| Chart 1.-Summary of forecast assumptions to 2010 |
| Variables |
Middle alternative |
Low alternative |
High alternative |
| Demographic Assumptions |
|
| Population |
Projections are consistent with the Census Bureau middle series esti- mates, which assume a fertility rate of 2.12 births per woman by the year 2010, a yearly net migration ranging from 960,000 to 720,000 per year, and a further reduction in the mortality rate. |
Same as middle alternative |
Same as middle alternative |
| 18- to 24-year-old population |
Average annual growth rate of 1.4% |
Same as middle alternative |
Same as middle alternative |
| 25- to 29-year-old population |
Average annual growth rate of 0.5% |
Same as middle alternative |
Same as middle alternative |
| 30- to 34-year-old population |
Average annual decline of 0.5% |
Same as middle alternative |
Same as middle alternative |
| 35- to 44-year-old population |
Average annual decline of 1.0% |
Same as middle alternative |
Same as middle alternative |
| Public elementary enrollment |
Average annual decline of 0.1% |
Same as middle alternative |
Same as middle alternative |
| Public secondary enrollment |
Average annual growth rate of 0.5% |
Same as middle alternative |
Same as middle alternative |
| Undergraduate enrollment |
Average annual growth rate of 1.6% |
Average annual growth rate of 1.4% |
Average annual growth rate of 1.9% |
| Graduate enrollment |
Average annual growth rate of 1.0% |
Average annual growth rate of 0.8% |
Average annual growth rate of 1.4% |
| First-professional enrollment |
Average annual growth rate of 0.8% |
Average annual growth rate of 0.7% |
Average annual growth rate of 1.2% |
| Full-time-equivalent enrollment |
Average annual growth rate of 1.6% |
Average annual growth rate of 1.4% |
Average annual growth rate of 1.9% |
| Economic Assumptions |
|
| Disposable income per capitain constant dollars |
Annual percent changes range be-tween 1.8% and 2.7% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.3%. |
Annual percent changes range be-tween 0.5% and 2.4% with an annual compound growth rate of 1.4%. |
Annual percent changes range between 2.6% and 3.9% with an annual compound growth rate of 3.3%. |
| Education revenue receiptsfrom state sources per capita inconstant dollars |
Annual percent changes range between -0.5% and 2.6% with an annual compound growth rate of 0.6%. |
Annual percent changes range be-tween -1.7% and 2.5% with an annualcompound growth rate of 0.0%. |
Annual percent changes range be-tween 0.1% and 2.7% with an annualcompound growth rate of 1.2%. |
| Inflation rate |
Inflation rate ranges between 2.2% and 2.7%. |
Inflation rate ranges between 1.7% and 2.7%. |
Inflation rate ranges between 0.7% and 2.1%. |
| Personal taxes and nontax re-ceipts to state and local govern-ments per capita in constantdollars |
Annual percent changes range between 0.1% and 3.3% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.6%. |
Annual percent changes range between -2.0% and 2.8% with an annual compound growth rate of 1.4%. |
Annual percent changes range between 0.8% and 4.4% with an annual compound growth rate of 4.1%. |
| Sum of personal taxes and nontax receipts and indirect business taxes and tax accruals (excluding property taxes) to state and local Governments per capita in constant dollars |
Annual percent changes range be-tween 1.4% and 3.1% with an annual compound growth rate of 2.3%. |
Annual percent changes range between -0.7% and 2.0% with an annual compound growth rate of 1.1%. |
Annual percent changes range between 2.6% and 4.7% with an annual compound growth rate of 3.6%. |
| Unemployment Rate (Men) |
|
| Age 18 to 19 |
Remains between 12.9% and 16.0% |
Remains between 13.0% and 20.0% |
Remains between 12.4% and 15.3% |
| Age 20 to 24 |
Remains between 7.2% and 9.0% |
Remains between 7.2% and 12.1% |
Remains between 6.8% and 8.7% |
| Age 25 and over |
Remains between 2.8% and 3.7% |
Remains between 2.8% and 5.5% |
Remains between 2.6% and 3.5% |
| Unemployment Rate (Women) |
|
| Age 18 to 19 |
Remains between 11.4% and 12.5% |
Remains between 11.4% and 15.1% |
Remains between 11.3% and 12.4% |
| Age 20 to 24 |
Remains between 7.0% and 7.8% |
Remains between 7.0% and 9.8% |
Remains between 6.8% and 7.8% |
| Age 25 and over |
Remains between 3.2% and 3.7% |
Remains between 3.2% and 4.9% |
Remains between 3.0% and 3.7% |
