Between 1998 and 2010, the number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools is projected to rise, primarily due to the increase in school enrollment during this period. Increases are expected in the numbers of both elementary and secondary teachers. The number of secondary teachers will increase at a faster rate than the number of elementary teachers. The numbers of both public and private teachers are projected to grow. The projections do not take into account increases in the number of teachers and enrollment due to the effects of proposed initiatives to reduce class sizes.
Three alternative projections of the numbers of elementary and secondary teachers were developed to indicate a range of possible outcomes. These alternatives are based on varying economic assumptions about the growth path for one of the key variables in the public school teacher models-education revenue receipts from state sources per capita. Under the middle alternative, education revenue receipts from state sources per capita is projected to increase by 14 percent between 1998 and 2010. The low alternative assumes that education revenue receipts from state sources per capita will increase by 8 percent over the projection period. The high alternative assumes that education revenue receipts from state sources per capita will increase by 20 percent during this period. The other variables in the teacher model are elementary enrollment and secondary enrollment in public schools. Between 1998 and 2010, secondary enrollment is projected to increase by 6 percent, while elementary will decrease around 2 percent (table 2). The enrollment variables are the same for all three alternatives.
Average annual rate of change (inpercent)
1985-98
Projected 1998-2010
Low
Middle
High
Total
1.8
0.1
0.3
0.5
Elementary
2.2
-0.1
0.1
0.3
Secondary
1.2
0.6
0.7
0.9
Public
1.9
0.1
0.3
0.5
Private
1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Elementary and Secondary School Teachers
The number of teachers in elementary and secondary schools increased from 2.55 million in 1985 to about 3.22 million in 1998, an increase of 26 percent (table 41 and figure 45). Under the middle alternative, the number of teachers is projected to increase to 3.35 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent, for a 4-percent increase over the projection period. Under the low alternative, the number of teachers is projected to increase to 3.27 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.1 percent. Under the high alternative, classroom teachers are projected to increase to 3.43 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent.
The number of elementary teachers increased from 1.48 million in 1985 to 1.98 million in 1998, an increase of 33 percent (figure 47). Under the middle alternative, the number of elementary teachers is projected to increase to 2.0 million by 2010, an increase of 1 percent from 1998; this increase represents an average annual rate of 0.1 percent per year. Under the low alternative, the number of elementary teachers is projected to increase to 1.95 million by the year 2010, decreasing at an average annual rate of 0.1 percent. Under the high alternative, elementary teachers are projected to increase to 2.05 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent.
The number of secondary teachers increased from 1.07 million in 1985 to about 1.24 million in 1998, an increase of 16 percent. Under the middle alternative, the number of secondary teachers is projected to increase to 1.35 million by the year 2010, resulting in an increase of 9 percent. This increase will represent an average annual rate of 0.7 percent over the projection period. Under the low alternative, the number of secondary teachers is projected to increase to 1.32 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent. Under the high alternative, secondary teachers are projected to increase to 1.38 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent.
Elementary and Secondary Teachers, by Control of School
The number of teachers in public elementary and secondary schools increased from 2.21 million in 1985 to about 2.83 million in 1998, an increase of 28 percent (table 41 and figure 49). Under the middle alternative, the number of teachers is projected to increase to 2.94 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.3 percent, for a 4-percent increase over the projection period. Under the low alternative, the number of classroom teachers is projected to increase to 2.87 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.1 percent. Under the high alternative, classroom teachers are projected to increase to 3.01 million by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent. Projections of elementary and secondary teachers in public schools that have been produced over the past 17 years are nearly as accurate as projections of public high school graduates, but less accurate than projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment that NCES has published over the same period. For more information, see appendix A4.
The number of elementary and secondary teachers in private schools was an estimated 391,000 in 1998. Under the middle alternative, this number is projected to 412,000 by the year 2010, an increase of 5 percent from 1998. This increase will represent an average annual rate of 0.4 percent. Under the low alternative, the number of private school teachers is projected to increase to 402,000 by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent. Under the high alternative, private school teachers are projected to increase to 422,000 by the year 2010, increasing at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent.
A broad relationship between the number of pupils and teachers can be described by the pupil/teacher ratio. The pupil/teacher ratios were computed based on elementary and secondary enrollment and the number of classroom teachers by organizational level.
The pupil/teacher ratio in elementary schools decreased from 19.1 in 1985 to 18.4 in 1989. It increased to 18.9 in 1995 followed by a decline to 17.8 in 1998 (table 42 and figure 51). Under the middle alternative, this ratio is projected to decline to 17.3 by the year 2010. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil/teacher ratio in elementary schools is expected to range between 16.9 and 17.8 by the year 2010. For secondary schools, the pupil/teacher ratio decreased from 15.6 in 1985 to 14.3 in 1989. It increased to about 14.8 in 1992. Then, it declined to 14.0 in 1998. Under the middle alternative, this ratio is projected to decrease to 13.6 by 2010. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil/teacher ratio in secondary schools is projected to range between 13.3 and 13.9 by the year 2010.
For public elementary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil/teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 18.0 in 1998 to 17.5 by the year 2010 (figure 52). Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil/teacher ratio in public elementary schools is projected to range between 17.1 and 18.0 by the year 2010. For public secondary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil/teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 14.2 in 1998 to 13.9 by 2010. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil/teacher ratio in public secondary schools is expected to range between 13.6 and 14.2 by the year 2010.
For private elementary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil/teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 16.6 in 1998 to 15.9 by the year 2010. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil/teacher ratio in private elementary schools is expected to range between 15.5 and 16.3 by the year 2010. For private secondary schools, under the middle alternative, the pupil/teacher ratio is projected to decrease from 11.6 in 1998 to 11.1 by the year 2010. Under the low and high alternatives, the pupil/teacher ratio in private secondary schools is projected to range between 10.9 and 11.4 by the year 2010.
Although private elementary and secondary teachers represented 12 percent of total elementary and secondary teachers in 1998, private school enrollment was 11 percent of total enrollment. This indicates that private schools have more teachers for a given number of students than do public schools; that is, private school pupil/teacher ratios are smaller than public school pupil/teacher ratios.
