|
| Table A3.1.-Equations for earned degrees conferred |
| Dependent Variable |
Equation |
R 2 |
Durbin-Watson statistic1 |
Estimation technique2 |
Rho |
Time period |
Associate's degrees
Men |
ASSOCM = 109,504 + 51.8UGFT2M + 39.0UGPT2M
|
0.80 |
1.6 |
AR1 |
0.71
(3.9) |
1970-71 to
1996-97 |
| (1.2) (2.1) |
|
|
|
Associate's degrees
Women |
ASSOCW = 84,470 + 193.4UGFT2W
|
0.98 |
1.3 |
AR1 |
0.98
(39.2) |
1970-71 to
1996-97 |
| (6.0) |
|
|
|
| Bachelor's degrees Men |
BACHM = 251,262 - 10.7P1824M + 167.7UGFT4M
|
0.88 |
1.7 |
AR1 |
0.64
(3.9) |
1970-71 to
1996-97 |
| (-3.2) (5.4) |
|
|
|
| Bachelor's degrees Women |
BACHW = 245,034 - 17.7P1824W + 231.2UGFT4W
|
0.99 |
1.3 |
AR1 |
0.69
(4.7) |
1970-71 to
1996-97 |
| (-4.4) (20.2) |
|
|
|
| Master's degrees Men |
MASTM = 37,572 + 394.0GFTM
|
0.91 |
1.3 |
AR1 |
0.89
(10.9) |
1970-71 to
1996-97 |
| (4.4) |
|
|
|
| Master's degrees Women |
MASTW = 38,682 + 532.1GFTW
|
0.99 |
1.0 |
AR1 |
0.91
(13.2) |
1972-73 to
1996-97 |
| (12.3) |
|
|
|
| Doctor's degrees Men |
DOCM = 18,241 + 28.0GFTM1 - 41.9RUC
|
0.91 |
1.0 |
AR1 |
0.96
(24.6)
|
1970-71 to
1996-97 |
| (1.6) (-0.3) |
|
|
|
| Doctor's degrees Women |
DOCW = - 1,638 + 0.3P3544W + 35.8GFTW
|
0.99 |
2.2 |
AR1 |
0.70
(3.6) |
1972-73 to
1996-97 |
| (2.3) (5.6) |
|
|
|
| First professional degrees Men |
FPROM = 5,610 + 260.4FPFTM
|
0.91 |
2.1 |
AR1 |
0.53
(2.8) |
1970-71 to
1996-97 |
| (8.5) |
|
|
|
| First professional degrees Women |
FPROW = - 1,416 + 289.6FPFTW + 213.9FPPTW
|
0.99 |
1.5 |
OLS |
|
1971-72 to
1996-97 |
| (18.9) (1.6) |
|
|
|
1For an explanation of the Durbin-Watson statistic, see J. Johnston, Econometric Methods, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1972, pages 251-252.
2AR1 indicates an estimation procedure for correcting the problem of first-order autocorrelation. OLS indicates Ordinary Least Squares. For a general discussion of the problem ofautocorrelation, and the method used to forecast in the presence of autocorrelation, see G. Judge, W. Hill, R. Griffiths, H. Lutkepohl, and 'and T. Lee, The Theory and Practice of Econometrics , New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1985, pages 315- 318. |
| Where: | | | ASSOCM | = Number of associate's degrees awarded to men | | ASSOCW | = Number of associate's degrees awarded to women | | BACHM | = Number of bachelor's degress awarded to men | | BACHW | = Number of bachelor's degress awarded to women | | MASTM | = Number of master's degrees awarded to men | | MASTW | = Number of master's degrees awarded to women | | DOCM | = Number of doctor's degress awarded to men | | DOCW | = Number of doctor's degress awarded to women | | FPROM | = Number of first-professional degrees awarded to men | | FPROW | = Number of first-professional degrees awarded to women | | UGFT2M | = Full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands | | UGPT2M | = Part-time male undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands | | UGFT2W | = Full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 2-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands | | P1824M | = Population of 18- to 24-year-old men, in thousands | | P1824W | = Population of 18- to 24-year-old women, in thousands | | UGFT4M | = Full-time male undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged 2 years, in thousands | | UGFT4W | = Full-time female undergraduate enrollment in 4-year institutions, lagged 3 years, in thousands | | GFTM | = Full-time male graduate enrollment, in thousands | | GFTW | = Full-time female graduate enrollment, in thousands | | P3544W | = Population of 35- to 44-year-old women, in thousands | | GFTM1 | = Full-time male graduate enrollment lagged one year, in thousands | | GFTW | = Full-time female graduate enrollment, in thousands | | RUC | = Unemployment rate | | FPFTM | = Full-time male first-professional enrollment lagged 2 years, in thousands | | FPFTW | = Full-time female first-professional enrollment lagged 1 year, in thousands | | FPPTW | = Part-time female first-professional enrollment lagged 2 years, in thousands | |
NOTE: R2 indicates the coefficient of determination. Numbers in parentheses are t-statistics.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Earned Degrees Conferred Model. (This table was prepared March 2000.) |
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