|
Chapter 3
High School Graduates
National
The number of high school graduates is projected to increase 12 percent ove the projection period (figure 34). Increases in the number of graduates are expected for both public and private schools. The significant rise in the number of graduates reflects the increase in the 18-year-old population over the projection period, rather than changes in the graduation rates of 12th graders.
However, projections of graduates could be impacted by changes in policies affecting graduation requirements. Projections of public school graduates that have been produced over the past 17 years are less accurate than projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment, but more accurate than projections of earned degrees by level. For more information, see appendix A2.
Average annual rate of change (in percent)
| |
Projected |
| |
1984-85
to
1998-99 |
1998-99
to
2009-10 |
|
| Total |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| Public |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| Private |
0.5 |
1.0 |
Back To Top
Total High School Graduates
A high school graduate is defined as an individual who has received formal recognition from school authorities, by the granting of a diploma, for completing a prescribed course of studies at the secondary level school. This definition does not include other high school completers, high school equivalency recipients, or other diploma recipients.
The number of high school graduates from public and private schools decreased from 2.8 million in 1984-85 to 2.5 million in 1993-94 (table 33 and figure 35). Then, it increased to 2.8 million in 1998-99. The total number of high school graduates is projected to rise to 3.1 million by 2009-10, an increase of 12 percent from 1998-99, or an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent.
Back To Top
High School Graduates, by Control of Institution
The number of graduates of public high schools decreased from 2.5 million in 1984-85 to 2.2 million in 1993-94 (figure 31). Then, it increased to 2.5 million in 1998-99. Over the projection period, public high school graduates are projected to increase to 2.8 million by 2009-10, an increase of 12 percent from 1998-99, or an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent.
The number of graduates of private high schools is projected to increase from an estimated 290,000 in 1998-99 to 324,000 by 2009-10, an increase of 12 percent, or an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent.
Back To Top
State
The projected increases in public high school enrollment (grades 9 through 12) between 1999 and 2010 will cause corresponding increases in the number of public high school graduates. The number of public high school graduates is expected to increase by 12 percent between 1998-99 and 2009-10. This increase will be reflected in many states, with 33 states showing increases (table 34 and figure 38). Each region of the country is expected to reflect this increase in the number of public high school graduates. Projected trends in the number of public high school graduates by state could be impacted by changes in policies affecting graduation requirements.
The number of public high school graduates in the Northeast is expected to increase 11 percent between 1998-99 and 2009-10 (table 35 and figure 39). Large increases are expected in Connecticut (23 percent), Massachusetts (21 percent), New Hampshire (15 percent), and New Jersey (17 percent). Smaller increases are expected in New York (8 percent), Pennsylvania (4 percent), and Rhode Island (11 percent). Decreases are projected for Maine (8 percent) and Vermont (4 percent).
The number of public high school graduates in the Midwest is expected to increase by 4 percent between 1998-99 and 2009-10. Increases are expected in Illinois (18 percent) and Missouri (11 percent). Smaller increases are projected for Indiana (5 percent), Michigan (5 percent), and Minnesota (2 percent). Decreases are expected in Iowa (4 percent), Kansas (1 percent), Nebraska (7 percent), North Dakota (23 percent), Ohio (1 percent), South Dakota (28 percent), and Wisconsin (1 percent). Between 1998-99 and 2009-10, the number of public high school graduates in the South will increase by 13 percent. The largest increases are expected in Delaware (16 percent), Florida (28 percent), Georgia (23 percent), Maryland (19 percent), North Carolina (31 percent), Tennessee (10 percent), Texas (16 percent), and Virginia (14 percent). Other increases are projected for Alabama (0.4 percent), Kentucky (2 percent), and South Carolina (6 percent). Decreases are expected in the Arkansas (1 percent), District of Columbia (31 percent), Louisiana (10 percent), Mississippi (2 percent), Oklahoma ( 2 percent), and West Virginia (13 percent).
The number of high school graduates in the West is expected to increase, rising by 20 percent. The largest increases are expected in Alaska (19 percent), Arizona (48 percent), California (22 percent), Colorado (23 percent), Nevada (79 percent), and Washington (15 percent). Other increases are projected in Hawaii (7 percent), Idaho (2 percent), New Mexico (5 percent), and Oregon (9 percent). Decreases are projected for Montana (13 percent), Utah (1 percent), and Wyoming (19 percent).
Back To Top
|
