Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2010 is the 29th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2009 and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2010.

In addition, this report includes projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2010 at the state level. These projections were produced to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed with a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states.

The projections presented in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 census, but exclude the net undercount of 4 to 5 million. The revised population projections developed by the Bureau of the Census also reflect the incorporation of the 1999 estimates and latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate.

This report contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national projections. The projections are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. The enrollment rate model uses population estimates and projections from the Bureau of the Census. The exponential smoothing models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The econometric models use projections of exogenous variables from the company, Standard and Poor's DRI, an economic forecasting service. Therefore, assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics.

Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes.

In the forecast summary, national and state-level highlights and key demographic and economic assumptions underlying the projections are presented in chart 1. A summary of the projections is available in a pocket-sized folder, Pocket Projections 2010.

Valena W. Plisko, Associate Commissioner

Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division

August 2000

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