

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National Center for Education Statistics - http://nces.ed.gov
U.S. Department of Education