Projections of associate's, bachelor's, master's, doctor's, and first-professional degrees by sex were based on demographic models that relate degree awards to college-age populations and college enrollment by level enrolled and attendance status.
Associate's Degrees
Associate's degree projections by sex were based on undergraduate enrollment by attendance status in 2-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis used to project associate degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.
Bachelor's degree projections by sex were based on the 18- to 24-year-old population and undergraduate enrollment by attendance status in 4-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis used to project bachelor's degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.
Master's degree projections by sex were based on full-time graduate enrollment by sex. Results of the regression analysis used to project master's degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.
Doctor's degree projections for men were based on full-time male graduate enrollment and the unemployment rate. Doctor's degree projections for women were based on the 35- to 44-year-old population of women and full-time female graduate enrollment. The results of the regression analysis used to project doctor's degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.
First-professional degree projections by sex were based on first-professional enrollment by attendance status in 4-year institutions. Results of the regression analysis used to project first-professional degrees by sex are shown in table A3.1.
An analysis of projection errors from similar models used in the past 14 editions of Projections of Education Statistics indicates that mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) for bachelor's degree projections were 2.0 percent for 1 year out, 2.9 percent for 2 years out, and 6.1 percent for 5 years out. For the 1-year-out prediction, this means that one would expect the projection to be within 2.0 percent of the actual value, on the average. For first-professional degrees, the MAPEs were 2.3, 3.2, and 4.7 percent, respectively. For doctor's degrees, based on the past 13 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, the MAPEs were 2.5, 4.1, and 9.7 percent, respectively. MAPEs for master's degrees, based on the past 12 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, were 2.2, 4.0, and 11.7, respectively. MAPEs for associate's degrees, based on the past 10 editions of Projections of Education Statistics, were 2.9 percent for 1 year out, 3.9 percent for 2 years out, and 6.6 percent for 3 years out.
